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Delivery-date: Thu, 12 May 2022 13:38:43 -0400
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Date: Thu, 12 May 2022 17:38:02 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <sRkxgpaZTb6SO7qMN4tZPA@geopod-ismtpd-4-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - SAMANGAN: IEA pre-empts NRF expansion into
 Samangan Province
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Afghanistan, Samangan Province, Aybak District, <a href=3D"https://=
goo.gl/maps/rde49jiGaHq73VP77">Tandorak</a> Area								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								IEA's anti-OAG activity								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								09/05/2022 12:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 09 May at approximately 1200=
 hrs, IEA forces conducted a targeted operation against a small OAG group l=
ed by Ajab Gul, who had been hiding in the Agha Peto area of Aybak District=
 since the IEA takeover. Ajab Gul was killed in the attack and his body was=
 displayed in front of the Provincial Governor&rsquo;s office for one day.<=
br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Prior to this operation, on 28 April, a=
pproximately 20 members of IEA&rsquo;s 313 Badri Corps arrived in Aybak Cit=
y, and in coordination with the local IEA's Red Unit established mobile che=
ckpoints and arrested five people over the course of one day, all suspected=
 of being connected with the NRF or Ajab Gul.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The latest series of anti-oppos=
ition incidents suggests the IEA&rsquo;s attempt to pre-empt a territorial =
expansion of the NRF into Samangan. NRF members authored no incidents in Sa=
mangan Province since the IEA takeover, but the uptick of NRF&rsquo;s attac=
ks against IEA positions in the nearby provinces such as Takhar, Baghlan, a=
nd Panjshir likely led to the IEA&rsquo;s increased sense of urgency to app=
rehend potential and existing opposition members in Samangan.<br /><br /></=
div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Ajab Gul&rsquo;s small cell is the only=
 armed opposition with a proven foothold in Samangan Province, and the IEA&=
rsquo;s concern about its presence fluctuated significantly since the takeo=
ver. On 30 November 2021, IEA forces attempted to arrest Gul and several of=
 his followers in Tandorak area of Aybak District, which resulted in a fire=
fight and the death of at least four members of Gul&rsquo;s group. Followin=
g the incident, Gul continued to live in hiding in the mountainous area of =
Agha Peto with up to 15 followers and they conducted no operations against =
the IEA. Between the end of March and the beginning of April 2022, local so=
urces reported that Gul briefly left the area for an unknown reason, and ap=
proximately two weeks later he was sighted in Aybak City, in reaction to wh=
ich the IEA slightly increased the number of patrols in the areas adjacent =
to Agha Peto. However, even then the IEA&rsquo;s overall posture remained l=
ow, and no attempts to apprehend Gul were reported. Considering that Gul&rs=
quo;s group marked no similar activity since then and that the IEA perceive=
d his presence as rather unthreatening in the recent months, it appears tha=
t the operation on 09 May was motivated by the recent uptick of NRF activit=
y in the provinces in the Central and Northeastern regions. It is likely th=
at the IEA attacked Gul&rsquo;s OAG pre-emptively, potentially suspecting h=
im of having forged an alliance with the NRF during his absence from the ar=
ea in late March.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Gul&rsquo;s cell is unlikely to disband=
 following his death, though its activity will remain minimal in the upcomi=
ng months. The likelihood that the remnants of Gul&rsquo;s group will parti=
cipate in the latest escalation of NRF&rsquo;s activity is assessed as low,=
 as Gul&rsquo;s allegiance to any OAG currently operating in Afghanistan ha=
s never been confirmed, despite ample media reports suggesting that he was =
affiliated with the NRF. Local sources claimed that Gul contacted the NRF a=
nd travelled to Panjshir between March and April to explore the potential f=
or patronage and financing, though this meeting reportedly did not translat=
e into any tangible connection between the two groups and no further contac=
t has been made. The same sources reported that Gul primarily hoped to rece=
ive support from Samangan&rsquo;s former Junbish commander Toor Mohammad ex=
iled in Tajikistan, with whom Gul was affiliated prior to the IEA takeover.=
 It is likely that Gul&rsquo;s successor, believed to be one of the group&r=
squo;s current members Hamidullah Kosa, will follow in Gul&rsquo;s footstep=
s, in which case it is improbable that the group will establish a link with=
 the NRF and contribute to the recent intensification of NRF&rsquo;s activi=
ty targeting the IEA. Nonetheless, the risk of search operations and potent=
ially sporadic clashes between the IEA and Gul&rsquo;s group remains elevat=
ed, as the IEA may target the remaining members in the effort to prevent th=
e expansion of OAG elements into Samangan.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In this context, the arrival of the Bad=
ri forces was an indicator of the impending anti-opposition activity. Even =
though the Badri Corps is known to conduct regular movements to provinces o=
utside of Kabul unrelated to the security developments, they also historica=
lly acted as a force multiplier due to their better training and equipment.=
 In Samangan, they allegedly arrived to support the local Red Unit in their=
 search for members of Ajab Gul&rsquo;s group, and they arrested two of Gul=
&rsquo;s followers who were then transported to Kabul on 05 May, four days =
ahead of the IEA&rsquo;s operation against Gul&rsquo;s position. Therefore,=
 should an unexpected presence of Badri forces be observed in other provinc=
es across the Northern Region in the next month, a similar increase in anti=
-opposition activity would be likely to occur, including search operations =
and arrests at mobile checkpoints.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs should inform their staff =
of the latest developments, particularly those with a connection to the for=
mer ANSF and PGM structures who may come under closer scrutiny of the IEA i=
n the coming month.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is advisable that NGO staff travelin=
g to Aybak District, and particularly to Tadorak and Agha Peto areas, are c=
apable of explaining the mandate and activity of their organisation in a ma=
nner accessible to IEA members manning additional mobile checkpoints search=
ing for members of OAGs.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs should limit the time spent in the=
 proximity of IEA forces to reduce the collateral risk of stray SAF related=
 to potential exchanges of fire between the IEA and OAG elements.</div>				=
				</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/12052022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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