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Date: Sat, 09 Jul 2022 14:16:22 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <K11N5DfHQkCj0dOVnh4gAg@geopod-ismtpd-canary-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= BAMYAN: IEA Forces Disable
 Two IEDs
To: Mohammad Arif Tabesh <dr.tabesh@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Bamyan Province, B=
amyan City, PD 1, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/wpf3KfCj7SazDtq66">Tulwara=
 Bridge</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								IEA Forces Disable IEDs								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								07/07/2022 19:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p>On 07 July at approximately 1900 hrs, IEA forces patrolling in the title=
 area discovered and disabled two IEDs emplaced on a bridge. After disablin=
g the devices, additional IEA forces deployed to the area and conducted a s=
earch operation at nearby private residences. The discovery was made shortl=
y before a convoy carrying the Governor of Bamyan Province was scheduled to=
 cross the bridge.<br /><br />The following day, IEA forces arrested six ci=
vilian employees at the Bamyan Police Headquarters accused of being linked =
to the incident.<br /><br />As of the time of writing, no group or individu=
al has claimed responsibility for the emplacement of the IEDs.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The short time span between the discovery=
 of the IEDs and the anticipated travel of the PG strongly indicates that t=
he devices specifically targeted the high-profile convoy. This further sugg=
ests that the assailants possessed prior knowledge of the travel plans of t=
he senior official, enabling them to predict his movements at a specific ti=
me and choose the most opportune spot for the attack.<br /><br />Bridges of=
fer several distinct tactical advantages and disadvantages for such attacks=
. Generally, bridges and other traffic bottlenecks represent highly favoura=
ble locations for IED emplacements as well as other types of ambushes again=
st moving targets. In contrast to other road sections, bridges greatly limi=
t the mobility of the targeted vehicles or individuals once they have enter=
ed the bridge. In the case of IED attacks, the comparably confined space al=
so ensures that the intended target will pass close to the emplaced device =
and cannot circumvent it, thereby increasing the impact on the target.<br /=
><br />At the same time, due to their strategic importance and limited numb=
er in most provinces, bridges are more closely guarded and will have a high=
er concentration of security forces than open road sections. This, in turn,=
 significantly exacerbates unseen access for assailants seeking to emplace =
explosives or position themselves for an SAF attack. Furthermore, based on =
the location of the devices and the specific high-value target of the attem=
pted attack, it is assessed as most likely that the emplaced IEDs were remo=
te-controlled to maximise their accuracy and impact on the PG convoy. In th=
is case, at least one of the involved assailants would have been located in=
 line of sight of the bridge in order to detonate the devices once the conv=
oy had reached them. This generally increases the likelihood of being inter=
cepted by security forces either before or immediately after the attack.<br=
 /><br />Based on the intended method of attack, active OAGs such as IS-KP =
and NRF must be considered as potential authors due to their proven capabil=
ity and intent to deploy IEDs against IEA forces. Similar OAG-authored IED =
attacks against IEA convoys have been recorded in other provinces of Centra=
l Region, such as Parwan, Kabul, and Panjshir since the IEA takeover in Aug=
ust 2021. However, no IED-related incidents or any other OAG-authored incid=
ents have been recorded in Bamyan Province over this time period. Consideri=
ng the necessary resources and local knowledge required to conduct such an =
attack, the involvement of one of the OAGs operating in other provinces is =
therefore currently assessed as unlikely.<br /><br />The incident may be re=
lated to disputes between different factions of IEA members, who are highly=
 likely to similarly possess the knowledge and access to explosive material=
s necessary to plan and carry out such a targeted attack. There have been l=
ongstanding tensions within the Bamyan security apparatus, with IEA forces =
arresting (seven) and clashing with (nine) other IEA members on 16 occasion=
s since the first such incident recorded on 04 November 2021. Anecdotal rep=
orts have also suggested further internal disagreements over the dismissal =
of Mawlawi Mahdi Mujahid from his senior position with the Bamyan IEA in Ja=
nuary 2022, exacerbated by the later armed confrontation between his forces=
 and IEA members in Balkhab District of neighbouring Sar-e Pul Province. Wh=
ile the exact fault lines between IEA factions are difficult to accurately =
assess, these tensions combined with the proven IED capabilities of a secti=
on of IEA members strengthen the assessment that the attempted attack on 07=
 July may have been related to an intra-IEA dispute.<br /><br />The subsequ=
ent arrests of six civilian administrators at the provincial police headqua=
rters in connection with the incident also strongly suggests that the attac=
k was at least facilitated from within the security apparatus. Given the de=
tailed knowledge of the movements of the PG the assailants exhibited, the d=
irect involvement of employees of the police headquarters is conceivable. S=
hould this involvement be confirmed, intra-IEA tensions are likely to furth=
er deteriorate, which could lead to further sporadic shootings between rank=
-and-file members and other security-related incidents.<br /><br />The use =
of IEDs always poses a distinct risk of collateral exposure to NGO personne=
l, vehicles, and other civilians, particularly within an urban context. The=
 road where security personnel discovered the IEDs connects the Bazaar area=
 of the Bamyan City centre with the main highway towards Yakawlang and Shib=
ar districts, while the bridge itself is located directly adjacent to a mos=
que. Both of these factors would have increased the likelihood of NGO perso=
nnel passing by when the devices are detonated, while an accidental or prem=
ature detonation of the devices must also always be considered.<br /><br />=
IEA forces may heighten their posture in response to the discovery of the I=
EDs in Bamyan City in the short term, increasing the number of temporary ch=
eckpoints and tightening controls of motorists. Targeted search operations =
against further potential collaborators in the planned attack also remain c=
onceivable. This heightened IEA security posture and possible search operat=
ions could both impact on NGO staff members&rsquo; freedom of movement and =
operations within Bamyan City.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p>NGOs should advise staff members living or working in PD 1 of Bamyan Cit=
y to anticipate an increased number of temporary checkpoints and intensifie=
d controls at checkpoints over the next 48 hours.<br /><br />NGO personnel =
should always seek to maintain a safe distance of at least six vehicle leng=
ths from security forces vehicles and VIP transports while in transit. Wher=
e possible, NGO personnel should also seek to limit the time spent at IEA c=
heckpoints and other installations.<br /><br />NGOs are strongly advised to=
 avoid non-essential road movements after dusk and before dawn, as well as =
during other periods of reduced visibility (e.g. heavy rainfall), and use m=
ain roads with higher traffic volumes over secondary roads as far as possib=
le.<br /><br />NGOs are further advised to brief staff members on response =
procedures when encountering a suspected IED, stressing the need to avoid a=
ll physical contact with the devices, calmly vacate the area, alert other p=
resent individuals of the present danger, and inform senior NGO members as =
well as the authorities.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/09072022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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