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Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2022 15:15:19 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <rbG44rZtS1C_h3ATVjayIw@geopod-ismtpd-2-0>
Subject: INSO UPDATE 3: REPORT - AFG - SAR-E PUL: Escalation of Tensions
 Between the IEA and a Hazara IEA Commander in Balkhab District
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:15.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;
									UPDATE 3: 									</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								Afghanistan, Sar-e Pul Province, Balkhab District								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Mobilisation of IEA Forces								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								17/06/2022 20:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
INFORMATION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 28 June, 1600 hrs=
:</strong> The IEA made the first attempt to enter Balkhab District on 23 J=
une, clashing with Mehdi's forces in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/Uxj=
tqk1PQyvMZ2wB6">Koh Moshkhana</a> area. One day later, with the use of heli=
copter attacks and reportedly also BBIEDs, the IEA arrived in Balkhab DAC <=
a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/2qSNL7omdY48XDjJA">Te Khoch</a>, while Mehdi'=
s forces retreated to the mountainous <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/PN74eU=
TwKGLxp8mu6">Hosh</a> area. Since the IEA's takeover of the Balkhab DAC, se=
veral developments suggested that the likelihood of this conflict lasting l=
onger than several weeks has increased.<br /><br />It is expected that Mehd=
i's followers will more frequently adopt irregular tactics when targeting t=
he IEA, instead of attempting to drive its forces out of the DAC through a =
frontal attack. Members of Mehdi's group initiated all three incidents reco=
rded in Balkhab District since 25 June. Their first attack was an armed cla=
sh on 25 June at 1300 hrs in which Mehdi's supporters seemingly tried to re=
gain the DAC, leading to over 50 casualties equally distributed between the=
 IEA and Mehdi's forces. After one day of no activity, Mehdi's followers co=
nducted a surprise attack at 0000 hrs on 27 June against the IEA which led =
to 27 casualties, mostly among the IEA members. Mehdi's forces also simulta=
neously destroyed a bridge in another part of the city, which previously co=
nnected Balkhab DAC with the surrounding villages where some of Mehdi's sup=
porters are believed to be hiding. Considering the advantage of the IEA in =
terms of numbers as well as equipment, irregular attacks conducted by Mehdi=
's group such as sabotage, night attacks, and ambushes of IEA members shoul=
d be expected in the upcoming days and weeks across Balkhab District.<br />=
<br />Thus far, IEA forces did not venture into any clearing operations out=
side of the DAC since 25 June, the reasons for which remained largely unkno=
wn. IEA spokesperson stated on 27 June that the situation in Balkhab Distri=
ct has been stabilised, though the security posture of the IEA and the cont=
inued activity of Mehdi's followers suggest that further clashes are highly=
 likely to occur. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the current inactivity =
of the IEA was in part caused by internal tactical disagreements, whereby t=
he non-Pashtun IEA members from the Norhtern Region reportedly consider cle=
aring operations in the mountainous areas to be risky and inefficient, as o=
pposed to the Pashtun IEA members from the south.&nbsp;<br /><br />Credible=
 reports of indiscriminate violence against civilians and non-combatants ha=
ve been recorded, though as mobile phone signal has been disabled in the di=
strict, the extent to which such violence occured remained unknown. The IEA=
 has been conducting search operations in Balkhab DAC and allegedly execute=
d several captured members of Mehdi's group as well as civilians believed t=
o be connected to the former IEA commander. The armed clashes also led to t=
he displacement of a large number of Te Khoch's inhabitants, most of which =
supposedly relocated to the villages surrounding the DAC, while some travel=
led beyond the district borders. Violence against civilians is likely to mo=
tivate some community members to join Mehdi's ranks, and as previously repo=
rted, at least 150 have already supported his forces since 25 June to count=
er the IEA's entry.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
ADVICE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">This report chain is now closed=
. However, the previous advisory to avoid Balkhab DAC and minimise movement=
 elsewhere in the proximity to Balkhab District remains in place.&nbsp;</di=
v>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INITIAL =
REPORT</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 22 June, 1400 hrs=
:</strong> The situation in Balkhab District remained unresolved at the tim=
e of writing and the recent movement of additional IEA forces towards the d=
istrict suggests that the significant potential for an armed confrontation =
persisted.<br /><br />Despite the ongoing mediation efforts, the IEA has be=
en accumulating an increasing number of its forces to the north of Balkhab =
District. Prior to 22 June, the IEA positioned a force of approximately 300=
&nbsp; in Samangan's <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/pVXQ9V4Aj6st4ApY7">Kota=
