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Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2022 09:05:45 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO UPDATE 2: REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL, NANGARHAR &
 KUNAR: Possible Heightened Threat of Expatriate Abductions
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:15.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
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									UPDATE 2: 									</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul, Nangarhar &=
amp; Kunar Province, Provincewide</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Possible Heightened Threat of Expatriate Abductions								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								12/10/2021 22:15								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
INFORMATION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 02 January 2022:&=
nbsp;</strong>Further reports, received over the past 72 hours and assessed=
 as credible, indicate that actors seeking to abduct foreign nationals rema=
in active.<br /><br />In addition to previous threat warnings on related ac=
tivities in Kabul, Kunar, and Nangarhar provinces, the most recent informat=
ion indicates that actors have engaged in preperatory acts, including surve=
illance operations, which may currently be ongoing in Kabul Province. No sp=
ecific locations or organisations within Kabul Province have been highlight=
ed as facing a particularly elevated risk in the assessed information.<br /=
><br />Both OAGs and OCGs have demonstrated capabilities and intent to cond=
uct abductions targeting foreign nationals. Assailants may act on financial=
 or political motives, which may influence their behaviour and priorities d=
uring the abduction and subsequent capture phase.<br /><br />While this ele=
vated risk is unlikely to be limited to expatriate NGO staff members, assai=
lants may consider NGO personnel to be more easily accessible than foreign =
nationals working for other organisations. Assailants are expected to have =
conducted extensive surveillance on their intended target ahead of the abdu=
ction, exploiting established weaknesses in mitigation plans and recurring =
patterns of life of expatriate personnel.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
ADVICE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisory to increase counter=
-surveillance efforts and review established safety measures related to the=
 mitigation of abductions remains in place.</p>
</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INITIAL =
REPORT</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 25 October, 1830 =
hrs:</strong> INSO has received additional information related to the possi=
bly heightened risk of expatriate abductions. While the initial information=
 pertaining to Kabul and Kunar provinces remains unchanged, the additional =
information increases the risk in Nangarhar and, more specifically, Jalalab=
ad City. As was the case with the initial report, INSO assesses the informa=
tion as highly credible.&nbsp;<br /><br />Both politically-motivated OAGs a=
nd financially-motivated OCGs are present in Jalalabad City and may current=
ly be looking for opportunities to kidnap expatriates in the city. The plan=
s are most likely currently in the target selection phase, with precursory =
operations, in particular surveillance of frequented locations and movement=
s of potential targets, ongoing. However, affiliated groups are assessed to=
 retain the capability to transition to the execution phase rapidly; striki=
ng potential targets should the opportunity present itself.<br /><br /></di=
v>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisory remains in place.=
&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>Information:</strong><br />INSO h=
as received information, which it deems credible, regarding a possibly heig=
htened risk of expatriate abductions within Kabul, Nangarhar and Kunar prov=
inces for an indeterminate time period. <br /><br />Concrete details regard=
ing potential locations, perpetrators and motives for these abductions are =
currently largely unclear. While Kabul City itself is assessed to be the pr=
imary focal point for this threat, related incidents may also take place in=
 population centres in Nangahar and Kunar Province as well as during road t=
ravel between these locations.<br /><br />Both politically-motivated OAGs a=
nd financially-motivated OCGs may currently be involved in precursory opera=
tions, in particular surveillance attempts of frequented locations and move=
ments of potential targets.<br /><br />The latest threat warning follows sh=
ortly after previous advisories issued by the US and UK governments issued =
on 11 October warned of imminent threats to hotels in Kabul City. It remain=
s unclear whether both threat warnings are causally connected.<br /><br /><=
strong>Analysis:</strong><br />While abductions of expatriates have signifi=
cantly dropped in frequency since their last peak in 2015-2016, the intent =
of both OAGs and OCGs to conduct abductions is assessed to have remained un=
changed during this time period. However, since 15 August, overall security=
 provisions in the form of barriers, patrols, and vehicle checkpoints have =
visibly reduced in population centres, opening up potential operational spa=
ces for threat actors.<br /><br />Incentive structures for both OAGs and OC=
Gs specialising in abductions have also been significantly affected by the =
changed operating environment. OAGs may seek to conduct high-profile abduct=
ions of expatriates as a means to gain international media attention. By ta=
rgeting expatriates, OAGs may also seek to highlight shortcomings in the ca=
pabilities of the incumbent administration and underline their primacy over=
 rival groups.<br /><br />At the current time, IS-KP affiliated cells are a=
ssessed to be the OAGs most capable of conducting expatriate abductions in =
areas where they have an established foothold, such as Kabul, Kunar and Nan=
garhar provinces. However, other OAGs with similarly proven capabilities, i=
ntent and motives also continue to operate in Afghanistan and the broader r=
