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Envelope-to: faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo
Delivery-date: Fri, 05 Nov 2021 08:51:14 -0400
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Date: Fri, 05 Nov 2021 12:50:32 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <xQTQEP8MRxWu1ToQR9slaQ@geopod-ismtpd-6-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= NORTHEAST : Unknown Actors
 Targeting the IEA
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kunduz Province, E=
mam Saheb District, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/WeeMyntvQA6hfZoM8"><span=
 style=3D"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Robot=
o, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">Q=
urghan Tapa</span></a>&nbsp;Area</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Unknown Actors Targeting the IEA								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								29/10/2021 17:30								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 30 October, an unidentified =
unknown armed individual shot and killed two IEA members with SAF and took =
their weapons on a secondary road in the Qurghan Tapa area of Emam Saheb Di=
strict. <br /><br />On 21 October, an MIED attached to a bicycle parked nex=
t to the Bandar-e Kabul bus stop detonated, shortly after an IEA vehicle cr=
ossed. In a similar incident, on 18 October, an IED detonated on a secondar=
y road when an IEA senior civil servant (chief of the local department for =
economy) crossed through the area. <br /><br />On 13 October, an IED emplac=
ed in the private residence of an IEA mid-level commander detonated. The mi=
d-level commander and another IEA member were killed, and one civilian was =
wounded. The building was partially damaged.<br /><br />The actors behind t=
hese incidents remain unknown, and their motives could not be established.<=
/div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Since 15 August, the IEA member=
s have been targeted by unknown actors on 15 occasions, in nine shootings a=
nd six IED attacks, resulting in 21 IEA members killed and ten others wound=
ed, in the Northeastern Region.<br /><br />It is unlikely that the attacks =
were authored by IS-KP or groups operating under the IS-KP name. The group =
regularly claims its successful operations through known IS-KP channels. De=
spite the perceived high propaganda value of the targets hit in the above-m=
entioned incidents, no claims of authorship were made on known IS-KP channe=
ls. <br /><br />Considering that historically, IEA's acceptance levels with=
in the local population have been low, it is likely that the attacks have b=
een carried out by local individuals or OAGs that can oppose the IEA only t=
hrough asymmetrical attacks. There is no indication of any local opposition=
, individual or OAG, that has the resources and capacity to challenge the I=
EA's territorial control. <br /><br />The general location of the incidents=
 seems to confirm local reports concerning an urban-focused IEA security fo=
otprint. A total of 14 incidents were recorded in Kunduz District, out of w=
hich only three were in the provincial capital. One other incident was reco=
rded in the Ishkamish District, in Takhar Province.&nbsp;<br /><br />In res=
ponse to the perception of a generally increased number of attacks in the N=
ortheastern Region, IEA officials announced the recruitment of additional f=
ighters in Badakhshan Province in late September and in Kunduz and Takhar p=
rovinces in the first fortnight of October. These units are meant to increa=
se the general security and rebuff eventual attacks across the provinces. <=
br /><br />Further attacks against the IEA are likely in the Northeastern R=
egion in the coming weeks and months. Individuals or OAGs opposing the new =
administration and potentially seeking to destabilise it are likely to take=
 advantage of the challenges generated by the collapsing Afghan economy and=
 IEA's arguably limited capability to transition from OAG to governance and=
 target the newly established security apparatus.<br /><br />The removal of=
 physical protection and general reduction in the visible footprint of secu=
rity forces in the rural areas offer individuals and OAG members more explo=
itable access to IEA government officials and security personnel and facili=
ties than under the former GOA, offering higher chances of a successful att=
ack against military and government targets. Additionally, IEA's limited pr=
esence on the main roads in the region has the potential of increasing the =
freedom of movement of such actors.<br /><br />The rise in the number of at=
tacks that target IEA members has resulted in a wave of targeted search and=
 seizure operations in the Northeastern Region. IEA's law enforcement opera=
tions - recorded between 15 August and 04 November - resulted in 34 arrests=
 of a total of 83 individuals. The most common charges included petty crime=
s (52% with 41 individuals arrested), drug trafficking (14% with 19 individ=
uals arrested), and lastly, participation in OAG activity (34% with 13 indi=
viduals arrested, including alleged IS-KP members).<br /><br />With an incr=
ease in the number of attacks observed in the second half of October, likel=
y to continue in November, searching operations are expected to continue at=
 a high pace. In several instances, IEA stated that individuals arrested du=
ring these raids were linked to IS-KP, allegations difficult to independent=
ly verify. As demonstrated in previous incidents, the actors behind the att=
acks have shown a willingness to target both security and local governance =
IEA members. However, NGO staff has not been impacted or targeted by the at=
tacks. Additionally, there are no indications that future attacks would tar=
get NGOs.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are not presumed to be und=
er significant threat from local actors targeting the IEA at this time. In =
any case, the most broadly effective threat mitigation methods remain the s=
ame regardless of who the perceived aggressors are.<br /><br />NGO staff sh=
ould avoid spending significant periods of time near high-profile areas tha=
t constitute likely targets for the attacks, including IEA checkpoints, pat=
rols, and private residences.<br /><br />NGO staff are further advised to k=
eep a six-seven car-length distance to IEA vehicles and convoys in traffic,=
 when possible, and limit time spent in IEA checkpoints<br /><br />NGOs are=
 advised to maintain close contact with local sources and interlocutors in =
all areas where programming occurs. NGOs should always follow basic safety =
and security protocols when conducting movements by road, including checkin=
g road conditions before travel, conducting movements during daylight hours=
, and ensuring offices and guesthouses have appropriate physical security m=
easures in place.<br /><br />NGOs in Kunduz Province are advised to maintai=
n previously established security protocols, despite the end of countrywide=
 hostilities in mid-August. These protocols should include limiting exposur=
e of staff members to security and government personnel, avoiding proximity=
 to potential targets, and conducting security drills on a regular basis.</=
div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdoun=
i<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngos=
afety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/05112021/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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