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Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2022 08:55:54 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <3riy5VYPRUuzROuO9K5Rhw@geopod-ismtpd-6-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= COUNTRYWIDE: Impact of US
 Drone Strike Against Al Qaeda Leader On IEA-NGO Relations And Operations
To: Rohullah Azimi <rohullah.azimi@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, PD 10, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/gZXzJBu2AaLr76Nt9">Sherpoor=
</a> Area</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								US Drone Strike Against Al Qaeda Leader								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								31/07/2022 06:15								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 31 July, US forces conducted a drone s=
trike with two projectiles against a private residence in the Sherpoor area=
 of PD 10. The residence reportedly housed a group of Al Qaeda affiliates, =
including its leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri, who, according to the US, was kille=
d in the attack. A number of other individuals are believed to have been ki=
lled in the operation, although their affiliation and deaths remain unconfi=
rmed.<br /><br />In response to the announcement of the operation, IEA offi=
cials issued a statement on 02 August, condemning the drone strike as a vio=
lation of international law as well as the Doha Agreement between the IEA a=
nd the US and warning the US against repeating similar acts in the future.<=
/p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">On the strategic-political level, the str=
ike will most likely lead to a notable deterioration of relations between t=
he US and the IEA, with statements from both sides accusing the other of ha=
ving violated previous security assurances. While the long-term implication=
s of this change in mutual diplomatic posture remains to be seen, it will m=
ost likely lead to a further reduction in bilateral engagements and loss of=
 trust.<br /><br />This elevated distrust is also expected to impact relati=
ons between senior IEA officials and NGOs, which are often perceived as bei=
ng directly connected to the foreign policy of their donors&rsquo; respecti=
ve countries, or the organisations&rsquo; own country of origin. Anecdotal =
reporting from previous interactions with high-level IEA officials have in =
the past highlighted underlying suspicions towards NGOs over their assumed =
ties to foreign governments and IMF.<br /><br />On the operational-tactical=
 level, these increased suspicions towards NGOs may also translate into fur=
ther challenges to general movements and operations in the short term, as t=
he behaviour of individual IEA rank-and-file members in response to the US =
drone strikes will most likely be erratic and largely unpredictable. As suc=
h, NGO staff may witness heightened hostility during interactions at IEA ch=
eckpoints, ranging from new demands for additional documentation potentiall=
y harassment and even short-term detention on unclear grounds. This can hei=
ghten the overall risk associated with road movements for NGO staff members=
, while previous deconfliction and de-escalation channels established after=
 the IEA takeover may prove to be ineffective during this period of heighte=
ned tensions.<br /><br />Mid-ranking district-level or provincial authoriti=
es may opt to heighten the posture of their forces in population centres th=
rough additional checkpoints or patrols in order to demonstrate their capac=
ities and interdict movements of suspected foreign intelligence operatives.=
 Similar to what was witnessed in multiple provinces in late February and e=
arly March 2022, authorities may also launch large-scale search operations =
in key population centres with aims to detain individuals deemed suspicious=
. Based on the abovementioned elevated level of suspicion towards NGOs and =
their staff members in the aftermath of the 31 July strike, such search ope=
rations are likely to directly affect NGO compounds as well as private resi=
dences of NGO staff members. Based on past reported experiences of NGOs, IE=
A behaviour during these searches can differ significantly and may be more =
confrontational in the current climate.<br /><br />While as of the time of =
writing, no concerted search operations or a significantly heightened postu=
re of security forces have been reported in Kabul or any of the major regio=
nal capitals, operations may currently be in the planning and mobilisation =
stage. As such, related shifts in IEA operations or general posture may occ=
ur without prior notice over the coming 72 hours.<br /><br />Although IEA d=
istrust is generally directed towards NGOs on an organisational level, thes=
e heightened risks are assessed to be of particular concern for foreign NGO=
 staff members, as well as other foreign nationals living in the country. D=
ue to their foreign status and the limited information authorities have reg=
arding their personal background, expatriates have already faced heightened=
 scrutiny of their movements and activities in the past. Scrutiny of foreig=
n NGO staff is expected to intensify further as a result of the drone strik=
e, including during controls at checkpoints and border entry points, such a=
s KIA. This additional scrutiny and levels of hostility can be expected to =
be particularly exacerbated for US nationals.<br /><br />The risk of retali=
atory attacks from Al Qaeda affiliates must also be considered. Although th=
e 31 July drone strike confirms their presence in Kabul City, the current i=
ntentions and capabilities of Al Qaeda affiliates in the capital and other =
parts of the country are unknown, in particular their ability to execute at=
tacks. However, as with behaviour of IEA members at checkpoint, individual =
Al Qaeda supporters without direct operational ties to the main group seeki=
ng to conduct attacks in response to the killing of Ayman Al-Zawahiri remai=
ns a possibility. Given the limited information on their structure or capac=
ity, narrowing down potential targets for such retaliatory acts is highly c=
hallenging, but may include buildings and organisations publicly associated=
 with US interests, such as the former US Embassy building in Kabul City.</=
p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">As the immediate responses from IEA force=
s and OAG actors still remain largely unclear, NGOs are advised to avoid no=
n-essential road movements in the interim.<br /><br />When conducting essen=
tial road movements, NGOs should anticipate heightened scrutiny at checkpoi=
nts and ensure all passengers carry all necessary identification documents =
as well as any authorisation and registration documents issued by the autho=
rities.<br /><br />When being stopped by IEA personnel at checkpoints, fore=
ign nationals should avoid all interactions with IEA forces unless directly=
 approached and only provide identifying documents if asked to do so. In or=
der to facilitate communication, at least one individual with sufficient Pa=
shto, Dari, and English skills should travel in every NGO vehicle, includin=
g for short distances.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/02082022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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