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Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2022 11:59:02 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <VXYe1jz6Q02aj-rR4rNtXQ@geopod-ismtpd-4-0>
Subject: CORRECTION: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL:
 Observance Of Independence Day
To: "Dr. Sayed Musa Musawy" <musawy@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, Citywide</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Observance Of Independence Day								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								19/08/2022 08:00								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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<p>Afghanistan will celebrate its annual Independence Day holiday on 18 Aug=
ust. The day celebrates the signing of the Anglo-Afghan Treaty in Rawalpind=
i in 1919, through which the United Kingdom recognised Afghanistan as a sov=
ereign and independent state.<br /><br />Official celebrations are expected=
 to be held at the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/GXSqyija7a7wiJ9h8">Presid=
ential Palace</a> in PD 2, however, the exact timings could not be confirme=
d at the time of writing. Other venues that may see IEA-organised events to=
 commemorate Independence Day include <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/3xtRGQ=
FseBULC1MS7">Eid Gah Mosque</a>, the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/2pQQJcS=
yy85aAYMv7">RTA Headquarters</a>, and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/WJCqMe=
2KzffKNobU8">Darulaman Palace</a>. Smaller, ad hoc gatherings of rank-and-f=
ile IEA members may also be observed at smaller mosques or public gathering=
 spaces, including <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/8fqX2E1UdAk64PbD8">Massou=
d Square</a>, and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/Tr5mtHTvaHhQBjLA9">Abdul H=
aq Square</a>.<br /><br />As of this afternoon, the posture of IEA security=
 forces has remained largely unchanged in Kabul City, including in PD 2 and=
 the surrounding central districts.<br /><br />In addition to a complex att=
ack on the British Council in 2011, during Independence Day celebrations on=
 18 August 2020, IS-KP members fired seven rounds of IDF towards the Presid=
ential Palace which impacted on surrounding residential areas in PD 2, kill=
ing two individuals and wounding 14 others.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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<p>Independence Day celebrations are likely to take a similar form as the r=
ecent commemoration of the one-year anniversary of the IEA takeover on 15 A=
ugust. As such, a mixture of high-level closed-off events led by senior IEA=
 officials and spontaneous gatherings and smaller parades of IEA members al=
ong main roads should be anticipated. Combined with likely unannounced rout=
e closures outside high-profile venues such as the Presidential Palace and =
the RTA Headquarters, the city centre in particular is expected to see heig=
htened traffic congestion.<br /><br />Starting from the evening hours of 18=
 <span style=3D"background-color: #f1c40f;">August</span>, IEA forces may i=
ncrease their physical footprint in key locations through additional checkp=
oints and patrols, in order to improve their monitoring capabilities and hi=
nder potential OAG movements. While authorities have not shared any specifi=
cs regarding this anticipated heightened posture, areas surrounding venues =
likely to see high-level IEA assemblies, such as the Presidential Palace, a=
re expected to see an increase in the number of stationed IEA members. <br =
/><br />No indication that a recurrence of the shutdown of telecommunicatio=
ns networks witnessed during Ashura Day on 08 August has been received thus=
 far. However, authorities have demonstrated the willingness to implement s=
uch blackouts withour prior notice, which would greatly hinder the ability =
of NGOs to communicate with staff members.<br /><br />Furthermore, controls=
 at checkpoints may intensify during Independence Day, including at the fou=
r key gates into the city, including screening areas along the Kabul-Ghazni=
 Highway, Kabul-Parwan Highway, Kabul-Gardez Highway, and Kabul-Jalalabad H=
ighway. IEA members may stop trucks and large buses from entering the city,=
 with smaller vehicles allowed to enter the city after submitting to checkp=
oint screenings.<br /><br />The risk of OAG attacks against IEA targets in =
particular is assessed to be elevated during Independence Day, as groups ma=
y seek to capitalise on the increased media attention and number of gatheri=
ngs of IEA officials to conduct attacks. While this risk is assessed to be =
somewhat lower than during the previous 15 August celebrations, the same po=
tential risks apply (see AFGHANISTAN/COUNTRYWIDE/R/12082022/#001). IS-KP af=
filiates have repeatedly demonstrated their capability and intent to conduc=
t IDF attacks against hardened high-profile venues, while also deploying BB=
IEDs to target large public gatherings.<br /><br />Throughout the night lea=
ding up to Independence Day and the date itself, periodic celebratory SAF m=
ay occur inside the city, primarily from IEA members. Celebratory SAF remai=
ns a risk to NGO staff members and other civilians, given its often unclear=
 trajectory and the urban character of most residential neighbourhoods. Whi=
le no large-scale related incidents were witnessed in central areas of Kabu=
l City on 15 August, the possibility of individual IEA members engaging in =
celebratory gunfire remains a concern.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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<p>NGOs are advised to plan for additional travel duration for movements wi=
thin Kabul City, and to seek information about possible road closures prior=
 to departure.<br /><br />NGO staff members are further advised to avoid pu=
blic large gatherings and high-profile locations on 19 August, as far as po=
ssible.<br /><br />NGOs should ensure that all staff members carry all nece=
ssary personal identification documents with them at all times and that rel=
evant registration forms and authorisation letters are available in all NGO=
 vehicles, including for short trips within city limits. During controls at=
 checkpoints, documents should only be presented if IEA personnel specifica=
lly requests them.<br /><br />In the event of celebratory gunfire occurring=
 close to their locations, NGO staff members are advised to immediately mov=
e or stay indoors and keep away from windows. NGO staff are also strongly e=
ncouraged to avoid participating in celebratory gunfire.<br /><br />NGOs ar=
e advised to review their internal communications with regards to available=
 emergency redundancies and standard operating procedures in case of widesp=
read telecommunications outages.<br /><br />INSO Central will issue separat=
e alerts in the event of security-related incidents taking place.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/18082022/#001-C								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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