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Date: Mon, 20 Jun 2022 06:37:21 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <As6jhg9PSYK5KKdn1YEsXQ@geopod-ismtpd-5-0>
Subject: INSO UPDATE: REPORT - AFG - SAR-E PUL: Escalation of Tensions Between
 the IEA and a Hazara IEA Commander in Balkhab District
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:15.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;
									UPDATE: 									</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Sar-e Pul Province, Balkhab District								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Mobilisation of IEA Forces								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								17/06/2022 20:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
INFORMATION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 20 June, 0800 hrs=
</strong>: Balkhab District has seen a series of events suggesting a furthe=
r escalation of tensions, with Mehdi's and IEA forces being in a standoff o=
n the border between Sancharak and Balkhab districts at the time of writing=
. However, the use of force has not been employed by either side thus far.<=
br /><br />Between 19 and 20 June, Mehdi reportedly moved practically all o=
f his force of some 100 men to <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/9jCsnHngjeSWj=
QhZA">Koh Moshkhana</a> area, which is located on a mountainous peak overse=
eing the road connecting Balkhab and Sancharak districts. This was allegedl=
y a preemptive step as Mehdi was expecting IEA forces to attempt to enter t=
he district by this road after the ultimatum expired on the evening of 19 J=
une. This expectation likely comes from the fact that the 150 IEA forces to=
 the north in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/VMjC6PLUwc4YeJVh7">Ashtor =
Gardan Pass</a> area have been stationed closer and more conveniently to ac=
cess Balkhab District than those to the east in Samangan's <a href=3D"https=
://goo.gl/maps/pVXQ9V4Aj6st4ApY7">Kota</a> area. Therefore, the main potent=
ial for an armed confrontation in the next hours and days has been observed=
 to the north of Balkhab where Mehdi's and IEA forces were positioned 2 km =
apart at the time of writing. The eastern side of Balkhab District remained=
 calmer and without any troop movement.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />In the abovementioned areas of no=
rthern Balkhab approximately at 0600 hrs on 20 June, both sides briefly exc=
hanged warning SAF from distance, but the fire subsided as local elders con=
vinced the IEA and Mehdi to return to negotiations. Similar efforts have be=
en underway throughout the last week, the latest of which was a delegation =
of Shia elders to Balkhab on 18 June. So far, all these efforts failed to b=
ring any significant progress in terms of deescalation.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<=
/div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
ADVICE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to avoid all a=
reas in the south of Sancharak and the north of Balkhab districts until fur=
ther notice.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisory to limit movement=
 to the necessary minimum remains in place for the western side of Samangan=
's Dara-e Suf-e Bala District.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INITIAL =
REPORT</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 17 June, 2000 hrs=
:</strong> Rumi Mehdi Mujahid, a Hazara IEA commander, ousted the Balkhab D=
istrict Governor Mawlawi Atta on 01 June. In reaction, the IEA mobilised a =
force of approximately 300 in Samangan&rsquo;s <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/ma=
ps/myrjUE2goCsoiQ2e8">Kota</a> area and 150 in the Sancharak District of Sa=
r-e Pul between 01 and 17 June. Five mediation missions have allegedly been=
 sent to Balkhab in the same period, all failing to alleviate the tension.<=
br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Reports suggest that the IEA has given =
Mehdi an ultimatum on 17 June, stating that if both sides do not reach a ne=
gotiated solution in two days, IEA forces will enter Balkhab with the inten=
t to arrest Mehdi. Although the information about the ultimatum could not b=
e fully verified, the likelihood of violent confrontation between IEA and M=
ehdi&rsquo;s forces remains high with IEA units being on stand-by in the pr=
oximity of Balkhab. The materialisation of violence in the upcoming days wi=
ll likely depend on the ongoing efforts of Shia clerics and IEA members to =
mediate the tension.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Should an armed conflict erupt, the IEA=
 would recapture the district within days, but with heavy losses and likely=
 with indiscriminate violence being employed against the civilian Hazara po=
pulation. IEA forces positioned themselves on the two main roads leading to=
 Balkhab District, in Samangan&rsquo;s Kota area and in Sancharak DAC. This=
 would enable them to enter Balkhab from north and east simultaneously, str=
etching Mehdi&rsquo;s force of approximately 100 on two fronts. However, su=
ch a campaign would likely claim many lives of the IEA rank-and-file due to=
 the mountainous terrain of Balkhab District as well as the fact that many =
civilians would likely join Mehdi&rsquo;s effort to defend the area. This i=
s due to a combination of push and pull factors, including the fact that Me=
hdi enjoys broad support in Balkhab but also because of the general suspici=
on that the IEA would engage in blanket reprisals against Hazara civilians =
in case they capture the district. The reports of IEA&rsquo;s summary execu=
tions of civilians suspected of collaboration with the NRF in the Northeast=
ern Region likely fuel this fear. An important indicator of the potential i=
mpending escalation of the conflict in the upcoming days would be the movem=
ent of additional IEA forces from neighbouring provinces into Sar-e Pul, pa=
rticularly from Balkh.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Nonetheless, the ultimatum and the troo=
p build-up are expected to be an effective deterrent, increasing the likeli=
hood that the streak of failed mediation attempts will be broken and that a=
 negotiated solution will be reached. It has been reported that Mehdi&rsquo=
;s forces were not being mobilised at the time of writing and unconfirmed r=
eports suggested that a delegation of Shia clerics and IEA members is to me=
et Mehdi on 18 June at an unspecified location and attempt to mediate betwe=
en the IEA and Mehdi.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Balkhab District&rsquo;s significance f=
or the IEA is rooted in the financial revenues extracted from the coal mine=
s in the&nbsp;<a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/RANC6r2UR5PynQjaA">Gul Waras</=
a>&nbsp;area. The latest series of escalation of violence between Mehdi and=
 the IEA also started over a coal taxation issue, whereby Mehdi was accused=
 of illegally taxing each coal truck 10 000 AFN. On 31 May, the former dist=
rict governor attempted to arrest him for this, leading to a clash that res=
ulted in six casualties among IEA and Mehdi&rsquo;s forces. It is notable t=
hat even though Mehdi has been relieved of his position as the provincial h=
ead of GDI in Bamyan Province in late March and refused a non-security posi=
tion in Kabul, it was the coal taxation issue that triggered the situation =
into the stalemate currently observed in the district. This points to the i=
mportance of the coal mine to the provincial economy, and it indicates that=
 the IEA is unlikely to tolerate Mehdi&rsquo;s control over the district, e=
specially considering his multiple acts of defiance, be it his alleged crit=
icism of the IEA&rsquo;s approach to the Hazara community, his expressed di=
sapproval of the closure of schools for girls above the sixth grade, or his=
 refusal to heed the IEA&rsquo;s order for him to relocate to Kabul.<br /><=
br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to inform their staff =
of the developments in Bakhab District and instruct those present in the ar=
ea to leave if an escalation is observed in the upcoming days, including fu=
rther troop build-up, mobilisation of local forces, and reports of failed n=
egotiations.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Movement in and out of the district sho=
uld be reduced to a minimum, as IEA forces controlling the access to the ar=
ea are likely to be tense, impatient with NGO requests, and suspicious of u=
nnecessary travel. For the necessary movement, contacts with relevant local=
 IEA members as well as elders should be maintained for potential deconflic=
tion.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/17062022/#001-U1								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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