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Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2022 08:30:42 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= BAMYAN: IEA Issues Threat
 Warning for Schools and Mosques over OAG Attack Risk
To: "Dr. Faiq Sediqi" <faiq.sediqi@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Bamyan Province, B=
amyan City, All PDs</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Threat Warning								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								25/04/2022 10:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p>On 25 April, senior IEA officials held a meeting with representatives fr=
om the Shia community in Bamyan City, warning of an increased risk of OAG a=
ttacks against mosques and schools attended by Shia individuals in Bamyan P=
rovince. The officials further cautioned the elders to call on members of t=
he community not to visit their mosques or schools for at least 15 days. Th=
e officials did not provide additional, concrete information regarding the =
nature of the threat itself.<br /><br />Following the meeting, Shia mosques=
 within Bamyan City closed down, while officials at various schools have re=
portedly increased security measures at their facilities, such as bolsterin=
g their unarmed guard staff. No similar closures or elevated security postu=
res have been reported from other districts of Bamyan Province.<br /><br />=
IEA forces have strengthened their posture within Bamyan City, with additio=
nal mobile checkpoints and patrols sighted in particularly crowded localiti=
es, including the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/ZfACmbEVndenFWYV8">Bazaar<=
/a> area, although no additional deployments of IEA forces to the city have=
 been reported.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p>While IEA officials did not disclose the source of their information in =
the 25 April meeting, it is conceivable that the threat warning was primari=
ly prompted by recent high-profile attacks against institutions associated =
with the Hazara and Shia communities in Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif, Emam Saheb, =
and Herat in April 2022, rather than concrete evidence of ongoing OAG activ=
ities in Bamyan Province. The fact that no OAG-authored incidents or IEA op=
erations targeting OAG members have been recorded in the province since 15 =
August further strengthens this assessment. To date, no incidents related t=
o IS-KP affiliates, the most likely culprits behind the recent attacks agai=
nst Hazara and Shia individuals, have been recorded in the province.<br /><=
br />In the past, IEA forces have responded to increases in IS-KP activity =
in specific provinces and regions by proactively heightening their posture =
and search operations in areas without previous IS-KP attacks, despite an a=
bsence of credible information suggesting the presence of IS-KP affiliates =
in an area. While such a proactive stance could conceivably be effective in=
 containing IS-KP efforts to expand operations into new areas, it also sugg=
ests a lack of actionable intelligence reports guiding these response effor=
ts, with officials assessing all areas to have an equal chance of seeing an=
 increase in IS-KP activity (see also AFGHANISTAN/SOUTHEAST/R/22092021/#001=
). <br /><br />At the same time, the reduced security forces footprint with=
in population centres and along main highways compared to the former ANSF i=
s assessed to have generally increased the freedom of movement of OAG membe=
rs across the country. As a result, since the IEA takeover, IS-KP affiliate=
s have claimed attacks in previously largely unaffected areas, including in=
 IEA strongholds in the Southeast and Southern Region (see AFGHANISTAN/SOUT=
H/R/21102021/#001) and in this context, the possibility of such an expansio=
n into Bamyan Province needs to be considered. Although the province has hi=
storically not had an IS-KP presence, given the high density of established=
 IS-KP targets&mdash;namely members and institutions of religious and ethni=
c minorities&mdash;the group&rsquo;s affiliates would most likely have high=
 levels of intent to launch attacks in the province.<br /><br />While the e=
xpansion of OAG activity into Bamyan Province remains conceivable based on =
these factors, an elevated IEA security posture is likely to be the primary=
 impact on NGO operations in the provincial capital in the short term. A re=
peat of the large-scale IEA search operations observed in other provinces i=
n February and March 2022 is nonetheless currently assessed to be unlikely,=
 based on the limited available information authorities seem to possess to =
narrow down the area or type of threat OAG members pose in the capital or t=
he province at large. <br /><br />Scrutiny at checkpoints and the frequency=
 of patrols along main and secondary roads may both see an increase in the =
short term, as a means to demonstrate capabilities and improve control over=
 individuals' movements. This heightened posture is expected to remain in p=
lace at least until the end of the upcoming Eid al-Fitr festivities, as lim=
ited resources will likely limit the feasibility of maintianing such an ele=
vated security posture for an extended period of time.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p>NGOs are advised to inform staff members operating in Bamyan Province of=
 the reported nature of the threat warning and encourage personnel to maint=
ain heightened vigilance around locations commonly targeted by IS-KP affili=
ates, such as mosques and schools, as well as security forces installations=
.<br /><br />NGO personnel should anticipate increased travel times to and =
from Bamyan City, as controls at IEA checkpoints at access points into the =
city as well as within the city itself may be temporarily intensified.<br /=
><br />NGO safety managers are further advised to critically assess rumours=
 of OAG activity in Bamyan Province and manage their spread among staff mem=
bers due to the continued lack of evidence of organised opposition to the I=
EA in the province.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/27042022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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