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Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2022 17:03:22 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <0QbBW46qT-6pUu3YZOFOkg@geopod-ismtpd-6-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - BALKH: Rocket Attack Against Uzbekistan Unlikely
 to Affect Movement Across the Border
To: "Dr. Faiq Sediqi" <faiq.sediqi@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Balkh Province, Hairatan City, <a href=3D"https://goo.=
gl/maps/BJnBzzVdGb8pPQu18">Sar-e Chah</a> Area								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								OAG rocket attack								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								05/07/2022 16:30								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Unknown individuals launched at=
 least five BM-1 rockets from Sar-e Chah area in Hairatan City to Uzbekista=
n&rsquo;s Termez on 05 July at approximately 1630 hrs. The rockets landed i=
n a residential Akhudbabaev area and caused damage to several houses as wel=
l as to a football stadium, though no casualties have been reported. The pe=
rpetrators launched the rockets remotely from a seemingly improvised launch=
er mounted on a ranger-type civilian vehicle. The individuals remained at l=
arge at the time of writing.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) o=
f Uzbekistan confirmed the attack at approximately 2000 hrs on the same day=
. IEA authorities first seemed to deny the incident, but then confirmed it =
at 2010 hrs on 06 July.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">This is the second rocket attac=
k against Uzbekistan from Hairatan City in 2022, but despite a reported fru=
stration of the Uzbek authorities, the incident is not expected to lead to =
a severe deterioration of the relationship between the IEA and Uzbek border=
 forces and it is unlikely to negatively affect the cross-border movement i=
n the upcoming weeks.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Even though no OAG claimed responsibili=
ty for the attack at the time of writing, the similarity of the modus opera=
ndi to the previous attack against Termez, the existing evidence on OAG pre=
sence in Balkh Province, and the motive all strongly suggest that the incid=
ent was perpetrated by IS-KP. On 18 April, the group remotely launched six =
rockets of the same type from a private residence in Hairatan&rsquo;s Sar-e=
 Chah area. Its affiliates claimed the attack several hours later, stating =
their intent to target countries that they consider supportive of the IEA. =
No other OAG currently operating in Afghanistan made a conflicting claim th=
en, and none is thought to have the resolve to conduct attacks against Uzbe=
kistan. Considering also that IS-KP is the only OAG that has logged multipl=
e attacks in the Northern Region in 2022, it is very likely that IS-KP affi=
liates also launched the rockets on 05 July, even if the group will not cla=
im responsibility for the incident in near future.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Uzbekistan&rsquo;s border forces immedi=
ately increased their posture following the incident and allegedly informal=
ly showed signs of frustration at the difficulty to ensure the safety of re=
sidents in Termez, but the civilian movement across the border remained una=
ffected. Minutes after the incident, overflights of Uzbekistan&rsquo;s airc=
raft and helicopters in Afghanistan&rsquo;s territory have been reported, s=
upposedly surveilling the area from which the individuals launched the rock=
ets. At approximately at 1820 hrs, several military vehicles carrying the r=
epresentatives of Uzbek border forces crossed into Afghanistan and met with=
 the IEA. On the morning of 06 July, Uzbekistan&rsquo;s helicopters again p=
atrolled the border, but since then the posture on Uzbekistan&rsquo;s side =
returned to the levels observed prior to the attack. Despite this military =
activity, the crossing reportedly remained open to the transport of busines=
s and humanitarian goods without any interruption, suggesting that such inc=
idents do not thus far constitute a sufficient reason for Uzbekistan to fur=
ther restrict the movement across the border.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Similar to the observations made in the=
 report AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/27062022/#001, the relationship between the IEA=
 and Uzbek border forces again proved resilient and with functional communi=
cation channels, though it is likely that the Uzbek authorities will call o=
n the IEA with increasing impatience to implement stricter security measure=
s within Hairatan City, as hinted at in the statement of Uzbekistan&rsquo;s=
 MFA. Unlike on 18 April when no increased posture of the IEA was observed =
in Hairatan after the rockets had been launched, reports indicate that sinc=
e 05 July the IEA significantly increased the number of VCPs in Hairatan Ci=
ty, whose personnel allegedly searched both incoming and outgoing vehicles =
thoroughly. In the context of Uzbekistan&rsquo;s disconcertment, it is conc=
eivable that such measures will remain in place in the city over the next s=
everal weeks, and one-off targeted search operations may occur if the IEA i=
s tipped about suspected individuals.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">If truly perpetrated by IS-KP, this att=
ack represents no change in the group&rsquo;s activity in the Northern Regi=
on, which is marked by a low appetite for risk but a high interest in targe=
ts that generate public attention. It is notable that on 21 April, three da=
ys after the previous rocket attack against Termez, an IS-KP affiliate deto=
nated his BBIED in a Shia mosque in Mazar City, causing at least 42 casualt=
ies. Since then, the group conducted five additional IED attacks against th=
e Shia minority. Currently, there is no evidence suggesting that a similar =
pattern should be expected, but with the increased levels of crowdedness ac=
ross Mazar City during the celebrations of the upcoming Eid al-Adha, the ri=
sk of such an incident cannot be neglected, particularly in areas where mem=
bers of the Shia community gather.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs should expect more thoroug=
h inspections at vehicle checkpoints in Hairatan City as well as elsewhere =
along the border in Kaldar and Shortepa districts. NGO staff on field missi=
ons in the area should be capable of explaining the mandate and activity of=
 their organisation in a manner that is accessible to IEA members manning V=
CPs and be able to present relevant permissions and identification document=
s upon request.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to inform their staff =
about the risks related to their participation in crowded religious events =
and of the need to remain mindful of suspicious behaviour of individuals in=
 their surroundings during such events so as to prevent their exposure to p=
otential, albeit unlikely attacks against religious sites.</div>								</d=
iv>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/07072022/#001								</div>
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hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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