egion.<br /><br />OCGs previously focused on more risk-averse operations ma=
y assess a need to shift towards more high-risk, high-reward abductions for=
 ransom as a result of the overall deterioration of economic conditions. Wh=
ile IEA forces have conducted a total of 68 operations targeting criminal e=
lements in Kabul Province since 15 August, only nine targeted OCGs, instead=
 of opportunistic criminals. Meanwhile, OCGs executed at least five abducti=
ons targeting Afghan nationals over this time period across the province.</=
p>
</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>Advisory:</strong><br />NGOs ar=
e advised to exercise additional caution in the period to come and to reduc=
e unnecessary movements as possible in the indication provinces, at least u=
ntil more information is available.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In addition, NGOs are advised to review=
, retrain, and strictly enforce existing protocols for movement and counter=
-surveillance with all staff. These should include, but not necessarily be =
limited to, the following:&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Counter-surveillance:</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* Guards should monitor CCTV cameras, i=
f they exist, at all times, and report any suspicious activity, such as an =
individual standing in front of the compound for no apparent reason, or a v=
ehicle with persons inside that is seen parked in front of the compound for=
 several days in a row. If they feel comfortable doing so, guards can engag=
e the individual(s), as this may deter further surveillance.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br=
 /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* When CCTV cameras do not exist, NGO g=
uards should be encouraged to exit the compound at irregular intervals, and=
 particularly around the times when expatriate staff are moving, and monito=
r the surroundings, similarly noting down, reporting, and, if feasible, eng=
aging, any suspicious individual(s).&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* NGO guards should engage in frequent =
conversations and build good relations and trust with neighbours, as they c=
an also serve as a source of information on unusual developments or movemen=
ts.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* All staff, while in transit, should m=
aintain situational awareness (avoid sleeping or using the phone unnecessar=
ily) and report any vehicle suspected of tracking theirs. When entering or =
exiting the compound, all staff should mentally note down what they see, an=
d report any recurrence.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* Staff should report, in particular, a=
ny individuals seen to take photographs, videos, or notes.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /=
><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* NGOs should furthermore remind staff =
of what constitutes sensitive information that must not be shared with anyo=
ne outside the organisation, including names of staff, movement patterns, v=
ehicle details, and any compound or movement security protocols. A dedicate=
d training with staff on this matter is recommended.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div=
>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* NGOs should also remind staff to repo=
rt to their managers if under external pressure to disclose sensitive infor=
mation, or if they have already disclosed it, assuring them that the NGO wi=
ll do the utmost to protect them.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Nonetheless, NGOs are reminded that mor=
e sophisticated forms of surveillance will be harder to detect - potential =
abductors may make use of different vehicles, for example, or have differen=
t people conduct surveillance on different days.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /><br /></d=
iv>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Movement protocols and limiting vulnera=
bility in transit:<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* NGOs should seek to avoid routine, as=
 much as possible. Varying office hours and working outside the office (e.g=
. from home), as feasible and in balance with operational impacts, is recom=
mended for expatriate staff who live in a different location from the offic=
e. Similarly, NGO staff are strongly encouraged to vary days of the week an=
d times of day for all movements.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* NGO staff are further encouraged to t=
ravel with several people in the vehicle. While COVID-19-related mitigation=
 measures remain essential and should be followed, two or three people in a=
ddition to the driver inside the vehicle may make potential abductors deem =
those in the vehicle to be a harder target. If available, bringing a guard =
or other Afghan staff member along, particularly at night, may also deter p=
otential abductors.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* When returning to their compound, NGO=
 staff members are advised to call ahead, for the guards to be prepared to =
open the gates, so as to shorten the waiting time in front of the compound.=
&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">* When visiting another compound, NGO s=
taff are similarly advised to call ahead and ask the host to notify the gua=
rds to open the door as soon as the NGO staff member has arrived. NGOs are =
further encouraged to allow expatriate staff to enter the compound (in an a=
irlock if it exists) for ID and bag check, rather than performing these che=
cks outside.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">For additional risk mitigation measures=
 and analysis regarding expatriate abductions in Kabul City, NGOs can consu=
lt the INSO Special Report on Expatriate Abduction, published in June 2017,=
 which can be shared on request.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><br /></di=
v>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org&nbsp;</a></div>
</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/12102021/#002-U2								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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