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Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2022 17:44:46 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTH_SA <sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <dD7tk8buQhGoXYCUCX7VxA@geopod-ismtpd-6-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - FARYAB: Increased Risk of Confrontation Between
 IEA Factions
To: "Dr.Muhammad Faiq" <faiq.sediqi@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								Afghanistan, Faryab and Sar-e Pul Provinces, All Districts								<=
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Risk of Armed Confrontation								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								03/03/2022 12:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Since 03 March, there have been=
 a series of demotions of Uzbek IEA personnel from the Northern Region. Two=
 high-profile Uzbek commanders, Mawlawi Attaulah Omari and Qari Salahuddin =
Ayoubi, were transferred to non-security roles in Kabul.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Omari was the commander of the 209 Al F=
atah Corps, transferred to be the Deputy Minister of Technology and Logisti=
cs for the Ministry of Defense. He was replaced by a Pashtun IEA commander =
Mawlawi Amir Khan Haqqani. Omari was involved in the containment of recent =
protests related to the arrest of Makhdom Alim and he expressed satisfactio=
n with the transfer to Kabul on social media.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Salahuddin is a senior Uzbek IEA comman=
der, formerly the shadow Governor of Faryab Province between 2013 and 2015.=
 Since the IEA takeover in August 2021, Salahuddin was based in Paktia, act=
ing as the commander of the 203 Mansouri Corps, though his location as of J=
anuary 2021 was contested. On 03 March, he was called upon to become the De=
puty Minister of Planning and Policy at the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitatio=
n and Development. He has not accepted nor refused the position at the time=
 of writing. &nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 07 March, Pashtun-commanded IEA forc=
es confiscated all weapons other than handguns of an Uzbek Chief of Police =
of Jawzjan Province in Qara Kent Village, in an operation that is reportedl=
y understood as a pre-emptive act to limit the military capacity of the com=
mander.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Uzbek IEA members have staged no protes=
ts nor expressed any open form of resistance since 03 March. However, anecd=
otal reports suggest that some parts of the Uzbek IEA forces are dissatisfi=
ed with the decisions made by central authorities.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The political developments in t=
he Northern Region suggest a renewed effort of the central IEA leadership t=
o solidify their influence in the region to the detriment of non-Pashtun IE=
A elements. The recent swaps of Uzbek commanders for Pashtun IEA members we=
re less controversial than the arrest of Makhdom Alim, but the lack of reso=
lution of Salahuddin&rsquo;s case creates an elevated risk of protests and =
conflict between IEA factions in Faryab and Sar-e Pul provinces over the ne=
xt three to four weeks.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Many Uzbek IEA members in the province =
believe that the central authorities are trying to reduce the influence of =
Uzbek IEA commanders and extend the central control over the Northern Regio=
n. Amongst many Uzbeks, such shifts in position are therefore controversial=
. In late January, the arrest of an Uzbek commander Makhdom Alim sparked pr=
otests of local communities and loyal IEA members in Maymana City and Sar-e=
 Pul City, leading to SAF and at least four injuries.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Currently, reports suggest that forces =
loyal to Seraj and particularly Salahuddin are displeased by the decision, =
though without taking any action. Omari&rsquo;s removal was not as controve=
rsial because he was satisfied with his new position.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">There is a long-standing distrust betwe=
en Salahuddin and the central IEA authorities, despite the fact that he was=
 instrumental in the IEA&rsquo;s conquest of the Northern Region in 2021. T=
his may have contributed to his removal, and to his unwillingness to accept=
 the new position.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The current tension related to Salahudd=
in&rsquo;s non-decision about the new position has not so far led to any pr=
otests or any increase of the security posture of Pashtun-commanded IEA for=
ces in the area. However, approximately 100 additional units from the Al Fa=
tah Corps stationed in Maymana City following Alim's arrest remain in place=
, and IEA authorities have instructed IEA members and local residents not t=
o protest. These efforts to deter unrest appear to have been successful.<br=
 /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Nonetheless, the sense of marginalisati=
on among the Uzbek IEA forces and communities has once again been spurred, =
which has the potential to create operational challenges for NGOs in the ar=
ea, depending on Salahuddin&rsquo;s decision and central IEA&rsquo;s reacti=
on to it. Concretely, should Salahuddin refuse the transfer to Kabul, the I=
EA may attempt to arrest him, likely leading to the same scenario as seen i=
n January. This means that Salahuddin&rsquo;s estimated force of 700 in Far=
yab and 300 in Sar-e Pul may stage protests that could escalate into exchan=
ges of fire between IEA factions over the next three to four weeks or until=
 Salahuddin's position has been resolved. The provinces may also see increa=
sed rates of anonymous SAF attacks at IEA checkpoints and convoys, and pote=
ntially defections of non-Pashtun IEA members to any OAG, should they estab=
lish a footprint in the area.&nbsp;&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs with programmes in Faryab an=
d Sar-e Pul should maintain good situational awareness and stay in contact =
with key local stakeholders. <br /><br />NGOs should inform staff of these =
developments, particularly those who live in Maymana and Sar-e Pul City. Th=
ey should be reminded to avoid large gatherings, and leave the area if heat=
ed verbal or physical exchanges break out between different IEA groups due =
to the potential for rapid escalation of force. <br /><br />NGOs should see=
k to limit the time spent at IEA checkpoints and other installations, in or=
der to minimise the risk of secondary exposure to possible disputes between=
 IEA factions.</p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA North, Marek Baron<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.north@afg.ngo=
safety.org&nbsp;">sa.north@afg.ngosafety.org&nbsp;</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/10032022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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