</a> area, 150 in Sancharak's <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/VMjC6PLUwc4YeJ=
Vh7">Ashtor Gardan Pass</a> area, and as recently revealed also 100 in Yaka=
wlang District in Bamyan. On 22 June, reports suggested that additional 300=
 IEA members arrived in Sar-e Pul City from Helmand Province, and convoys o=
f 70 and 60 vehicles departed from Balkh and Faryab provinces respectively =
towards Sar-e Pul City. These units were allegedly mobilised to support the=
 potential campaign against Mawlawi Mehdi, but no attempt to enter Balkhab =
District has been made thus far.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /><br />This concentration =
of IEA forces in Sar-e Pul City appears to confirm that in case the IEA ini=
tiates a campaign against Mehdi, its forces would likely enter Balkhab from=
 the northern <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/VMjC6PLUwc4YeJVh7">Ashtor Gard=
an Pass</a> area. Mehdi's men previously stationed in the <a href=3D"https:=
//goo.gl/maps/9jCsnHngjeSWjQhZA">Koh Moshkhana</a> area on 20 June to defen=
d this road retreated to Bakhab DAC one day later, likely because supplying=
 the units in such a mountainous area was impractical as long as the negoti=
ations are ongoing. On 21 June, however, the IEA closed this road to any ci=
vilian traffic, while the one to the east connecting Balkhab District with =
Samangan Province remained open for vehicle movement. It is also notable th=
at the IEA's Army Chief of Staff Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat visited the Ashtor =
Gardan Pass area on 20 June for an unknown reason. Should the recently accu=
mulated IEA force proceed from Sar-e Pul City towards Sancharak District, i=
t is likely that a confrontation would be imminent.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br />&nbsp;=
<br />The Hazara elders facilitating the communication between the IEA and =
Mehdi since 18 June have been successful at averting the violence thus far,=
 but the lack of trust between the parties seems to drive the negotiation i=
nto a stalemate. It has been reported that Mehdi expects to be imprisoned f=
or his defiance regardless of the IEA's offer, which stimulates his unwilli=
ngness to accept a negotiated solution. Details on the content of the negot=
iation were not available at the time of writing, but the apparent escalati=
on of the tension does not suggest any notable success in terms of deconfli=
ction. Nonetheless, as this communication channel between the IEA and Mehdi=
 has not been interrupted to date, a negotiated outcome remains to be a pos=
sible&mdash;though increasingly less likely&mdash;solution to the standoff.=
&nbsp; &nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisory to avoid northern=
 Balkhab and minimise movement elsewhere in the proximity to Balkhab Distri=
ct remains in place.&nbsp;</div>
<br />
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 20 June, 0800 hrs</strong=
>: Balkhab District has seen a series of events suggesting a further escala=
tion of tensions, with Mehdi's and IEA forces being in a standoff on the bo=
rder between Sancharak and Balkhab districts at the time of writing. Howeve=
r, the use of force has not been employed by either side thus far.<br /><br=
 />Between 19 and 20 June, Mehdi reportedly moved practically all of his fo=
rce of some 100 men to <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/9jCsnHngjeSWjQhZA">Ko=
h Moshkhana</a> area, which is located on a mountainous peak overseeing the=
 road connecting Balkhab and Sancharak districts. This was allegedly a pree=
mptive step as Mehdi was expecting IEA forces to attempt to enter the distr=
ict by this road after the ultimatum expired on the evening of 19 June. Thi=
s expectation likely comes from the fact that the 150 IEA forces to the nor=
th in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/VMjC6PLUwc4YeJVh7">Ashtor Gardan P=
ass</a> area have been stationed closer and more conveniently to access Bal=
khab District than those to the east in Samangan's <a href=3D"https://goo.g=
l/maps/pVXQ9V4Aj6st4ApY7">Kota</a> area. Therefore, the main potential for =
an armed confrontation in the next hours and days has been observed to the =
north of Balkhab where Mehdi's and IEA forces were positioned 2 km apart at=
 the time of writing. The eastern side of Balkhab District remained calmer =
and without any troop movement.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />In the abovementioned areas of no=
rthern Balkhab approximately at 0600 hrs on 20 June, both sides briefly exc=
hanged warning SAF from distance, but the fire subsided as local elders con=
vinced the IEA and Mehdi to return to negotiations. Similar efforts have be=
en underway throughout the last week, the latest of which was a delegation =
of Shia elders to Balkhab on 18 June. So far, all these efforts failed to b=
ring any significant progress in terms of deescalation.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<=
/div>
<br />
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to avoid all areas in =
the south of Sancharak and the north of Balkhab districts until further not=
ice.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisory to limit movement=
 to the necessary minimum remains in place for the western side of Samangan=
's Dara-e Suf-e Bala District.&nbsp;</div>
<br />
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 17 June, 2000 hrs:</stron=
