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Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2021 10:42:26 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <4aHAZq6VTV6BM5CK4xyS1g@geopod-ismtpd-2-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: IED Attack Patterns
 in Kabul City
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, Multiple Areas</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								IED Attack Patterns in Kabul City								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								11/12/2021 15:00								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">Over the past four-week period, Kabul rec=
orded a total of 12 IED attacks across PD 2, 3, 4, 5, and 13, showing a not=
able concentration on western Kabul City. These attacks resulted in nine fa=
talities and 44 injuries. While the majority of casualties in these attacks=
 have been civilians, the assessed intended targets of the 12 attacks were =
evenly split between IEA forces (six) and civilian entities (six).<br /><br=
 />With nine logged incidents, magnetic IEDs (MIEDs) accounted for the majo=
rity of IED attacks recorded over the past four-week period, alongside thre=
e remote-controlled IEDs (RCIEDs). With the exception of an MIED attack in =
the Saray Shamali area of PD 11 on 17 November, IS-KP affiliated outlets cl=
aimed responsibility for all attacks.<br /><br />Prior to this period of el=
evated IED attacks, both MIEDs and RCIEDs were recorded at a limited freque=
ncy in Kabul, with three MIED and no RCIED attacks recorded between the IEA=
 take-over on 15 August and 10 November. These attacks wounded 14 individua=
ls, with IS-KP affiliates claiming responsibility for one of these incident=
s, the 21 October MIED attack against an electricity pylon in the Qala Mura=
d Baig area of Shakardara District.<br /><br />While OAGs also conducted th=
ree other IED attacks over this time period&mdash;one complex attack and tw=
o BBIED attacks&mdash;due to the fundamental differences in terms of impact=
, means, targets, and involved resources, they are excluded in this count a=
nd the analysis offered below.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The outlined shifts in patterns of MIED a=
nd RCIED attacks in Kabul suggest an increase in the overall risk posed by =
these incidents. Since 13 November, the time span between IED attacks has c=
onsistently remained between a minimum of two and a maximum of five days. T=
his indicates that OAGs have been able to maintain a high frequency of IED =
attacks over an extended period of time.<br /><br />Furthermore, the near-s=
imultaneous IED attacks recorded on 17 November and 10 December underline t=
hat OAGs retain the ability to closely coordinate and execute multiple IED =
attacks at the same time. By coordinating low-to-medium impact attacks, OAG=
s can create an inflated perception of the actual extent of their operation=
al presence and capabilities, while also capitalising on the resultant conf=
usion to limit the risk to the OAG members emplacing or initiating the IEDs=
 in these attacks.<br /><br />Despite the notable tempo of recurring attack=
s over the past four weeks, it is assessed that this trend is not the resul=
t of strengthened OAG capabilities, but rather has been largely enabled by =
a combination of other factors in the broader operating environment.<br /><=
br />Firstly, the general reduction in the visible footprint of security fo=
rces following the IEA take-over continues to allow additional operational =
spaces for OAGs in the province. Fewer checkpoints, patrols, and movement r=
estrictions in the form of barriers allows for increased freedom of movemen=
t for threat actors, enabling them to plan and conduct attacks with little =
risk of interception by security forces. This reduction is primarily the re=
sult of authorities having significantly reduced resources at their disposa=
l, in addition to a public narrative of improved security conditions in the=
 aftermath of 15 August, which has seen the deliberate dismantling of vario=
us physical security features in the city.<br /><br />Secondly, proactive o=
perations against OAGs specialising in IED attacks&mdash;in particular cell=
s claiming affiliation with IS-KP&mdash;have remained limited in their scop=
e, frequency, and impact on OAG capabilities. Since 15 August, 37 operation=
s targeting suspected OAG members have been conducted across Kabul Province=
, resulting in 85 arrests, 12 fatalities, and five injuries to suspects.<br=
 /><br />However, more than half (19) of these operations specifically targ=
eted suspected NRF affiliates, who have thus far not demonstrated the capab=
ility to conduct IED attacks in the province and maintain an overall highly=
 limited operational presence in Kabul. This distribution of search operati=
ons against OAGs also continued over the past four-week period of intensifi=
ed IED attacks, which saw a total of five operations targeting OAGs, two of=
 which targeted suspected NRF affiliates.<br /><br />Finally, despite the e=
nd of the broader conflict on 15 August, logistical support networks specia=
lising in the provision of IED components during the previous conflict are =
believed to have remained largely intact, sustained by both financially-mot=
ivated OCGs and politically-motivated OAGs. While the supply of explosive m=
aterials used to construct IEDs is unlikely to have substantially decreased=
 follwing 15 August, the decrease in demand may have further facilitated th=
e acquisition of IED components for OAGs currently operating in the city. W=
hile OAGs may have also had access to previous stockpiles of explosive mate=
rials, the continued, frequent use of IEDs over the past four months makes =
a sole reliance on stores accumulated before 15 August unlikely.<br /><br /=
>Based on these underlying conditions of the operating environment in the p=
rovince, a continuation of similar RCIED and MIED attacks is anticipated ov=
er the next three months. Without notable shifts in these enabling conditio=
ns, the current frequency and tempo of IED-based attacks is unlikely to sub=
stantially decrease. However, authorities are expected to intensify their p=
roactive operations in response to the widely-publicised attacks in the cap=
ital, in particular following the latest coordinated attacks on 10 December=
.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the established OAG target set for IED attacks is e=
xpected to remain largely unchanged, focusing on IEA forces as well as civi=
lian members of religious and ethnic minorities, in particular the Shia and=
 Hazara communities. Vehicles associated with either of these groups remain=
 the most likely target, as almost all IED attacks recorded since 15 August=
 have impacted on vehicles. However, the possibility of RCIEDs being used a=
gainst stationary targets&mdash;such as checkpoints, police stations, marke=
ts, and mosques&mdash;must also be considered.<br /><br />Although a delibe=
rate attack against NGO staff is currently assessed to be highly unlikely b=
ased on this established target set, collateral exposure to IEDs while in t=
ransit and in public spaces poses a distinct security risk, for which NGO s=
ecurity focal points should maintain continued awareness.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">Despite a recent focus on PDs in western =
Kabul, NGOs are advised to remain aware of the mobile nature of OAGs and th=
e continued risk of exposure to IEDs in other areas of the city, as attacks=
 against common targets may also take place outside of established hotspots=
 with no prior indication.<br /><br />Where possible, NGOs are advised to m=
aintain a safe distance of at least six vehicle lengths between their vehic=
les and marked IEA vehicles when moving throughout the city.<br /><br />NGO=
s should further seek to avoid parking outside or beside high-profile IEA b=
uildings or vehicles. Where this is unavoidable, staff are advised to limit=
 time spent at the location.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/11122021/#001								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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