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Date: Mon, 05 Sep 2022 04:38:48 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_WEST_SA <sa.west@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <K_m1-V5OQOKBevuq0Kxjrg@geopod-ismtpd-3-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - HERAT: Suicide Bomber Targets Well-Known Herat
 Cleric
To: "Dr. Sayed Musa Musawy" <musawy@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								<p>Afghanistan, Herat Province, Herat City, PD 8, <a href=3D"https:=
//goo.gl/maps/dnSs2GAeGP7Qj6nu5">Gazergah</a> Area</p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Explosion								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								02/09/2022 12:30								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At the time and location mentio=
ned above, an unknown individual approached a well-known religious figure n=
amed Mujib al-Rahman Ansari while he was on his way from his home to the Ga=
zergah Mosque, also known as Masjed Jomeh, to attend Friday congregational =
prayers. The man touched Ansari&rsquo;s hand to greet him, and detonated a =
BBIED.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">According to the official count, the bl=
ast killed 18 people and wounded 23 others. However, unofficial estimates r=
each 46 killed and 86 wounded. Figures are subject to change as wounded ind=
ividuals might succumb to their injuries. Fatalities and casualties include=
 several IEA members, as well as civilians, mostly male worshippers present=
 in the vicinity of the Gazergah Mosque. The blast also killed Ansari, his =
brother Habiburahman, and members of Ansari&rsquo;s security detail.<br /><=
br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Acting =
First Deputy Minister of Afghanistan for Economic Affairs, was present in H=
erat City at the time of the explosions to attend a conference that concern=
ed the economy. He was not among the casualties of the explosion.<br /><br =
/></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In the aftermath of the explosion, IEA =
forces cordoned off the area around the Gazergah Mosque. A road block was l=
ater established on the&nbsp;<a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/rSK4qRCA6P4V3SN=
J6">Khwaja Abdallah-e Ansari</a>&nbsp;Road connecting Herat City to Gazerga=
h. As the wounded were brought to Herat Regional Hospital in PD 1, a crowd =
of civilians and IEA members gathered by the gates of the hospital, tempora=
rily blocking traffic on the Khaja Ali Movafaq Avenue and on the street adj=
acent to the hospital, Sarak-e Wilayat.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The funeral took place in Gazergah area=
 in the afternoon of 03 September without incidents.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IS-KP is almost certainly respo=
nsible for the attack. An official claim of responsibility will most likely=
 be issued on media channels used by the movement, and IS-KP repeatedly exp=
ressed hostility against Ansari in the past. Although claims of responsibil=
ity are generally not conclusive proof of authorship, the IS-KP claim is li=
kely genuine. The modus operandi of the attack corresponds with past attack=
s carried out by IS-KP in other provinces of Afghanistan. In addition, the =
fact that a BBIED was used discounts the possibility of anti-IEA OAGs such =
as ALF or NRF being involved. Sibghatullah Ahmadi, the spokesman of the NRF=
, &ldquo;strongly condemned&rdquo; the suicide attack.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IS-KP highly likely conducted the attac=
k according to a precise plan, with the intention to kill Ansari. The perpe=
trators almost certainly noticed in advance that Ansari regularly attended =
Friday congregational prayers. Anecdotal reports suggested that the suicide=
 bomber had been a student in Ansari&rsquo;s madrassa, which would indicate=
 that the perpetrator was familiar with both the location of the attack, an=
d his target. Furthermore, the moment of the attack was also selected to ma=
ximize the number of casualties, as crowds routinely assemble for Friday co=
ngregational prayers at the Gazergah Mosque. In this manner, the perpetrato=
rs ensured that the BBIED would have a high impact, and receive substantial=
 media coverage.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is possible that IS-KP intended to t=
arget Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Acting First Deputy Minister of Afgha=
nistan for Economic Affairs. He was in Herat City during the BBIED attack, =
having attended a conference on economic matters shortly before the attack.=
 The perpetrators potentially expected Mullah Baradar to accompany Ansari t=
o the Friday prayers, intending the blast to kill both IEA members. Such an=
 attack would have achieved an even bigger resonance in Afghanistan and int=
ernationally. Even without directly targeting Mullah Baradar, IS-KP likely =
intended the killing of Ansari to serve as a direct threat against senior I=
EA leadership. Another purpose of the attack was likely to demonstrate to t=
he population that IS-KP remains active in the Western Region, and to try a=
nd attract recruits via media coverage of the incident.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The BBIED attack contrasts with past at=
tacks attributed to IS-KP in Herat City, indicating that the group might be=
 shifting its priority targets. Two IED attacks, on 22 January and 01 April=
, targeted the Hazara community of Herat. On 04 July, armed men attacked tw=
o busses bringing military personnel to army bases near Herat City. The BBI=
ED attack was the first large scale attack directly targeting a high-profil=
e IEA member in Herat, suggesting that, in Herat Province, IS-KP affiliates=
 shifted their focus from minority groups towards IEA members. IS-KP had an=
nounced on social media that it would target pro-IEA clerics, and already c=
onducted attacks targeting clerics in other provinces of Afghanistan. IS-KP=
 considered Ansari an enemy, even though Ansari&rsquo;s radical opinions ab=
out the place of women in society, his hostility to foreigners, and stance =
on hudud often corresponded with IS-KP&rsquo;s. The group called Ansari a t=
raitor, likely viewing him as a competitor on the field of radicalism. In a=
ddition, during the Loya Jirga held in Kabul early July, Ansari declared th=
at anyone with views diverging from the IEA&rsquo;s should be beheaded, whi=
