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Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2022 04:52:23 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KAPISA: IEA Troop Deployment
 and Curfew May Impact Access
To: Rohullah Azimi <rohullah.azimi@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kapisa Province, H=
esa-e Awal-e Kohestan District, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/FF6BFxvRf8uE=
CtSQ9">Sanjan</a> Area</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								IEA Troop Deployment and Curfew								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								04/06/2022 08:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p>On 04 June, IEA forces in the title area gathered local community repres=
entatives and informed them that civilians should not leave their residence=
s after 2100 hrs, citing the risk of OAG activity in the area. While reside=
nts will still be allowed to leave their residences in case of unspecified =
emergencies, movements should be minimised. IEA officials further recommend=
ed to residents to vacate the area altogether, if possible. The curfew is u=
nderstood to be limited to the Sanjan area and does not extend to other set=
tlements in northern Kapisa.<br /><br />The announcement coincided with the=
 deployment of approximately 600 IEA members to the Sanjan area, reportedly=
 mostly from Uruzgan Province.<br /><br />In the run-up to the deployment o=
f IEA forces, OAG members conducted ten attacks in Kapisa Province over the=
 course of 19 days between 17 May and 04 June, of which the majority (seven=
) took place in the northern Hisa-e Awal-e Kohestan District. The attacks k=
illed at least one individual and wounded five others. <br /><br />Over the=
 same time period, IEA forces conducted two operations against suspected OA=
G members and stockpiles in Hisa-e Awal-e Kohestan and Kohband districts. N=
o further OAG attacks have been confirmed in Kapisa Province since 04 June.=
</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p>The implementation of a curfew and the large deployment of additional IE=
A forces in the Sanjan area are assessed to be directly related to increase=
d OAG activity in northern Kapisa Province in recent weeks. This increase a=
ppears to have been the result of a spill-over from neighbouring Panjshir P=
rovince, where OAG forces have faced increased pressure from IEA reinforcem=
ents, leading to NRF-affiliated groups in southern Panjshir shifting operat=
ions to areas with a comparably lower concentration of security forces, suc=
h as northern Kapisa as well as Parwan. The Sanjan area has seen low levels=
 of OAG activity in recent months but is located in close proximity to the =
Panjshir border, which further suggests that the IEA deployment was primari=
ly aimed at cutting off OAG movements between the two provinces, rather tha=
n combatting OAGs in Sanjan itself.<br /><br />The deployment of the large =
additional contingent of IEA members may have temporarily halted this spill=
-over, as suggested by the notable drop in OAG activity in the province sin=
ce 04 June. Although no proactive IEA search operations or intensified patr=
ols have been reported in the Sanjan area, the arrival of such a large forc=
e concentrated in close proximity to the border by itself may have deterred=
 OAG members from conducting further attacks, to avoid searches and counter=
attacks against their own positions. In addition, despite remaining largely=
 static, IEA forces have likely improved their monitoring capabilities of t=
he surrounding countryside as a result of the latest deployment of reinforc=
ements to northern Kapisa.<br /><br />On the other hand, the impact of the =
curfew in the Sanjan area on OAG capabilities is likely to remain limited. =
This is based on the assessment that the increase in OAG activity in northe=
rn Kapisa was authored by NRF affiliates crossing into Kapisa from neighbou=
ring Panjshir, rather than local OAG members intensifying their own activit=
ies, meaning that local residents are unlikely to have offered substantial =
material support to Panjshir-based NRF members conducting operations in the=
 area in recent weeks. Should OAG activity resurge, the curfew may nonethel=
ess reduce the likelihood of civilian casualties by reducing their exposure=
 to armed clashes between IEA and OAG forces.<br /><br />For NGOs, the curf=
ew is similarly unlikely to significantly impact operations, given that pro=
gramme-related road movements are generally not conducted after dusk. Howev=
er, in particular for national staff conducting private movements on foot o=
r by car, the curfew will result in additional limitations and may increase=
 the risk of IEA detention. While the area for the curfew is understood to =
be limited to Sanjan itself, it is conceivable that individual IEA members =
manning checkpoints or on patrol in other areas of northern Kapisa interpre=
t the issued curfew more broadly, both in terms of its geographical reach a=
nd its time limits.<br /><br />Furthermore, a potential further militarisat=
ion of the border area between Panjshir and Kapisa through additional IEA t=
roop deployments, nightly curfews, and other potential measures may also le=
ad to a general reduction in freedom of movement for NGOs operating in the =
border area. Although to date, no access restrictions impacting NGOs have b=
een reported from northern Kapisa or southern Panjshir, a renewed deteriora=
tion in the threat environment may lead to additional restrictions and inte=
nsified scrutiny being imposed on all civilian travel through the area, inc=
luding for NGO staff. Similar dynamics of short-term access restrictions im=
posed by local authorities in response to an increase in conflict activity =
have recently been witnessed in Panjshir Province (see AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/=
R/10052022/#002).</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p>NGOs with ongoing project implementation in Kapisa Province are advised =
to inform staff members of the curfew implemented in the Sanjan area, and i=
ts potential implications for movements in the vicinity of Sanjan.<br /><br=
 />NGOs should seek to confirm the status of routes they intend to use for =
road movements through trusted local intermediaries or other partners as cl=
ose as possible to the time of departure.<br /><br />NGOs should ensure all=
 relevant documents, such as personal identification cards, permission lett=
ers, and other supporting documents are available in all vehicles and that =
staff members are able to clearly communicate the origin, destination, and =
purpose of the journey to checkpoint personnel.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/13062022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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