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Delivery-date: Thu, 23 Jun 2022 08:32:34 -0400
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Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2022 12:31:53 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <g1surH4XTka2wtGxyoiSPA@geopod-ismtpd-3-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= PANJSHIR: NRF Attack On IEA
 Helicopter Does Not Indicate Elevated Risk to Civilian Aircraft
To: Rohullah Azimi <rohullah.azimi@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Panjshir Province,=
 Shutul District, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/tmu8Ummdb7cN2jH1A">Koh-e A=
rezo</a> Area</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								NRF Attack IEA Helicopter								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								16/06/2022 16:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 16 June, OAG members affiliated with t=
he NRF fired SAF at an IEA helicopter transporting supplies to security for=
ces positioned in the title area. The helicopter subsequently made an emerg=
ency landing in a mountainous area in the vicinity.<br /><br />On 18 June, =
the NRF issued a statement through its official website, claiming to have c=
aptured four IEA members after NRF members had followed the aircraft as it =
made its landing. Pro-NRF social media channels further published multiple =
videos and pictures allegedly depicting the incident and its aftermath, inc=
luding the captured IEA members. NRF officials further called on the IEA to=
 facilitate a prisoner exchange on unspecified terms.<br /><br />On the sam=
e day, the Ministry of Defence issued a statement regarding the incident, n=
oting that one of its Mi-17 helicopters had made an emergency landing in th=
e title area during a test flight through Panjshir Province, due to unspeci=
fied &ldquo;technical difficulties&rdquo;. The statement further accuses NR=
F members of having destroyed the helicopter after it had landed. As of the=
 time of writing, the IEA has not issued an official response to the NRF cl=
aims regarding the allegedly captured IEA members on board the helicopter.<=
br /><br />The Koh-e Arezo area in northeastern Shutul District has seen pa=
rticularly heavy fighting since mid-May, with NRF affiliates having conduct=
ed at least nine separate attacks against IEA forces in the vicinity betwee=
n 07 May and 15 June. The clashes killed 13 IEA members and wounded 17 othe=
rs, while also killing three OAG members and wounding eight others.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The 16 June incident in the Koh-e Arezo a=
rea represents the first confirmed OAG attack against an IEA aircraft in Pa=
njshir to date, marking a further escalation of the protracted conflict in =
the province. The exact circumstances of the incident still remain largely =
unclear, due to limited access to information that is independent of the tw=
o conflict parties, and widely differing accounts from IEA and NRF official=
s. The highly remote character of the inaccessible Koh-e Arezo mountains an=
d the associated lack of basic infrastructure further exacerbates the verif=
ication of specifics.<br /><br />In particular, whether OAG members actuall=
y damaged and eventually forced the helicopter to conduct an emergency land=
ing, or whether the landing was unrelated to the SAF attack is ultimately s=
till unclear. While the footage that pro-NRF media outlets have published s=
hows the helicopter after it had landed, whether the emergency landing of t=
he aircraft was actually caused by critical damage sustained from SAF is un=
confirmed. Notably, the pro-NRF footage did not feature any anti-aircraft w=
eaponry, such as MANPADS, SAMs or other weapons system OAG members have use=
d during the previous conflicts in Afghanistan to attack helicopters.<br />=
<br />Since the IEA takeover on 15 August 2021, no actor has conducted any =
attacks against aircraft using anti-aircraft weaponry, suggesting that OAGs=
 in the Central Region currently do not possess the intent or capability to=
 deploy such weapon systems. In this context, the 24 May interception of tw=
o MANPAD missiles in the Khak-e Jabbar District of Kabul Province that were=
 in the process of being smuggled into Pakistan, rather than being sold to =
Afghan OAGs, further supports this assessment. At the same time, SAF from a=
utomatic rifles can still pose a significant risk to aircraft flying at a l=
ow altitude, as appears to have been the case for the helicopter shown in t=
he footage allegedly showing the incident in Koh-e Arezo.<br /><br />Despit=
e the 15 June attack targeting the IEA helicopter, it is currently assessed=
 as unlikely that OAG members operating in Panjshir Province would delibera=
tely target civilian aircraft crossing over their areas of operation, based=
 on both their ideological and operational profile. However, a low possibil=
ity of OAG members misidentifying low-flying civilian aircraft, in particul=
ar helicopters, nonetheless remains, which would pose a risk to NGO staff t=
ravelling on such aircraft.<br /><br />IEA forces are expected to continue =
their attempts to push into the Koh-e Arezo mountainside, despite a notable=
 lack of confirmed clashes in the area since 15 June. As this reduction in =
conflict activity is reported to be primarily the result of deteriorated lo=
cal weather conditions over the past ten days rather than a reduction in IE=
A numbers or intent, a resurgence of conflict activity near Koh-e Arezo is =
expected as soon as access to the area improves again.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs with operations in Panjshir should a=
nticipate continued elevated conflict activity in the Koh-e Arezo area as w=
ell as broader northeastern Shutul and northwestern Bazarak districts over =
the coming week, if weather conditions stabilise.<br /><br />When travellin=
g over Panjshir Province using civilian aircraft, in particular helicopters=
, NGO staff should ensure that pilots are aware of the risk of SAF from the=
 ground to ensure appropriate mitigation measures are in place, including m=
aintaining a safe minimum altitude at all times.<br /><br />In case of site=
 visits necessitating an aircraft landing in areas of Panjshir with an acti=
ve OAG presence, NGOs should seek to establish close contacts with communit=
y representatives prior to the arrival of staff through trusted intermediar=
ies, informing them beforehand of the movement and the planned use of an ai=
rcraft.<br /><br />NGO staff should avoid travelling in military aircraft, =
or aircraft resembling military aircraft in colour or make, unless during a=
n emergency situation such as a medical evacuation.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/23062022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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