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Date: Tue, 10 May 2022 05:23:39 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <-r21L_vLQQadGBB_s0od2w@geopod-ismtpd-3-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: OAG Attacks on IEA
 Forces in Kabul City Pose Risk To NGOs
To: Mohammad Arif Tabesh <dr.tabesh@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
4; margin: 0 auto; background: #fff; text-align: center; border-collapse: c=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, PD 5, PD 6, PD 11, Multiple Areas</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								OAG Attacks on IEA Forces								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								08/05/2022 17:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">Between 16 April and 08 May, four SAF att=
acks against IEA forces took place within the limits of Kabul City, with NR=
F and AFF affiliates claiming responsibility for each attack in their after=
math. While both NRF and AFF affiliates claim to have conducted a significa=
nt number of other attacks within Kabul City since the IEA takeover on 15 A=
ugust 2021, the three attacks marked the first NRF and AFF-claimed SAF atta=
cks INSO was able to verify within Kabul City to date.<br /><br />On 16 Apr=
il, around 1500 hrs, an AFF member attacked an IEA outpost along a secondar=
y road in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/kgmXzqaposQbreVE9">Sharak-e Ha=
ji Nabi</a> area of PD 6 with SAF, killing two IEA members and wounding one=
 other before escaping. Two days later, NRF members attacked an IEA outpost=
 in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/ShyQGbChgDA4uUkU8">Hazara-e Baghal</=
a> area of PD 11 with SAF and then fled the scene. On 29 April, AFF members=
 attacked an IEA checkpoint on a secondary road near the <a href=3D"https:/=
/goo.gl/maps/gWc6HVNuqHzDhjEo6">Pul-e Company</a> area of PD 5 with SAF, ki=
lled four IEA members and wounded three others, then escaped from the area.=
<br /><br />Most recently, on 08 May at approximately 1700 hrs a suspected =
AFF member fired several shots of SAF towards an IEA vehicle carrying offic=
ials from the Ministry for the Prevention of Vice and Promotion of Virtue a=
long a secondary road in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/ifcYjdARZqe4h1g=
79">Afshar</a> area of PD 5. The attack wounded two IEA members, while the =
assailant managed to escape.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The notable increase in AFF and NRF-claim=
ed attacks within Kabul City since mid-April suggests that affiliates of th=
e groups have gradually expanded their area of operations. With the excepti=
on of an IED detonation in PD 11 on 27 February, before April 2022 OAG memb=
ers affiliated with NRF, AFF, and other similar groups had only conducted a=
ttacks in other districts of Kabul Province, in particular Paghman and Qara=
bagh districts. Both districts have historically had strong links to the AN=
SF, whose former members represent a core recruitment demographic for both =
groups.<br /><br />Furthermore, in these disticts, the likelihood of an eff=
ective IEA response to an OAG attack is significantly lower than within Kab=
ul City, suggesting that the shift in geographical focus is also a reflecti=
on of a higher risk tolerance on the part of OAG members. Escape corridors =
for OAG members are generally narrower within urban environments compared t=
o rural areas, while security forces maintain a more concentrated operation=
al footprint and have more robust response capabilities. These factors grea=
tly increase the risk of sustaining casualties for OAGs or having their mem=
bers arrested in the aftermath of an attack.<br /><br />The changes in loca=
tion within Kabul City for the four attacks between 16 April and 08 May are=
 also notable, as they seem to gradually move further towards more central =
areas of Kabul. While the first of the four attacks on 16 April occurred on=
 the southern outskirts of PD 6 and was followed by an attack in the northe=
rn outskirts of PD 11 on 18 April, the 29 April attack occurred in close vi=
cinity to the strategic Pul-e Company Bridge near the main Maydanshahr High=
way in PD 5. Finally, the 08 May attack took place within the centre of PD =
5 in Afshar in relative proximity to major security forces installations du=
ring the afternoon, again suggesting a growing OAG risk tolerance.<br /><br=
 />Although this shift in focus points to more robust levels of OAG intent,=
 its implications for OAG capabilities are still somewhat unclear. Despite =
the increased frequency of AFF and NRF-authored attacks in Kabul since mid-=
April, their central locations, and their notable casualty count, the targe=
ts of the attacks and their overall modus operandi still indicate that thes=
e OAGs maintain limited resources within the capital. In all four attacks, =
the assailants fired a limited number of SAF rounds towards exposed and iso=
lated IEA members manning checkpoints, guarding installations, or patrollin=
g, and avoided an extended firefight by immediately fleeing the scene.<br /=
><br />Based on this precedent and the associated assessment of capabilitie=
s of AFF and NRF affiliates within Kabul City, future attacks may follow si=
milar patterns in terms of locations, targets, and tactics. As such, sporad=
ic hit-and-run SAF attacks against IEA patrols and checkpoints in particula=
r are likely to remain the primary type of attack associated with both grou=
ps. The majority of these attacks are still expected to focus on the outski=
rts of PDs in the western and northern part of Kabul City, although the pos=
sibility of further related incidents taking place in more central neighbou=
rhoods also must be considered.<br /><br />The often densely-populated char=
acter of these neighbourhoods also highlights the primary risk to NGOs asso=
ciated with all types of SAF attacks, namely collateral exposure of staff m=
embers to ongoing armed clashes between OAG and IEA members. All of the rec=
ent incidents involved SAF attacks along secondary road in largely resident=
ial areas, two of which took place during the afternoon hours, when high vo=
lumes of traffic further increase the likelihood of NGO staff members being=
 in transit to and from their residences and getting caught up in clashes. =
The targeting of VCPs in particular poses a high risk in this regard, as bo=
th national and foreign NGO staff members in transit may be forced to spend=
 long periods of time at checkpoints due to extended documentation checks o=
r general traffic congestion. OAG attacks may also prompt large-scale searc=
h operations in an affected area, which are likely to also impact uninvolve=
d civilians, including NGO personnel.<br /><br />At the same time, given th=
eir overall operational and ideological profile, the risk of AFF or NRF aff=
iliates deliberately targeting NGO personnel or compounds is currently asse=
ssed as low.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to maintain awareness of=
 the risk posed by OAG activity within Kabul, in particular around IEA inst=
allations on the outskirts of the city. Despite a recent focus on PDs in we=
stern and northern Kabul, NGOs should remain aware of the mobile nature of =
OAGs and the continued risk of exposure to attacks in other areas of the ci=
ty.<br /><br />Where possible, NGO personnel should seek to limit the time =
spent at IEA checkpoints and other installations. While travelling, drivers=
 should seek to keep a safe distance of at least six vehicle lengths from t=
he nearest IEA vehicle to reduce the likelihood of collateral exposure to S=
AF.<br /><br />In case of ongoing armed clashes in their vicinity, NGO staf=
f should immediately seek adequate physical cover, while moving as far away=
 from the source of the clashes as is deemed safe at the time. Without comp=
romising their personal safety, NGO staff should inform senior NGO personne=
l as well as relevant IEA officials of the situation, providing key informa=
tion (where, what, when, who) to facilitate an emergency response.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/10052022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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