g> Rumi Mehdi Mujahid, a Hazara IEA commander, ousted the Balkhab District =
Governor Mawlawi Atta on 01 June. In reaction, the IEA mobilised a force of=
 approximately 300 in Samangan&rsquo;s <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/myrjU=
E2goCsoiQ2e8">Kota</a> area and 150 in the Sancharak District of Sar-e Pul =
between 01 and 17 June. Five mediation missions have allegedly been sent to=
 Balkhab in the same period, all failing to alleviate the tension.<br /><br=
 /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Reports suggest that the IEA has given =
Mehdi an ultimatum on 17 June, stating that if both sides do not reach a ne=
gotiated solution in two days, IEA forces will enter Balkhab with the inten=
t to arrest Mehdi. Although the information about the ultimatum could not b=
e fully verified, the likelihood of violent confrontation between IEA and M=
ehdi&rsquo;s forces remains high with IEA units being on stand-by in the pr=
oximity of Balkhab. The materialisation of violence in the upcoming days wi=
ll likely depend on the ongoing efforts of Shia clerics and IEA members to =
mediate the tension.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Should an armed conflict erupt, the IEA=
 would recapture the district within days, but with heavy losses and likely=
 with indiscriminate violence being employed against the civilian Hazara po=
pulation. IEA forces positioned themselves on the two main roads leading to=
 Balkhab District, in Samangan&rsquo;s Kota area and in Sancharak DAC. This=
 would enable them to enter Balkhab from north and east simultaneously, str=
etching Mehdi&rsquo;s force of approximately 100 on two fronts. However, su=
ch a campaign would likely claim many lives of the IEA rank-and-file due to=
 the mountainous terrain of Balkhab District as well as the fact that many =
civilians would likely join Mehdi&rsquo;s effort to defend the area. This i=
s due to a combination of push and pull factors, including the fact that Me=
hdi enjoys broad support in Balkhab but also because of the general suspici=
on that the IEA would engage in blanket reprisals against Hazara civilians =
in case they capture the district. The reports of IEA&rsquo;s summary execu=
tions of civilians suspected of collaboration with the NRF in the Northeast=
ern Region likely fuel this fear. An important indicator of the potential i=
mpending escalation of the conflict in the upcoming days would be the movem=
ent of additional IEA forces from neighbouring provinces into Sar-e Pul, pa=
rticularly from Balkh.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Nonetheless, the ultimatum and the troo=
p build-up are expected to be an effective deterrent, increasing the likeli=
hood that the streak of failed mediation attempts will be broken and that a=
 negotiated solution will be reached. It has been reported that Mehdi&rsquo=
;s forces were not being mobilised at the time of writing and unconfirmed r=
eports suggested that a delegation of Shia clerics and IEA members is to me=
et Mehdi on 18 June at an unspecified location and attempt to mediate betwe=
en the IEA and Mehdi.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Balkhab District&rsquo;s significance f=
or the IEA is rooted in the financial revenues extracted from the coal mine=
s in the&nbsp;<a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/RANC6r2UR5PynQjaA">Gul Waras</=
a>&nbsp;area. The latest series of escalation of violence between Mehdi and=
 the IEA also started over a coal taxation issue, whereby Mehdi was accused=
 of illegally taxing each coal truck 10 000 AFN. On 31 May, the former dist=
rict governor attempted to arrest him for this, leading to a clash that res=
ulted in six casualties among IEA and Mehdi&rsquo;s forces. It is notable t=
hat even though Mehdi has been relieved of his position as the provincial h=
ead of GDI in Bamyan Province in late March and refused a non-security posi=
tion in Kabul, it was the coal taxation issue that triggered the situation =
into the stalemate currently observed in the district. This points to the i=
mportance of the coal mine to the provincial economy, and it indicates that=
 the IEA is unlikely to tolerate Mehdi&rsquo;s control over the district, e=
specially considering his multiple acts of defiance, be it his alleged crit=
icism of the IEA&rsquo;s approach to the Hazara community, his expressed di=
sapproval of the closure of schools for girls above the sixth grade, or his=
 refusal to heed the IEA&rsquo;s order for him to relocate to Kabul.<br /><=
br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to inform their staff =
of the developments in Bakhab District and instruct those present in the ar=
ea to leave if an escalation is observed in the upcoming days, including fu=
rther troop build-up, mobilisation of local forces, and reports of failed n=
egotiations.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Movement in and out of the district sho=
uld be reduced to a minimum, as IEA forces controlling the access to the ar=
ea are likely to be tense, impatient with NGO requests, and suspicious of u=
nnecessary travel. For the necessary movement, contacts with relevant local=
 IEA members as well as elders should be maintained for potential deconflic=
tion.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/17062022/#001-U3								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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