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Date: Thu, 07 Jul 2022 11:10:32 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: Eid al-Adha Religious
 Observance
To: "Dr. Sayed Musa Musawy" <musawy@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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				=09
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, Multiple Locations</div>								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Eid al-Adha Religious Observance								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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								09/07/2022 08:00								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The three days of Eid al-Adha will be off=
icially observed from 09 July onward, with public and private observances a=
nticipated throughout the city.<br /><br />On the first day of Eid al-Adha =
on 09 July, religious observances are expected to begin at either 0800 or 0=
900 hrs at most mosques in the capital, lasting for approximately two hours=
. VIP participation is scheduled at the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/NXxv=
EybJ5PEkz5zQ6">Presidential Palace</a> in PD 2, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/m=
aps/iVQC9GmndQb7LNsT8">Eid Gah Mosque</a> in PD 1, <a href=3D"https://goo.g=
l/maps/6MwRk6yAUd9BtN6M6">Abdul Rahman Mosque</a> in PD 2, <a href=3D"https=
://goo.gl/maps/YYsZ4VZ4tD7sxR2M7">Puli Kheshti Mosque</a> in PD1, and the <=
a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/uxTaBphRmH3RGXC86">Wazir Akbar Khan Mosque</a=
> in PD 10. This is likely to result in temporary road closures on the morn=
ing of 09 July, although specific IEA plans could not be confirmed as of th=
e time of writing.<br /><br />In the run-up to the Eid al-Adha period, IEA =
security forces have increased their posture in multiple areas of the city =
through additional mobile checkpoints and patrols, in particular in the vic=
inity of key high-profile facilities such as Eid Gah Mosque and the Preside=
ntial Palace.<br /><br />Throughout Eid al-Adha, periods of sporadic celebr=
atory SAF are expected in multiple city areas in the evening hours and into=
 the night.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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<p>Given its religious and symbolic importance, OAGs in particular may seek=
 to increase their levels of activity during Eid al-Adha. By conducting att=
acks within the national capital during this time period, OAGs can highligh=
t their continued capabilities and intent to plan and execute operations as=
 well as the inability of IEA forces to curb their activities and ensure pu=
blic safety. For OAGs operating in Kabul City that base their political age=
nda primarily on a religious ideology, such as IS-KP, attacks during Eid al=
-Adha may also serve to strengthen their religious credentials towards thei=
r affiliates, thereby attracting additional members and support from sympat=
hisers.<br /><br />Furthermore, during Eid al-Adha movement plans and where=
abouts of individual senior IEA officials become significantly more predict=
able, which further facilitates targeted attacks. This mirrors the recent h=
igh-level IEA assembly at the Loya Jirga (see AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/2806202=
2/#001-U4), which presented OAGs with an opportunity to potentially cause c=
asualties among multiple senior IEA officials at once. At the same time, la=
rger concentrations of rank-and-file IEA members stationed at exposed check=
points outside government facilities similarly are potential targets for mo=
re low-impact guerrilla attacks.<br /><br />A potential escalation of OAG a=
ctivity during Eid al-Adha also poses distinct risks to NGO staff members d=
ue to the elevated likelihood of collateral exposure to SAF, IDF, and IED a=
ttacks. Staff members attending public gatherings at high-profile venues fo=
r an extended period of time or travelling during peak traffic hours throug=
h central Kabul are assessed to face a particularly heightened risk of expo=
sure. Meanwhile, IDF attacks conducted in an urban context always pose a hi=
gh risk of collateral impacts on civilians due to their limited accuracy, w=
hile offering OAGs a comparably low-risk alternative to more close-range SA=
F or IED-based attacks.<br /><br />After the change in government in August=
 2021, the frequency of OAG-authored incidents in Kabul City is overall exp=
ected to be significantly lower during the 2022 Eid al-Adha period compared=
 to 2021, when IEA forces authored 26 attacks against ANSF and GOA targets.=
 However, during last year&rsquo;s Eid al-Adha festivities other OAGs which=
 remain active after the IEA takeover, namely IS-KP affiliates, also conduc=
ted two attacks, including an IDF attack against the Presidential Palace an=
d an IED attack against a civilian store in PD 8. Although there is no furt=
her precedence for IS-KP-authored attacks during any previous Eid al-Adha p=
eriod before 2021, the group has gradually escalated its operations since 1=
5 August 2021. Since the IEA takeover, IS-KP affiliates have conducted 47 a=
ttacks within Kabul City, nearly three times the number of attacks recorded=
 between 2015 and 2020 (17). This continuous growth suggests an increased l=
ikelihood of further attacks during Eid al-Adha in 2022 than in the past.<b=
r /><br />Beyond the risk of OAG attacks during this period, criminal eleme=
nts may also seek to increase their activities, capitalising on security fo=
rces&rsquo; likely focus on preventing OAG operations. With the IEA expecte=
d to concentrate checkpoints and patrols around specific high-profile areas=
, secondary roads and neighbourhoods in the periphery may see reduced numbe=
rs of IEA forces. Combined with the anticipated rise in available targets o=
f opportunity due to increased movements of civilians, criminal activity ma=
y temporarily rise over Eid al-Adha.<br /><br />Celebratory gunfire also po=
ses a distinct risk to NGO staff and assets, as ubiquitous SAF can impact o=
n residential areas and erupt suddenly near staff members&rsquo; residences=
 and NGO compounds. Although IEA officials have repeatedly warned rank-and-=
file IEA members as well as private individuals against engaging in celebra=
tory gunfire, there have been only limited sanctions against violators thus=
 far.<br /><br />The heightened posture of IEA forces intended to counter O=
AG operations during Eid al-Adha will result in further impediments to NGO =
movements, while controls of both motorists and pedestrians at checkpoints =
may be temporarily intensified. In addition to increased traffic congestion=
 and travel times, intensified checks during a period of heightened threat =
levels can also result in more hostile interactions between checkpoint pers=
onnel and NGO staff members, representing a further source of potential ris=
k.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO focal points should ensure that NGO m=
ovements conducted on the morning of 09 July avoid venues where VIPs are ex=
pected to participate in Eid al-Adha prayers.<br /><br />Furthermore, NGO s=
taff members are advised to avoid large gatherings and to choose, to the ex=
tent possible, lower-profile areas to observe Eid al-Adha.<br /><br />If mo=
ving in crowded areas is necessary, NGO staff should remain aware of the ri=
sk of crime and maintain a low profile by avoiding the open display of cash=
 and valuable items.<br /><br />NGOs should ensure staff members carry all =
relevant documents, such as personal identification cards, permission lette=
rs, and other supporting documents when travelling through Kabul City.<br /=
><br />Should celebratory fire occur close to their locations, NGO staff ar=
e advised to stay indoors and clear of windows. NGO staff are also strongly=
 encouraged to avoid participating in celebratory firing.&nbsp;<br /><br />=
INSO will issue separate alerts in the event of an incident, as required.&n=
bsp;</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/07072022/#001								</div>
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										=09
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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=09
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