ch directly concerned IS-KP members.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The attack seemed to have obliged the I=
EA to admit that IS-KP remains a persistent security concern that needs to =
be addressed. In Herat, the authorities have many times denied that IS-KP i=
s present. For instance, the IEA did not mention IS-KP&rsquo;s responsibili=
ty after the IED attacks of 22 February and 01 April, nor was the level of =
security forces augmented among the Hazara communities where both attacks h=
appened. In contrast, the BBIED attack is likely to provoke an increase in =
IEA forces&rsquo; posture in Herat City. Zabiullah Mujahid, the IEA spokesm=
an, released a statement mentioning Ansari&rsquo;s stand against the &ldquo=
;Kharijites&rdquo;, which designates IS-KP members, and pledged the destruc=
tion of the group.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Several IEA officials reportedly critic=
ized GDI for providing insufficient protection to Ansari, highlighting that=
 GDI has not been able to prevent the attack. Zabiullah Mujahid&rsquo;s sta=
tement largely consists of arguments that GDI did all it could to protect A=
nsari, providing him with a bulletproof vehicle, armed guards, and holding =
meetings with the scholar exclusively dedicated to his security. Further, G=
DI allegedly killed two IS-KP leaders and several of their followers in Her=
at and Farah provinces respectively, days before the BBIED attack took plac=
e. The fact that IS-KP succeeded in conducting the attack and attain their =
target despite increased security indicates that such attacks remain likely=
.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The risk of IS-KP-authored attacks agai=
nst NGOs and IO-affiliated people remains. The BBIED attack demonstrated th=
at IS-KP retains the ability to conduct attacks, and that IEA security forc=
es have not been able to eradicate the IS-KP threat in the Western Region a=
nd prevent attacks despite its efforts. In addition, IS-KP explicitly named=
 NGOs as a target in its booklet issued in mid-July. The movement published=
 a 121-pages propaganda booklet in which it issued calls to reject foreign =
aid and to target NGOs and IOs (see AFGHANISTAN/COUNTRYWIDE/R/31072022/#001=
). Given that recent IS-KP-authored attacks in Herat focused on relatively =
easy targets where high casualties could be achieved, NGOs are unlikely to =
be the top IS-KP&rsquo;s priority target. IS-KP has ample ideological groun=
d for attacking NGOs, which would also guarantee important media coverage a=
nd publicity.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Finally, IEA forces and GDI are likely =
to heighten their security posture in Herat City, especially around Herat&r=
squo;s main mosques and during gatherings, and increase scrutiny at checkpo=
ints. This is likely to cause delays to NGO vehicles passing checkpoints, a=
s IEA forces are likely to view with heightened suspicion those whose views=
 were not aligned with Ansari&rsquo;s, a category which largely includes NG=
Os. IEA forces might also conduct search operations more frequently, in an =
effort to capture or eliminate suspected OAG members. It is unlikely, howev=
er, that IEA forces will have the capacity or the willingness to conduct ex=
tensive verification of all public and private vehicles in Herat City, chec=
king passengers and their belongings. In consequence, IED and BBIED attacks=
 will likely remain relatively easy to carry out.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to limit time =
spend at locations that might be in line with the IS-KP targeting profile, =
including IEA checkpoints and large public gatherings, whenever possible. M=
ore specifically, gathering areas should be avoided at peak hours, which pr=
esent the most attractive periods for attacks. NGO staff members moving at =
night should also be prepared to explain their activities to IEA members if=
 questioned.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Strict adherence to humanitarian princi=
ples remains a key risk mitigation measure. &nbsp;In the current context, N=
GOs are reminded to maintain a neutral position, and avoid being seen as su=
pportive of specific parties via pictures or public statements. Throughout =
the country, IS-KP has repeatedly targeted clerics who voiced support for t=
he authorities, which they consider enemies. As such, neutrality and impart=
iality remain particularly vital guiding principles.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to maintain awareness =
of OAG-authored attacks. NGO safety managers should speak with local staff,=
 partners, and appropriate officials about IS-KP presence and current threa=
t level, including risk to NGOs.&nbsp;NGOs are further advised to inform st=
aff of a possibly increased IEA security posture.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs staff members should remain cognis=
ant about the threat of IED and BBIED attacks, and incorporate basic securi=
ty strategies in their daily routines and behaviour. If attending public ga=
therings or other events where there is a risk of attacks, maintain high si=
tuational awareness, including constantly monitoring the immediate surround=
ings for suspicious behaviour or items and react immediately to such suspic=
ion. Furthermore, always know the layout of the location visited and note p=
ossible escape routes and cover to be used in case of need.<br /><br /></di=
v>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Whenever this is possible, NGOs are adv=
ised to have their staff trained on ERW and IED awareness, so as to be bett=
er able to detect and signal suspicious items in public areas.<br /><br /><=
/div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Finally, NGO staff are also reminded to=
 avoid establishing routines and predictable patterns of movement within an=
d between cities in the Western Region, and strictly implement security pro=
tocols. This includes varying the time of departure from guesthouses to off=
ices, avoiding repeated visits to specific locations at a set time, and tra=
velling between cities on an irregular schedule.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA West, Oscar Janssens de Bisthoven<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:s=
a.west@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.west@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/WEST/R/05092022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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