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Delivery-date: Tue, 30 Aug 2022 09:39:09 -0400
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Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2022 13:38:28 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <4FIMRZGoQ9eZo10gejcaRw@geopod-ismtpd-2-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= CENTRAL: Observance Of IMF
 Withdrawal Anniversary
To: Rohullah Azimi <rohullah.azimi@jack.ngo>

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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Central Region, Mu=
ltiple Provinces</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Observance Of IMF Withdrawal Anniversary								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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								31/08/2022 08:00								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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<p>On 31 August, IEA authorities plan to commemorate the one-year anniversa=
ry of the withdrawal of international military forces (IMF) with official g=
atherings in multiple provincial capitals of the Central Region.<br /><br /=
>In Kabul, official celebrations are expected to be held either at the <a h=
ref=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/GXSqyija7a7wiJ9h8">Presidential Palace</a>, <a h=
ref=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/MwUzxmfbhjoyDt28A">Ministry of Defence</a>, or <=
a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/2pQQJcSyy85aAYMv7">RTA Headquarters</a>. Smal=
ler, ad hoc gatherings of rank-and-file IEA members may also be observed at=
 smaller mosques or public gathering spaces, including <a href=3D"https://g=
oo.gl/maps/8fqX2E1UdAk64PbD8">Massoud Square</a>, and <a href=3D"https://go=
o.gl/maps/Tr5mtHTvaHhQBjLA9">Abdul Haq Square</a>. <br /><br />From Massoud=
 Square, IEA forces may also conduct a short parade along Airport Road duri=
ng the course of the day, blocking access to civilian traffic. As of the ti=
me of writing, IEA forces have cordoned off Airport Road between Massoud Sq=
uare and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/fp6HdC3hivfjLAkr6">Aburayhan Square=
</a>, as well as between Aburayhan Square and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/map=
s/cFiJWe9BYJyw5KbH6">Char Rahi Shahid Square</a>.&nbsp;<br /><br />In Parwa=
n Province, IEA officials are expected to hold a large gathering and milita=
ry parade at <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/3pVoYN1gxm37VKfW7">Bagram Airba=
se</a>, which hosted a large number of IMF troops before August 2021. In th=
e run-up to 31 August, an increased number of IEA forces has been reported =
near the airbase. Additional checkpoints may also be encountered along the =
Kabul-Bagram Highway around 31 August.<br /><br />In Logar Province, an off=
icial IEA-sponsored event that will be open to the public is scheduled to t=
ake place at the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/33nQ5ZSrZANy6z1z5">Soccer F=
ield</a> in Pul-e Alam City from approximately 0800 hrs onward. A heightene=
d presence of IEA forces has been noted in the vicinity of the compound as =
of 29 August, along with additional mobile checkpoints.<br /><br />In Kapis=
a Province, IEA officials are expected to organise a small closed event at =
the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/MyAyDs86GpFpEm2b9">Provincial Governor's=
 office</a> in Mahmud-e Raqi.<br /><br />In Bamyan Province, authorities wi=
ll hold a prayer ceremony at the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/TJXyfaCazKP=
qB8xS6">Gymnasium</a> in PD 1 of Bamyan City.<br /><br />No specific events=
 have been confirmed in Nili or Maydanshahr City of Daykundi and Wardak Pro=
vince, however, spontaneous gatherings and localised parades may also occur=
 near government buildings or at key public venues.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p>Similar to the recent Independence Day and the commemoration of the one-=
year anniversary of the IEA takeover on 15 August, high-level IEA events ar=
e likely to be accompanied by more spontaneous gatherings and smaller parad=
es of rank-and-file IEA members along main roads. Authorities may also agai=
n close down roads outside high-profile venues, such as the Presidential Pa=
lace and the RTA Headquarters in Kabul City, without prior notice, resultin=
g in increased traffic congestion throughout population centres in the Cent=
ral Region.<br /><br />IEA forces may also increase their physical footprin=
t in provincial capitals through additional checkpoints and patrols, to cou=
nter potential planned OAG operations against IEA targets. Authorities have=
 thus far not repeated the shutdown of telecommunications networks witnesse=
d throughout Kabul City during Ashura Day on 08 August, but maintain the ab=
ility to implement similar blackouts, if deemed necessary.<br /><br />Furth=
ermore, controls at checkpoints may intensify on 31 August, including at en=
try points into cities. IEA members may also bar trucks and large buses fro=
m entering cities, in particular Kabul.<br /><br />Given the symbolic signi=
ficance of the day for the authorities, OAGs may seek to conduct attacks ag=
ainst IEA targets around 31 August. This risk is assessed to be comparable =
to the previous 15 August and Independence Day celebrations and the same po=
tential risks apply (see AFGHANISTAN/COUNTRYWIDE/R/12082022/#001 and AFGHAN=
ISTAN/CENTRAL/R/18082022/#001). IS-KP affiliates have repeatedly demonstrat=
ed their capability and intent to conduct IDF attacks against hardened high=
-profile venues, while also deploying BBIEDs to target large public gatheri=
ngs.<br /><br />Throughout the night leading up to 31 August and the date i=
tself, periodic celebratory SAF may occur inside population centres, primar=
ily from IEA members. Celebratory SAF remains a risk to NGO staff members a=
nd other civilians, given its often unclear trajectory and the urban charac=
ter of most residential neighbourhoods.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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<p>NGOs are advised to plan for additional travel duration for movements wi=
thin population centres, and to seek information about possible road closur=
es prior to departure.<br /><br />NGO staff members are further advised to =
avoid public large gatherings and high-profile locations on 31 August, as f=
ar as possible.<br /><br />NGOs should ensure that all staff members carry =
all necessary personal identification documents with them at all times and =
that relevant registration forms and authorisation letters are available in=
 all NGO vehicles, including for short trips within city limits. During con=
trols at checkpoints, documents should only be presented if IEA personnel s=
pecifically requests them.<br /><br />In the event of celebratory gunfire o=
ccurring close to their locations, NGO staff members are advised to immedia=
tely move or stay indoors and keep away from windows. NGO staff are also st=
rongly encouraged to avoid participating in celebratory gunfire.<br /><br /=
>NGOs are advised to review their internal communications with regards to a=
vailable emergency redundancies and standard operating procedures in case o=
f widespread telecommunications outages.<br /><br />INSO Central will issue=
 separate alerts in the event of security-related incidents taking place.</=
p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/30082022/#001								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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