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Date: Mon, 09 May 2022 11:39:36 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <m-Z7apcnS8m7bcWasiMSVQ@geopod-ismtpd-3-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= NORTHEAST: Potential
 Resumption of Conflict Activity is Likely to Result in Access Challenges
To: Naseer Ahmad Gulzai <gulzai@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Northeastern Region								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Potential Resumption of Conflict Activity is Likely to Result in Ac=
cess Challenges								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								05/05/2022 12:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In Baghlan Province, the IEA ha=
ve established a permanent force of 250 IEA members, with approximately 50 =
tactical vehicles, Humvees and pickup-type vehicles, and reportedly several=
 armored multi-purpose vehicles. This force was divided between Bano, Deh S=
alah, and Pul-e Hisar districts. Reportedly, these forces rotate approximat=
ely every two months. In addition to these permanent forces, the IEA leader=
ship gradually relocated additional forces from Kunduz and Takhar provinces=
 to address the perceived NRF threat in Baghlan.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 03 May, an estimated force of 200 NR=
F fighters took over Dehzaran, Pajek, Sardasht, and Dahi Bala Main Shahr ar=
eas in Warsaj District of Takhar Province. No armed clashes were reported a=
s part of the takeover. Local reports suggest the NRF established two check=
points in the Dahi Bala Main Shahr area after entering the areas. Furthermo=
re, according to the same sources, local supporters raised the flag of NRF =
in the previously mentioned area. The IEA security forces did not intervene=
, and no armed confrontation took place.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 05 May, at approximately 1200 hrs, t=
he NRF took control over the Warsaj DAC without encountering any armed oppo=
sition. However, at around 1900 hrs, 150 IEA members entered Warsaj Distric=
t and regained control over the DAC area, while the NRF members left toward=
s the Dahi Bala Main Shahr area. The territorial shift again took place in =
the absence of any skirmishes.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Due to a perceived increased th=
reat posed by the NRF in Baghlan, the IEA security forces increased their p=
osture in the province. Starting in March, the IEA security forces establis=
hed an increased permanent footprint in Andarab, Khost, and Nahrin district=
s of Baghlan. Additionally, the IEA manned three additional checkpoints in =
Pul-e Khumri City: in Sarak-e Awal Nasaji and Band-e Awal Barq areas of PD =
1 and Pul-e Madan area of PD 2. Between 31 March and 06 April, the security=
 forces numbers reached 850 IEA members and over 130 tactical vehicles, Hum=
vees and pickup-type vehicles. Furthermore, on 31 March, the regional IEA l=
eadership requested additional forces from Balkh and Samangan provinces, a =
further indication of the IEA's concern regarding the threat posed by the N=
RF and potential plans for a spring offensive and in an attempt to hinder t=
he group from succeeding in making territorial gains.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The IEA leadership's concerns are justi=
fied by recent clashes, which resulted in disproportionate impacts on IEA f=
orces compared to NRF. Since 01 March, the IEA security forces have engaged=
 in firefights against the NRF on eight occasions in Baghlan Province, resu=
lting in 36 IEA members killed and 18 wounded compared to only two NRF figh=
ters killed and seven wounded. The unequal distribution of casualties might=
 be indicative of a difference in fighting capacity and training between th=
e two forces and possibly of the presence of former ANSF members within the=
 NRF's ranks, who benefitted from training with the IMF prior to the IEA ta=
keover, possibly giving the group an advantage when it comes to operation p=
lanning.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The IEA strategy of drawing forces from=
 other provinces of the Northeastern Region to suppress NRF activity in Bag=
hlan Province possibly created opportunities for NRF advances outside their=
 previously known area of operations. The IEA deployed security forces from=
 Takhar, Kunduz, Balkh and Samangan provinces and from Taleh Wa Barfak, Nah=
rin, Dehn-e Ghori districts of Baghlan, and Pul-e Khumri City to Khost, Ban=
o, Deh Salah and Pul-e Hisar districts. While the IEA military focus on Kho=
st, Bano, Deh Salah, and Pul-e Hisar districts, in which they launched mult=
iple operations, was likely caused by an assessment that these districts ha=
rboured NRF forces or individuals willing to support the group, it may have=
 caused a vacuum in the areas from where the forces were drawn. As such, IE=
A's amassing of security forces in Baghlan's districts resulted in increase=
d freedom of movement and enabled the NRF to launch operations in other pro=
vinces of the Northeastern Region. As a result, on 03 May, approximately 20=
0 NRF fighters took over Dehzaran, Pajek, Sardasht, and Dahi Bala Main Shah=
r areas of Warsaj District without encountering any armed resistance. After=
wards, NRF members established two checkpoints in the Dahi Bala Main Shahr =
area. Furthermore, on 05 May, at approximately 1200 hrs, the NRF took contr=
ol over the Warsaj DAC, again, without encountering any armed resistance. I=
t is likely that in the future other resistance forces, in addition to and =
