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Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2022 14:11:32 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <iYfHySDOQyKGQDA7ajhBeQ@geopod-ismtpd-6-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - SAMANGAN: IS-KP-Authored Attacks Against Key
 Infrastructure Likely to Continue
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Samangan Province, Firoz Nakhchir District, <a href=3D=
"https://goo.gl/maps/UHiBaAgvaMieNxgX7">Poza</a> Area								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								OAG Attack Against Infrastructure								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								11/07/2022 19:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Unknown individuals destroyed t=
wo electricity pylons in Poza area of Firoz Nakhchir District on 11 July at=
 1900 hrs. Reports suggested that they used IEDs. No OAG claimed responsibi=
lity for the attack.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Previously, on 23 May at 0200 hrs, IS-K=
P affiliates destroyed three pylons approximately 10 km northeast of those =
targeted on 11 July, in the Kaftar Khan area of Khulm District. At 2200 hrs=
 on the same day, another pylon was destroyed in an IED explosion in the Ra=
botak area of Aybak District. IS-KP claimed responsibility for both inciden=
ts.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In the days prior to Eid al-Adha, IS-KP=
 issued a booklet titled &ldquo;Eid message&rdquo; in which the group repor=
tedly stated its intent to conduct attacks against infrastructure across Af=
ghanistan and praised the rocket attacks against Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.=
 Some media sources alleged that IS-KP specifically identified the railway =
between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan as a potential target, which, however, c=
ould not be independently verified.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Individuals affiliated with IS-=
KP likely destroyed the pylons on 11 July, considering the similarity of th=
e incident to the group&rsquo;s countrywide activity as well as their recen=
tly reiterated intent to target infrastructure. Since the IEA takeover, INS=
O recorded seven incidents in which electricity pylons have been targeted i=
n the Central, Northern, and Northeastern regions, five of which were claim=
ed by IS-KP while the other two remained unclaimed. Moreover, the group als=
o represented the only OAG that marked consistent activity across the North=
ern Region in 2022, including attacks against electricity infrastructure on=
 23 May close to the pylons destroyed recently. These factors strongly sugg=
est that IS-KP also authored the incident on 11 July in Firoz Nakhchir, eve=
n if the group will not claim the responsibility for the sabotage in the up=
coming days.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">This was the second attack in the North=
ern Region in July that was likely perpetrated by IS-KP-affiliated individu=
als and remained unclaimed, though evidence from other regions suggests tha=
t the absence of a claim does not preclude IS-KP&rsquo;s authorship. Apart =
from the rocket attack on Uzbekistan&rsquo;s Termez on 05 July, for which a=
lso no claim of responsibility was issued as noted in the report AFGHANISTA=
N/NORTH/R/07072022/#001, INSO logged at least three other high-profile atta=
cks in 2022 in Central and Northeastern regions that bore all the hallmarks=
 of IS-KP activity but remained unclaimed. These include a BBIED detonation=
 at a school attended by Hazara children in Kabul City&rsquo;s PD 18 on 18 =
April, an RCIED explosion at a Sufi khanaqa in Emam Saheb (Kunduz Province)=
 on 22 April, and the case of an unidentified man who detonated a BBIED at =
a Sufi khanaqa in Kabul City&rsquo;s PD 6 during a prayer ceremony on 29 Ap=
ril. Nonetheless, in the Northern Region, this represents a novel developme=
nt, the reasons for which remained largely unknown at the time of writing.<=
br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is highly likely that IS-KP will con=
duct similar attacks against key infrastructure in the upcoming months in B=
alkh and Samangan provinces, particularly electricity pylons and potentiall=
y also the railway connecting Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. IS-KP&rsquo;s Eid=
 message specifically highlighted infrastructure as one of the priority tar=
gets, and considering that these are low-risk-high-visibility efforts which=
 are typical of the group's activity in the Northern Region, further sabota=
ge of this kind should be expected. Several media accounts also reported th=
at IS-KP has designated the railway connecting Uzbekistan with Hairatan and=
 Mazar-e Sharif as a target. Even though this could not be independently ve=
rified, attacking the unprotected segment of the railway represents an acce=
ssible and symbolically important opportunity for the group, as such activi=
ty would likely further undermine the IEA&rsquo;s and Uzbekistan&rsquo;s pr=
ospects of joint railway construction, which appears to be in line with IS-=
KP's strategic objectives.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Attacks against infrastructure could be=
 seen as carrying the risk of disrupting NGOs&rsquo; power supply as well a=
s aid delivery, though these risks remained limited at the time of writing.=
 Power outages in Aybak City were minimal on 11 July even though the city i=
s mainly supplied from the disrupted line, because the provider immediately=
 activated the backup source coming from the Northeastern Region. The Afgha=
n Breshna company also allegedly started repairing the damaged pylons, and =
the supply along this power line is likely to resume in the upcoming weeks.=
 The railway has thus far been used only minimally by NGOs or IOs, who repo=
rtedly prefer trucks for the shipping of their cargo across the Uzbekistan-=
Afghanistan border. However, local businessmen use the railroad frequently,=
 and there will thus be a low but persistent risk of temporary disruptions =
of any locally procured aid supplies in case IS-KP affiliates damage the ra=
ilway and suppliers lack the flexibility to find alternative transport solu=
tions.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to inform thei=
r staff of the latest developments, particularly those residing or operatin=
g in the proximity of electricity pylons and other key infrastructure.<br /=
><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is recommended that NGOs assess the =
flexibility of their suppliers and the degree to which the supply is depend=
ent on the functionality of the railway.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/14072022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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