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Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2022 15:44:15 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <P2q2Zw-cR_y1nQyYJWc_pA@geopod-ismtpd-2-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - SAR-E PUL: Escalation of Tensions Between the IEA
 and a Hazara IEA Commander in Balkhab District
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
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EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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								Afghanistan, Sar-e Pul Province, Balkhab District								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Mobilisation of IEA Forces								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								17/06/2022 20:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">Rumi Mehdi Mujahid, a Hazara IEA =
commander, ousted the Balkhab District Governor Mawlawi Atta on 01 June. In=
 reaction, the IEA mobilised a force of approximately 300 in Samangan&rsquo=
;s <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/myrjUE2goCsoiQ2e8">Kota</a> area and 150 =
in the Sancharak District of Sar-e Pul between 01 and 17 June. Five mediati=
on missions have allegedly been sent to Balkhab in the same period, all fai=
ling to alleviate the tension.</p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Reports suggest that the IEA ha=
s given Mehdi an ultimatum on 17 June, stating that if both sides do not re=
ach a negotiated solution in two days, IEA forces will enter Balkhab with t=
he intent to arrest Mehdi. Although the information about the ultimatum cou=
ld not be fully verified, the likelihood of violent confrontation between I=
EA and Mehdi&rsquo;s forces remains high with IEA units being on stand-by i=
n the proximity of Balkhab. The materialisation of violence in the upcoming=
 days will likely depend on the ongoing efforts of Shia clerics and IEA mem=
bers to mediate the tension.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Should an armed conflict erupt, the IEA=
 would recapture the district within days, but with heavy losses and likely=
 with indiscriminate violence being employed against the civilian Hazara po=
pulation. IEA forces positioned themselves on the two main roads leading to=
 Balkhab District, in Samangan&rsquo;s Kota area and in Sancharak DAC. This=
 would enable them to enter Balkhab from north and east simultaneously, str=
etching Mehdi&rsquo;s force of approximately 100 on two fronts. However, su=
ch a campaign would likely claim many lives of the IEA rank-and-file due to=
 the mountainous terrain of Balkhab District as well as the fact that many =
civilians would likely join Mehdi&rsquo;s effort to defend the area. This i=
s due to a combination of push and pull factors, including the fact that Me=
hdi enjoys broad support in Balkhab but also because of the general suspici=
on that the IEA would engage in blanket reprisals against Hazara civilians =
in case they capture the district. The reports of IEA&rsquo;s summary execu=
tions of civilians suspected of collaboration with the NRF in the Northeast=
ern Region likely fuel this fear. An important indicator of the potential i=
mpending escalation of the conflict in the upcoming days would be the movem=
ent of additional IEA forces from neighbouring provinces into Sar-e Pul, pa=
rticularly from Balkh.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Nonetheless, the ultimatum and the troo=
p build-up are expected to be an effective deterrent, increasing the likeli=
hood that the streak of failed mediation attempts will be broken and that a=
 negotiated solution will be reached. It has been reported that Mehdi&rsquo=
;s forces were not being mobilised at the time of writing and unconfirmed r=
eports suggested that a delegation of Shia clerics and IEA members is to me=
et Mehdi on 18 June at an unspecified location and attempt to mediate betwe=
en the IEA and Mehdi.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Balkhab District&rsquo;s significance f=
or the IEA is rooted in the financial revenues extracted from the coal mine=
s in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/RANC6r2UR5PynQjaA">Gul Waras</a> ar=
ea. The latest series of escalation of violence between Mehdi and the IEA a=
lso started over a coal taxation issue, whereby Mehdi was accused of illega=
lly taxing each coal truck 10 000 AFN. On 31 May, the former district gover=
nor attempted to arrest him for this, leading to a clash that resulted in s=
ix casualties among IEA and Mehdi&rsquo;s forces. It is notable that even t=
hough Mehdi has been relieved of his position as the provincial head of GDI=
 in Bamyan Province in late March and refused a non-security position in Ka=
bul, it was the coal taxation issue that triggered the situation into the s=
talemate currently observed in the district. This points to the importance =
of the coal mine to the provincial economy, and it indicates that the IEA i=
s unlikely to tolerate Mehdi&rsquo;s control over the district, especially =
considering his multiple acts of defiance, be it his alleged criticism of t=
he IEA&rsquo;s approach to the Hazara community, his expressed disapproval =
of the closure of schools for girls above the sixth grade, or his refusal t=
o heed the IEA&rsquo;s order for him to relocate to Kabul.</div>								</d=
iv>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to inform thei=
r staff of the developments in Bakhab District and instruct those present i=
n the area to leave if an escalation is observed in the upcoming days, incl=
uding further troop build-up, mobilisation of local forces, and reports of =
failed negotiations.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Movement in and out of the district sho=
uld be reduced to a minimum, as IEA forces controlling the access to the ar=
ea are likely to be tense, impatient with NGO requests, and suspicious of u=
nnecessary travel. For the necessary movement, contacts with relevant local=
 IEA members as well as elders should be maintained for potential deconflic=
tion.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/17062022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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