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Date: Sun, 24 Jul 2022 07:33:05 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <Wjn0ln-ORVKEYjCDkR33RA@geopod-ismtpd-canary-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= BAGHLAN: Suspected Use of
 UAVs for Airstrikes in Baghlan Province Does Not Pose A Risk to NGOs
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Baghlan Province, =
Deh Salah, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/vciNM5Mz7Cd9TuAs9">Awdac Mountain=
</a> Area&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Suspected Use of UAVs for Airstrikes in Baghlan Province Does Not P=
ose A Risk to NGOs								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								15/07/2022 03:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 15 July, at approximately 0300=
 hrs, an explosion of unconfirmed nature occurred in the Sochi Village in t=
he Awdac Mountain area, between Deh Salah and Khost districts, which is rep=
ortedly an NRF stronghold. The explosion did not result in any casualties. =
Previously, on 14 July during evening hours, two unidentified UAVs were see=
n in the aforementioned area, where at the time approximately 180 members o=
f the NRF had gathered.</p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The explosion recorded on 15 Ju=
ly was likely an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) airstrike. On 14 July, at le=
ast five independent sources saw two UAVs in the Awbak Mountain area. Furth=
ermore, local reporting confirmed sighting the two aircrafts in the same ar=
ea. The local residents might not be familiar with the shape or sound of a =
UAV, given the absence of such means from the security forces' arsenal in B=
aghlan Province following 15 August 2021. However, interlocutors that have =
a military background were exposed to such aircrafts and could positively i=
dentify them with more accuracy. The former GOA military forces received ei=
ght drone systems, each system using six ScanEagle unmanned aircrafts meant=
 to increase their intelligence collection and reconnaissance ability. The =
IMF trained the former GOA security forces to use these unmanned surveillan=
ce aircrafts starting in 2018. reover, INSO reported unmanned aircrafts sig=
htings in the Western Region (see AFGHANISTAN/WEST/R/20032022/#001) and Sou=
thern Region (see AFGHANISTAN/SOUTH/R/06022022/#001), indicating the presen=
ce of UAVs deployed by neighbouring states remains highly likely. However, =
INSO did not log any attacks against OAGs carried out by foreign drones aft=
er the IEA takeover with the exception of targeted airstrikes against IS-KP=
 and TTP in the Eastern Region.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The 15 July attack was most likely targ=
eting members of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. Since the co=
ming of spring, the NRF led 13 attacks against IEA security forces in the n=
eighbouring areas of Awbak Mountain. Furthermore, on 14 July, a local mid-l=
evel commander and approximately 180 NRF members gathered in the Awbak Moun=
tain area, known to be under NRF control. The 15 July airstrike impacted th=
e area where the NRF gathering took place, indicating a direct attempt to m=
aximise the casualties among the OAG members.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is unlikely that IEA forces authored=
 the airstrikes on 15 July. Since the uptick in NRF attacks in May, the IEA=
 security forces have used various weapon systems and tactics to target the=
 NRF. However, their capacity to deploy air assets remained minimal. IEA se=
curity forces deployed helicopters almost exclusively for troops&rsquo; tra=
nsport and surveillance in NRF-held areas of Khost, Deh Salah, Pul-e Hesar,=
 and Bano districts; however, no drones were observed. Unconfirmed reports =
suggest that surveillance UAVs left behind by the IMF or former ANSF after =
the collapse of the former government are present in the country. However, =
the number of operational UAVs remains unknown, and the system in question =
is unarmed and does, as such, not have the capability to conduct airstrikes=
.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">While the IEA did not have the necessar=
y training to operate such UAVs prior to August 2021, unconfirmed reports s=
uggest that they had an unknown number of drone operators trained in Pakist=
an since. However, INSO could not verify the information independently, and=
 such a development is assessed as unlikely given IEA&rsquo;s interest to d=
ate in using existing ground capabilities rather than developing new ones. =
Even if the IEA would have secured some UAV systems, given the low number o=
f former GOA military personnel retained (within the IEA security forces st=
ructures) and the even more limited number of them trained as UAV operators=
, the deployment of UAV systems for offensive operations against OAG locati=
ons in Baghlan Province remains unlikely.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">While IEA&rsquo;s use of UAVs was not c=
onfirmed, as of the time of writing, neighbouring countries such as Iran an=
d Pakistan possess armed UAVs with operational range to conduct strikes ins=
ide Afghanistan. Other external actors, such as the US, are dependent on th=
e availability of airfields in the vicinity of the operating area, easily a=
ttainable through bilateral deals with neighbouring states. However, there =
were no obvious motivations for either of these actors to target OAG member=
s without a previous agreement with the IEA authorities, which, as of the t=
ime of writing, could not be confirmed or ruled out.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The risk of airstrikes in the coming mo=
nths in Baghlan Province remains extremely low. The incident reported on 15=
 July is the second airstrike in Baghlan Province since the IEA takeover, i=
ndicating a low keenness of the IEA to employ aircrafts for offensive opera=
tions against OAGs. The NRF can easily capitalise on their tactical advanta=
ge offered by the geography they control and attempt to down IEA helicopter=
s. Such incidents have high media value and would discredit the IEA securit=
y apparatus and potentially embolden NRF members&rsquo; attacks. Furthermor=
e, IEA forces relied on a limited number of military aircrafts that could b=
e used for military operations and retain an even lower number of pilots ab=
le to operate them, factors that reduce the willingness of the IEA command =
to use them in firefights. From a location standpoint, the areas the NRF me=
mbers control are remote and largely uninhabited , and potential airstrikes=
 against OAG members pose a very low risk to civilians.&nbsp;</div>								=
</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">For NGOs, an awareness of the m=
ost up-to-date tactics and conflict dynamics on the ground is vital in cons=
tructing well-informed risk mitigation measures and effective contingency p=
lans.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs need to keep up with IEA security =
forces&rsquo; adoption of completely new and novel tactics regardless of th=
eir fairly uncommon occurrence. Although tactics may change, the targets of=
 these tactics remain largely the same: OAGs' outposts and shelters, OAGs m=
embers, and other buildings and areas with OAG affiliation.<br /><br /></di=
v>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Furthermore, NGOs are advised to ensure=
 that all relevant staff receive comprehensive first-aid training, to be au=
dited and updated on a regular basis. The threat posed to NGOs by the above=
 tactics lies predominantly in the potential for collateral damage from exp=
losions.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdouni</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafet=
y.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/24072022/#002								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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