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Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2022 06:23:08 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <Tdz9Y6oZQtOEAifSCf8LBw@geopod-ismtpd-5-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - BALKH: NRF-Claimed Attack Does Not Signal
 Increasing Capability of the NRF in Balkh Province
To: Mohammad Zahid Ibrahimi <zahid.ibrahimi@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Balkh Province, Mazar City, PD 5, <a href=3D"https://g=
oo.gl/maps/NPHb96NGtXemJuvK6">Nasaji</a> Area								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SAF Attack Against IEA Forces								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								07/06/2022 21:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Four unknown gunmen on two moto=
rcycles opened SAF at four IEA members patrolling in PD 5 of Mazar City on =
07 June at 2100 hrs. Two IEA members were killed immediately during the inc=
ident while two were injured, with one of them succumbing to his wounds in =
the hospital later that day.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Two NRF-affiliated social media sites c=
laimed on 08 June at 1430 hrs that the NRF was responsible for the attack. =
No conflicting claims have been made by other groups.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At the time of writing, it appe=
ars that the incident represents the first attack conducted by NRF-affiliat=
ed individuals in Balkh Province, but there is little evidence suggesting t=
hat the activity of the group should expand in the province beyond such rar=
e opportunistic attacks in the upcoming months.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IS-KP continued to be the most active O=
AG in the province, though several circumstances of the attack suggest that=
 the group did not author the shooting on 07 June. Thus far, IS-KP issued a=
 claim of responsibility for all its attacks in the Northern Region within =
two days since each incident, while the 07 June attack remained unclaimed b=
y the group. Moreover, in most cases, IS-KP attacks focused on soft targets=
 among the Hazara community as well as the infrastructure, with only one at=
tack out of 11 being directed against IEA forces since late April, which wa=
s an IED attack against an IEA vehicle on 19 May. Finally, 10 out of 11 IS-=
KP-authored incidents were cases of remote violence with the use of IEDs, a=
nd the one hit-and-run SAF attack perpetrated on 12 June targeted civilian =
employees of the Mazar International Airport, not armed IEA members. Overal=
l, IS-KP's activity in Balkh Province has been characterised by the marked =
effort to avoid confrontation with the IEA and by the claiming of responsib=
ility for each attack, as the group continued to wish to capitalise on the =
publicity generated by attacks outside of its usual area of operation.<br /=
><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The shooting on 07 June represents the =
first incident in Mazar City in which armed IEA members have been attacked =
in a hit-and-run manner from a close range since 23 January, and it was the=
 first confirmed attack that the NRF claimed in the province. It is therefo=
re likely that the perpetrators were individuals with ties to the organisat=
ion, even though a direct link between them and the NRF could not be immedi=
ately confirmed. Apart from the claim, the first indication of the NRF&rsqu=
o;s involvement is the scale of the attack and the risk undertaken by the a=
ttackers, whereby this incident differs from previously recorded shootings =
in which disgruntled citizens or individuals seeking personal revenge attac=
ked the IEA in the Northern Region in 2022. Throughout January and February=
 in the Northern Region, on at least two occasions, IEA convoys or checkpoi=
nts were targeted by SAF in different northern provinces which caused no ha=
rm or damage as the shots were fired from distance, likely to reduce the ri=
sk of confrontation by the attackers. The second indication of possible inv=
olvement of opposition elements is that the posture of the IEA remained inc=
reased at least two days after the attack on 07 June, as opposed to the sit=
uation after all the IS-KP attacks since April, which were marked by an unc=
hanged or even temporarily decreased posture in Mazar City.<br /><br /></di=
v>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The risk to NGOs ensuing from this atta=
ck is assessed as very low, as it does not signal a substantial increase of=
 NRF&rsquo;s capability in the region which may trigger a more robust react=
ion from the IEA as observed in Northeastern Region. While the IEA&rsquo;s =
posture was slightly increased immediately after the attack, the incident d=
id not lead to a greater effort to apprehend NRF individuals, likely becaus=
e the IEA considered the attack to be an isolated incident and not a sign o=
f NRF&rsquo;s expansion. Therefore, although it is likely that similar atta=
cks will occur occasionally as the perpetrators remain at large, the IEA is=
 unlikely to conduct large-scale search operations as long as the NRF does =
not sharply increase the number of attacks or shows attempts to control poc=
kets of territory in the Balkh Province. The main risk to NGOs, therefore, =
is limited to the low-probability exposure to indirect SAF should NGO staff=
 be in the proximity of a similar attack against an IEA position in the upc=
oming months. In case the activity of the NRF expands in the province, NGO =
staff with connections to the group or to former ANSF, which has been often=
 targeted during anti-opposition operations across the country, will face a=
n increased risk of being subjected to search operations and potentially al=
so temporary arrests. At the time of writing, however, this risk is assesse=
d as very low.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to minimise th=
e time spent in proximity of IEA forces, particularly at VCPs, outposts, an=
d areas where IEA members gather informally. Such sites are likely to be ta=
rgeted during similar sporadic SAF or IED attacks by individuals aligned wi=
th opposition groups.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Should any of the NGO staff or their fa=
mily members be loosely connected to NRF members or the ANSF, NGOs should m=
aintain relevant contacts among the IEA and local elders to facilitate deco=
nfliction efforts.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/15062022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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