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Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2022 15:24:58 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <Af4XLCGoRe2GuAz3RhJ6ZQ@geopod-ismtpd-2-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - BALKH: Nowruz Celebrations Unlikely to Lead to
 Public Unrest
To: "Dr. Hafizullah Khalilzoy" <hafiz@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
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EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Balkh Province, Mazar-e Sharif City, PD 11, <a href=3D=
"https://goo.gl/maps/nA3BUPpRsHW2RVVS9">Blue Mosque</a> Area								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Nowruz Celebrations								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								21/03/2022 08:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 21 March, communities across=
 Afghanistan will celebrate the Persian New Year Nowruz. In the Northern Re=
gion, Nowruz is mainly celebrated in Mazar-e Sharif City, and many visitors=
 come from across the region for the occasion. Nowruz is observed by all Ma=
zar&rsquo;s residents regardless of ethnicity. In Mazar City, the celebrati=
on is concentrated in PD 11 in the Blue Mosque area, where on the first day=
 a special banner is raised, and a religious ceremony is performed inside t=
he mosque.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The IEA authorities have historically l=
abelled Nowruz as un-Islamic. This year, they have not yet released an offi=
cial statement authorizing the celebration and the Ministry of Vice and Vir=
tue expressed informally that Afghans should refrain from participating in =
the festivities. IEA leadership in Mazar City is allegedly waiting for the =
instruction from Kabul as to whether to allow the main ceremony, which for =
now remains banned. However, the Mayor of Mazar-e Sharif said that the city=
 is being prepared for the arrival of visitors, while also pointing out tha=
t security would be assured.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The IEA posture inside the city remaine=
d unchanged at the time of writing, although checkpoint searches at the cit=
y gates have reportedly become more thorough.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The main Nowruz celebration in =
the Blue Mosque is unlikely to be permitted, but IEA forces will not repres=
s small informal celebrations and no confrontations between the general pub=
lic and the IEA are expected.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The overall uncertainty as to the IEA&r=
squo;s attitude towards Nowruz will discourage many residents from celebrat=
ing publicly, particularly if the ban remains in place. To date, INSO recor=
ded no incidents related to Nowruz in Northern Region, but the fact that th=
is is the first year that the celebration will take place under the IEA&rsq=
uo;s control reportedly discourages local communities from participating in=
 any ceremony or large gathering. Many residents fear arrests and physical =
harm from IEA forces and will therefore likely prefer to celebrate privatel=
y at home and by walking in the streets of the city.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">If Nowruz celebrations are formally pro=
hibited, the likelihood that a large crowd will protest the ban will be low=
 due to the IEA&rsquo;s attitude towards protests in general and the lack o=
f protests in the Northern Region since the IEA takeover. The only demonstr=
ation against the IEA recorded in Northern Region since 15 August 2021 was =
related to internal IEA tensions and occurred in Faryab in January 2022, ma=
rking several casualties, including one civilian. After these events, IEA a=
uthorities instructed local residents not to protest, adding to the general=
 public&rsquo;s perception that protests will not be tolerated.<br /><br />=
</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Mazar City leadership seems inclined to=
 allow informal celebrations, despite the lack of higher-level guidance on =
whether the main ceremony is banned. Besides the fact that the officials an=
nounced that the city is being cleaned and prepared for the occasion, there=
 were also rumours that the IEA authorities considered allowing several eld=
ers into the Blue Mosque to raise the banner in the early morning hours of =
21 March. These rumours remain unconfirmed, but the leadership&rsquo;s atti=
tude and security posture do not suggest that they will violently oppose in=
formal commemorations. However, in the unlikely event that a crowd forms an=
d requests entry into the Blue Mosque without IEA&rsquo;s permission to hol=
d Nowruz celebrations, it is expected that the IEA will disperse the gather=
ing. IEA forces would then likely use force that may involve warning SAF, g=
iven the past record of the IEA&rsquo;s approach to crowd control.<br /><br=
 /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Road closures, increased scrutiny at ch=
eckpoints, and petty crime related to the high number of visitors arriving =
in Mazar City should be expected on 21 and 22 March. Road closures will occ=
ur due to increased traffic and the IEA&rsquo;s precautionary measures arou=
nd the Blue Mosque.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">As in the past, the city authorities su=
ggested that this year a high-level visit from Kabul to Mazar City during N=
owruz remains possible, without providing any details. This would further a=
ffect the traffic and the IEA&rsquo;s security posture on the road between =
the airport and the Provincial Governor&rsquo;s office.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff members are advised t=
o avoid large gatherings.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">If moving in crowded areas is necessary=
, NGO staff should exercise increased situational awareness and maintain a =
low profile by avoiding displaying money and valuable items.<br /><br /></d=
iv>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs should consider rescheduling plann=
ed activities or movements to after Nowruz celebrations on 23 March due to =
anticipated road closures. NGO staff should also expect greater scrutiny at=
 vehicle checkpoints prior to and during Nowruz.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">INSO North will continue to monitor the=
 situation and provide updates as required.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org&nbsp;">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org&nbsp;</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/19032022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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