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Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2022 08:39:54 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <rqfL0R66TyiRp56_HVCILg@geopod-ismtpd-3-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - NORTHEASTERN REGION: Recent Attacks on IEA
 Members Do Not Suggest Increased Risk for NGOs
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Afghanistan, Northeastern Region								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Recent Attacks on IEA Members Do Not Suggest Increased Risk for NGO=
s								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								06/04/2022 13:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 03 April, at approximately 0=
930, an IED exploded as the vehicle transporting the Deputy of the Provinci=
al Commander of the Police was crossing on a secondary road of Pul-e Ustad =
Rabani area, in PD 3 of Fayz Abad City. No casualties were recorded as a re=
sult of the attack, while the culprits remain unknown at the time of writin=
g.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The attack follows a recent incident on=
 17 March, when two members of the IEA security forces were killed and anot=
her one wounded following an attack against an IEA outpost in the Kotal-e P=
alfi area in Khost District on Baghlan Province. Prior to this, on 16 March=
, unknown individuals targeted an IEA vehicle with a roadside IED in the Pu=
l-e Danishgah area in PD 2 of Fayz Abad City, wounding a civilian and damag=
ing the IEA vehicle. Since 15 August, unknown actors targeted the IEA secur=
ity forces on 35 occasions, in 26 shootings, seven IED attacks, one grenade=
 attack, and one beheading, resulting in 34 IEA members killed and 10 other=
s wounded in the Northeastern Region.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The risk of IDF/ collateral dam=
age to civilians and NGO staff remains low despite a recent spike in the nu=
mber of armed attacks against the IEA security forces. Even though the 35 a=
ttacks against the security apparatus resulted in 46 casualties, only two o=
f them were civilians. In both cases, the wounds were caused by an IED expl=
osion. Except for the IEDs, the attacks against the IEA members took place =
in areas with limited civilian exposure, and were purposely planned so that=
 the perpetrators could &nbsp;flee the area without being seen, further red=
ucing the possibility of collateral casualties.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">No actor has claimed responsibility for=
 the recent incidents. However, similar attacks have been mounted against t=
he IEA security forces by OAGs, disgruntled elements within the IEA, and di=
ssatisfied civilians. INSO cannot confidently establish that these attacks =
were carried out by an OAG, such as the NRF or IS-KP. Since 15 August, NRF =
activity has been concentrated in the southeast of Baghlan Province and the=
re are no reports of NRF presence or activity in the rest of the Northeaste=
rn Region. Furthermore, only five of the 35 unknown authored attacks again =
the IEA were recorded in Baghlan Province. IS-KP, the only other known OAG =
to have the capacity to engage with IEA,&nbsp; have claimed only two attack=
s with limited impact against IEA members since 15 August, and it is highly=
 unlikely that the group would not claim successful operations given their =
propaganda value. Discontent amongst the local population and intra-IEA div=
isions are likely to have contributed to the high number of incidents again=
st the IEA security forces.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Sporadic attacks against IEA members ar=
e likely to continue in the coming weeks. Since the collapse of the previou=
s government, the IEA security forces have been able to maintain control, a=
lthough this relied on the population&rsquo;s perception that any oppositio=
n would be severely punished. The relatively lax law enforcement and low pr=
esence of the security forces may now alter this perception, encouraging an=
d enabling anti-IEA groups to organise attacks against IEA members to desta=
bilise the new regime.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff members are not presu=
med to be under significant threat from local actors targeting the IEA secu=
rity forces at this time. The most broadly effective threat mitigation meth=
ods remain the same regardless of who the perceived aggressors are.<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff are advised to minimise the e=
xtent of time spent near IEA checkpoints, patrols, private residence, and h=
igh-profile facilities to limit their exposure to collateral risk.<br /><br=
 /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">When in traffic, NGO staff members are =
advised to keep a distance of six to seven car lengths from IEA vehicles an=
d convoys.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs in Northeastern Region are advised=
 to maintain previously established security protocols, despite the end of =
countrywide hostilities in mid-August.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdoun=
i<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngos=
afety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/06042022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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