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Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2022 14:50:53 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= BALKH: Tenth of Muharram
 (Ashura) Observance
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Balkh Province, Ma=
zar-e Sharif City, Multiple Areas</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Tenth of Muharram (Ashura) Observance 								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								07/08/2022 19:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The tenth day of Muharram, Ashu=
ra, will be observed across the country, including in Mazar-e Sharif City o=
n Monday, 08 August. IEA members will establish temporary checkpoints and c=
onduct additional vehicle checks. Several gatherings will converge, primari=
ly at a local Shia mosque, Takia Khana , on the morning of 08 August. Addit=
ionally, all roads surrounding the Blue Mosque Square are certain to witnes=
s traffic congestion throughout the day.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is likely that the processions to th=
e Hazarat Ali Shrine and several other mosques in and around Mazar-e Sharif=
 City will pass through the following locations: PD 2 in <a href=3D"https:/=
/goo.gl/maps/Vz1TvpVkCryrgqRV6">Darwazi Balkh</a> and <a href=3D"https://go=
o.gl/maps/1QRQMDgmM9rYneUa8">Sedokan</a> areas, PD 5 in <a href=3D"https://=
goo.gl/maps/tFE9P1ra8kXw12nY6">Yolmarab</a> and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/m=
aps/jh3thzms5jnCnVd99">Faqirabad</a> areas, PD 6 in <a href=3D"https://goo.=
gl/maps/nPVdwP4ufefD9KHt7">Chawk Kabul Flez</a> area, PD 7 in <a href=3D"ht=
tps://goo.gl/maps/wAJf3YfUbh3qzAa27">Karte Sol</a> area, PD 8 in <a href=3D=
"https://goo.gl/maps/YWewmSBX5bqq1SEu6">Dasht-e Shoor</a> area, PD 9 in <a =
href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/wUZJHsMh586es2ab9">Karte Zerahat</a> and <a hre=
f=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/p5FsrSLeRFzRJLvm9">Abdul Ali Mazari Shrine</a> are=
as, PD 10 in <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/WAWhYGJqT9e4a4WDA">Karte Sajadi=
a</a> and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/4oTR6MJC6pMkWvW97">Ali Chopan</a> =
areas, and in PD 11 in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/Ctv9gG8zmELNuRgY9=
">Blue Mosque</a> area.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IEA forces informed the residents that =
they will not be allowed to march out of their mosques. Civilians attending=
 the ceremonies are to continue the celebration inside mosques to avoid ris=
k posed by potential attacks. However, reportedly, some of the Shia communi=
ty members are likely to disregard the instruction and march from one mosqu=
e to another, during the tenth day of Muharram.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Meanwhile, the IEA security forces alre=
ady increased their posture through VCPs in and around the city since 01 Au=
gust, due to Muharram. IEA members also deployed additional forces&nbsp; in=
 the vicinity of the majority of the Shia mosques to ensure the safety of r=
esidents participating to the ceremonies.</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Celebrations occasioned by reli=
gious holydays such as Ashura involve the presence of a high number of civi=
lians most often resulting in closure of roads or significant increases in =
the travel time of motorists. The presence of additional security forces is=
 likely to further limit the freedom of movement for NGOs. A high IEA secur=
ity footprint in Mazar-e Sharif City is very likely to impact NGO road move=
ments together with an increased scrutiny by the IEA members performing the=
 controls in checkpoints. This may result in additional hostility towards c=
ivilians and NGO staff members alike. Avoiding areas known to host Ashura c=
eremonies, and road travel in vicinity of Shia venues, is likely to allow N=
GO staff members to continue operating without significantly impacting move=
ments.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Given the relatively high number of rel=
igious sites where Ashura ceremonies will take place and that often no coor=
dination among the religious leaders throughout the city, unplanned road cl=
osures might take place. This only adds to the potential challenges posed b=
y a heightened IEA posture.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Religious celebrations such as Ashura c=
onstitute opportunities for OAGs to launch attacks against both the securit=
y forces as well as against exponents of the Shia minority. Groups affiliat=
ed to the IS-KP would most likely have the intent to attack ceremonies such=
 as the ones occasioned by Ashura, which would likely result in a high numb=
er of casualties and would ensure a wide media coverage and a high politica=
l impact. While a heightened IEA presence throughout the city &nbsp;increas=
es the number of potential targets, making it more attractive for OAG membe=
rs and sympathisers, a large number of security forces throughout the city =
is likely to represent a significant deterrent, hindering the assailants&rs=
quo; access to soft targets. Therefore, risk posed by IS-KP affiliates are =
assessed to be higher around Ashura holyday.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to restrict no=
n-essential movement between approximately 1600 hrs on 08 August and 2100 h=
rs on 09 August. If movement is necessary, it is recommended to plan for ad=
ditional travel duration, and to seek information about possible road closu=
res prior to departure.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff members are advised to avoid =
large gatherings, and to choose, to the extent possible, lower-profile area=
s to observe Ashura.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">If moving in crowded areas is necessary=
, NGO staff should remain aware of the risk of crime and continue to mainta=
in a low profile by avoiding the display of cash and valuable items.&nbsp;<=
/div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdouni</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafet=
y.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/07082022/#001 								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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