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Envelope-to: faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo
Delivery-date: Mon, 07 Feb 2022 00:18:47 -0500
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Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2022 05:18:06 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_SOUTHEAST_SA <sa.southeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <YTSGSO8AR4m2wWC1kIXHxA@geopod-ismtpd-4-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= GHAZNI: Arrest of Alleged
 IS-KP Member Does Not Indicate Increased Risk to NGOs
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd'><html><body><head><meta name=3D'viewport'=
 content=3D'initial-scale=3D1.0'><title>Alert Update</title></head><body><c=
enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Ghazni Province, A=
jrestan District, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/KrJHAe1BUF4kJ3N27">Sangar<=
/a> Area</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Arrest of Alleged IS-KP Member								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								15/01/2022 14:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At the above time and location,=
 IEA forces arrested a man accused of leading an IS-KP cell in Ajrestan. He=
 was taken to the Nili DAC area.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The incident does not suggest a=
 change of risk levels for NGOs operating in Arjestan District, Daykundi Pr=
ovince, or Ghazni Province. There is no evidence of IS-KP presence in the d=
istrict or named province, and it is most likely that the man was arrested =
due to an localized political dispute. These disputes escalate to violence =
only rarely and therefore pose an extremely unlikely threat to NGOs.<br /><=
br />There is currently no evidence of any OAG presence in Ajrestan Distric=
t. The incident is the first recorded security incident in Ajrestan since 1=
5 August 2021, and INSO has not received any reports of IS-KP recruiting in=
 the district. No OAG has claimed an attack in Ghazni or Daykundi provinces=
 since 15 August through known channels, and INSO has never recorded an IS-=
KP-authored attack in either province.<br /><br />The arrest is more likely=
 to have been motivated by an localized political dispute. Local sources re=
port that the man was a current or former IEA member, although INSO was una=
ble to definitively establish the man's identity. He was reportedly dissati=
sfied with IEA leadership because he was not granted a post in the provinci=
al government following the events of 15 August 2021. Higher-level disagree=
ments over whether Arjestan is part of Daykundi or Ghazni may also have pla=
yed a role in creating tensions in the district.<br /><br />The incident is=
 extremely unlikely to escalate into violence. It lacks the ethnic componen=
t that led to unrest in Faryab in mid-January, and the arrested man was not=
 known to command armed individuals before 15 August. Organized opposition =
to the arrest is therefore highly unlikely to emerge.<br /><br />That the m=
an was involved in an local political dispute does not rule out IS-KP affil=
iation. It is possible that he supported the group because of his political=
 differences with IEA leadership or was denied a post because of IS-KP conn=
ections. The presence of IS-KP cells in Ajrestan remains plausible, if unli=
kely, and the lack of attacks could be explained by harsh winter weather or=
 a desire to build networks without detection.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO safety managers are advised=
 to critically assess rumors of OAG activity in Ghazni and Daykundi provinc=
es and manage their spread among staff members due to the continued lack of=
 evidence of organized opposition to the IEA.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are further advised to engage in c=
ontingency planning for various scenarios that could emerge following the e=
nd of winter. NGOs are encouraged to seek INSO support for such efforts.</d=
iv>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Southeast, Xander Palmer<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.sout=
heast@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.southeast@afg.ngosafety.org</a></p>								</di=
v>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/SOUTHEAST/R/07022022/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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