separately from the NRF, will continue to exploit such opportunities given =
by a decreased security footprint of the IEA, especially in the vicinity of=
 &nbsp;mountainous areas of Baghlan, Takhar, and even Badakhshan provinces&=
rsquo; districts neighbouring settlements in which the IEA has low acceptan=
ce or where residents even look for means to openly oppose, as it was the c=
ase with Maydan Payen area in Kohistan District of Badakhshan Province. Pre=
viously, on 11 April, 10 residents of Kohistan District organised themselve=
s and, after receiving firearms and ammunition from NRF members from Baghla=
n Province, attacked an IEA outpost with SAF and RPGs. Following the attack=
, two IEA members were killed, three others were wounded. Such incidents ar=
e likely to become more frequent in Takhar and Badakhshan, with locals will=
ing to stage attacks against the IEA but depend on NRF groups in other prov=
inces to provide the means, given IEA&rsquo;s recent search operations targ=
eting civilians that possess weapons and ammunitions.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The NRF takeover of the Warsaj DAC is t=
he first takeover of a DAC by any OAG since 15 August 2021 and might indica=
te the groups intention to challenge territorial control when the opportuni=
ty presents itself. However, only hours after NRF took control of Warsaj DA=
C, at around 1900 hrs, IEA redistributed their forces, and 150 IEA members =
entered Warsaj District and regained control over the DAC area without enco=
untering any armed opposition, while the NRF members withdrew towards the D=
ahi Bala Main Shahr area. The ease with which the NRF entered the Warsaj DA=
C suggests a lack of capacity from IEA to plan and execute security operati=
ons as a regular force and a potential shortage of manpower, which might be=
 stretched to defend multiple areas of concern at once. However, at the sam=
e time, &nbsp;the fact that the IEA regained control without any skirmishes=
 also shows that the NRF most likely does not currently have the capacity t=
o take over control by force or to defend gained territory. The group seems=
 to avoid engaging in firefights in areas familiar to the IEA or where the =
security forces would be able to use their superiority in numbers choosing =
mobility and speed over static defense.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Further escalations between the IEA and=
 the NRF are likely to affect NGO access to areas where the two actors oper=
ate.&nbsp;Following the NRF operations in Baghlan Province, the IEA launche=
d 12 search and arrest operations in Burka, Deh Salah, Guzargah-e Nur, Bano=
, and Nahrin districts resulting in the arrest of 41 individuals suspected =
of either NRF affiliation or cooperation, and the seizure of 11 assault rif=
les, three handguns, and an unspecified amount of ammunition. Given the fac=
t that most of the areas in the above-mentioned districts of Baghlan Provin=
ce are thought to be supportive of the NRF, should attacks against the IEA =
security forces continue, not only will IEA-search and arrest operations co=
ntinue but the scrutiny of IEA forces is also highly likely to increase at =
checkpoints and during patrols. This is likely to result in indiscriminate =
arrests, access issues for NGOs operating in areas thought to harbour the N=
RF should the IEA question the NGOs' neutrality, or temporary loss of acces=
s in case of armed confrontations. Furthermore, given the unpredictable tim=
ing of IEA operations in the area, which have often led to firefights, the =
risk of collateral risk to NGO staff members should be considered.</div>			=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to remain cogn=
izant of potential territorial shifts in their areas of operations and main=
tain communications with the local authorities, community elders, and other=
 relevant actors regarding their area of operations.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are further advised to establish f=
ocal points within the IEA security forces and advocate to be informed when=
 operations are unfolding in the areas where they have ongoing projects, or=
 they use for transit.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs security managers are advised to r=
e-visit the contingency plans specific to armed conflict and ensure that al=
l staff is aware of procedures, roles, and responsibilities in such scenari=
os.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO drivers should always approach chec=
kpoints in a de-escalating manner, slowing down and avoid making sudden mov=
es as these might result in a negative reaction from the IEA security force=
s manning the VCP. Furthermore, NGO staff should always have their national=
 identification documents as well as their organisations-issued ID, and any=
 necessary written permission to operate in the area, to show upon request.=
<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff members are further advised t=
o sanitize their electronic devices of any media content that might look in=
criminatory, such as pictures or videos of security structures or military =
materials, pictures with workers or officials of the former GOA, and/or any=
 other material that might represent a violation of the IEA-promoted social=
 rules.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdoun=
i<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngos=
afety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/09052022/#001								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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