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Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2022 12:48:16 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <ETJsOQdTSZmKen6wbnt0Eg@geopod-ismtpd-1-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= BADAKHSHAN: IEA Commander
 Defection Poses Limited Short-term Risk to NGOs
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Badakhshan Provinc=
e, Yaftal-e Sufla District</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								IEA Commander Defection Poses Limited Short-term Risk to NGOs						=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								18/09/2022 19:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 18 September, during night h=
ours, Abdul Hamid, the commander of the Investigation Unit within the Omari=
 Corps for Badakhshan Province, left Fayz Abad City for Yaftal-e Sufla Dist=
rict abandoned his position and left the IEA. He fled the command of his un=
it followed by another 15 men in two pickup truck-type vehicles. The party =
also took an unknown number of light and heavy firearms and ammunition. Rep=
ortedly, the former IEA commander and his men settled in Ert Village of Yaf=
tal-e Sufla District.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 20 September, at 0830 hrs, Fayz Abad=
 IEA officials sent a unit of their security forces to engage with the form=
er IEA commander in the Do Aaba area of Yaftal-e Sufla District. There, the=
 security forces established a VCP to prevent the previous IEA commander&rs=
quo;s potential movements. If the ongoing negotiations fail and the former =
IEA commander does not surrender, the security forces are authorised to car=
ry out military operations against Abdul Hamid and his followers.<br />&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 23 September, during noon hours, the=
 former IEA commander reportedly contacted NRF affiliates in Tajikistan and=
 was later seen in the Tang Shiw area of Maimai District. Given this develo=
pment, Fayz Abad officials requested air support from Kabul-based IEA force=
s, who sent a helicopter. The aircraft flew over Raghistan, Arghanjkhawa, M=
aimai, and Yaftal-e Sufla districts in an attempt to locate the breakaway I=
EA commander and his forces, without success.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The departure of the former IEA command=
er, from within the provincial security structures&rsquo; leadership, was n=
ot accompanied by a statement expressing the willingness to join the opposi=
tion, however, recent reports of communications with the NRF are likely to =
cause concern among provincial IEA officials. Reportedly, the IEA leadershi=
p planned to remove Abdul Hamid from his position as the commander of the I=
nvestigation Unit within the Omari Corps for Badakhshan Province. This, in =
addition to Abdul Hamid&rsquo;s reported disapproval of the IEA government&=
rsquo;s performance, is said to have pushed the former IEA commander to def=
ect.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Abdul Hamid is likely to join t=
he NRF. The ideological differences between the NRF and the IEA has seldom =
prevented defections from either side especially in several districts of Ba=
ghlan Province where OAGs continue to operate Given the motivation for his =
decision, Abdul Hamid might see armed opposition to the current administrat=
ion as an alternative, separately or jointly with other OAGs, mainly the NR=
F whom they reportedly communicate with. However, INSO could not independen=
tly confirm such an agreement was struck as of the time of writing.<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In the short term, given the small numb=
er of followers that Abdul Hamid commands, it is unlikely that this inciden=
t will result in a large-scale confrontation between the former IEA command=
er and the local security apparatus. Unless he is able to attract additiona=
l support and resources, negotiations between the two sides are a more like=
ly outcome. In this scenario, time is of the essence for both parties invol=
ved, with a slight advantage on Abdul Hamid&rsquo;s side, as IEA security f=
orces are being distracted by recent OAG attacks in the vicinity of Yaftal-=
e Sufla District. Once OAG attacks subside, the security forces are likely =
to reinitiate the search operations for the breakaway IEA commander and his=
 followers.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In the long term, and only if Abdul Ham=
id manages to avoid IEA&rsquo;s retaliation and get support from OAGs, the =
security forces might gradually witness more defections as disgruntled IEA =
members&rsquo; see the IEA as less likely to succeed in punishing secession=
 from the security apparatus. Badakhshan Province&rsquo;s geographically ch=
allenging landscape can impact the timeline of IEA&rsquo;s search operation=
 delaying or even determining the security forces to stop actively pursuing=
 Abdul Hamid. Should they fail to arrest the dissidents before the coming o=
f winter, the IEA is more likely to wait out their former members meanwhile=
 cutting the main supply routes and the cold weather forces Abdul Hamid and=
 his followers to look for help in populated areas.<br />&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Potential armed clashes between the for=
mer IEA commander and members of the local security forces would pose limit=
ed risks to civilians. Given the context, it is highly likely Abdul Hamid w=
ill remain in remote and unpopulated areas to conceal his position from the=
 IEA. Therefore, should the security forces discover and engage in a firefi=
ght with the former IEA commander and his followers, there is a low likelih=
ood of collateral impact for civilians, including NGO workers.</div>							=
	</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to maintain co=
nstant communications with a variety of trusted local actors in the areas w=
here they operate and to remain abreast with the most recent safety and sec=
urity developments.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Given the unpredictable character of ar=
med clashes, NGO staff members are further advised to remain aware of their=
 surroundings and identify safe structures that could serve as physical pro=
tection against projectiles, especially during movements through areas wher=
e safe havens have not been included in mission plans.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdouni</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafet=
y.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/26092022/#001								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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