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Date: Thu, 04 Nov 2021 11:35:50 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <S4OoFriuRHarwhgtAIws4g@geopod-ismtpd-1-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: BBIED Attacks in
 Kabul
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
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EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, Multiple Areas</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								BBIED Attacks in Kabul								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								04/11/2021 16:00								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The 02 November complex attack targeting =
the Sardar Dawood Khan Military Hospital in PD 10 of Kabul City brings the =
total number of BBIED attacks recorded in Kabul to date to 108, while three=
 BBIEDs have been recorded in the capital since 15 August. The following st=
atistics exclude the use of other person-operated IEDs, such as SVBIEDs.<br=
 /><br />BBIED attacks&mdash;recorded between 28 January 2011 and 02 Novemb=
er 2021 and excluding other person-operated IEDs, such as SVBIEDs&mdash;res=
ulted in a total of 1,377 fatalities, while injuring 2,636 other individual=
s. The most commonly targeted entities included government forces (46%), fo=
llowed by civilian members of the general public (22%) and civilian governm=
ent employees (20%).<br /><br />After a notable spike in the number of BBIE=
D attacks in Q1 and Q2 of 2018, the frequency fell again over the course of=
 2019 and 2020. NGO entities were directly impacted by BBIED attacks on at =
least seven occasions, however, NGO staff and NGO affiliated persons are as=
sessed to have been affected significantly more often by these attacks due =
to their largely indiscriminate nature.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The frequency of BBIED attacks has increa=
sed since the IEA takeover of power on 15 August, with three of BBIED attac=
ks having taken place over the course of the past nine weeks.<br /><br />Th=
ese three BBIEDs attacked comparably accessible targets, namely a mosque, a=
nd a (military) hospital. In the case of the August 2021 Abbey Gate attack,=
 accessibility had been increased by the significant crowd and general diso=
rder of the outer perimeter during the IMF evacuation efforts that were ong=
oing at the time.<br /><br />While OAGs have offered various ideological ju=
stifications in their aftermath, inflicting mass casualties is assessed to =
have been the primary goal of each BBIED attack since 15 August. In doing s=
o, OAGs can project more military capabilities than they actually possess, =
demonstrate continued relevance, and maximise domestic pressure on the auth=
orities as well as international media attention.<br /><br />On a tactical =
level, unverified reports have alleged that during the 02 November attack, =
multiple assailants deployed BBIEDs, which would indicate the use of more s=
ubstantial resources than the other two BBIEDs recorded since 15 August. Wh=
ile this remains unverified, OAGs commonly use multiple BBIEDs during compl=
ex attacks in order to further increase its impact in terms of casualties a=
nd media attention.<br /><br />Despite the shortened time span between BBIE=
D attacks, a substantial increase in OAGs&rsquo; overall capabilities in Ka=
bul is not indicated at the current time. The operating environment experie=
nced a fundamental shift following the IEA takeover on 15 August, with a re=
organisation and reduction of the security apparatus of the incumbent gover=
nment. Security forces&rsquo; ability to counter OAGs has been significantl=
y impaired by the removal of physical barriers, reduction of patrols and ch=
eckpoints, as well as the loss of external intelligence capabilities throug=
h deployed IMF personnel.<br /><br />This reduction is assessed to have all=
owed for increased freedom of movement and additional operational spaces fo=
r OAGs in general, thereby facilitating high-impact attacks. Thus, while ca=
pabilities have remained largely unaltered, changes in the encompassing ope=
rating environment have presented existing OAG cells with new, more accessi=
ble targets of opportunity.<br /><br />In addition, claims of authorship ov=
er these incidents, generally propagated through social media channels, in =
most cases form the sole basis for establishing the involvement of a specif=
ic OAG and should be critically examined. The phrasing and timing of these =
claims generally serve to falsely imply a level of direct operational invol=
vement and planning in the attacks by senior OAG officials. This has repeat=
edly been disproven by accounts of arrested members of OAG cells, who gener=
ally operate in a virtually autonomous manner in their respective areas.<br=
 /><br />Following the 03 October BBIED attack at the Eid Gah Mosque, the I=
EA conducted a series of nine search operations against suspected IS-KP aff=
iliates and their support network in Kabul, Bagrami, Shinwari, Paghman, and=
 Shakardara districts over the following week, leading to the arrest of 33 =
suspects as well as 12 fatalities. The operations marked the first concerte=
d large-scale effort against IS-KP affiliates in Kabul since the IEA takeov=
er on 15 August.<br /><br />As such, rather than increased capabilities of =
OAGs, the currently elevated frequency of recorded BBIEDs primarily highlig=
hts the authorities&rsquo; reduced counterterrorism capacities, and that th=
eir recent attempts to deteriorate the ability of OAGs to conduct high-impa=
ct attacks have been ineffective. It also indicates that the decentralised =
OAG cells in Kabul are resilient towards interception and that they continu=
e to maintain access to explosive materials, most likely through previously=
 acquired stockpiles rather than more recent procurement.<br /><br />While =
further BBIED attacks remain likely under the current operating environment=
, it is unclear whether OAGs can maintain the current frequency of approxim=
ately one high-impact attack per month observed since 15 August. Based on t=
he analysis of OAG and IEA capabilities, an increase in the current frequen=
cy or scale of attacks is not indicated. However, established targets for B=
BIED attacks&mdash;in particular Shia mosques and celebrations, educational=
 facilities, and medical facilities&mdash;will continue to face a tangible =
threat going forward.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs in Kabul City are advised to maintai=
n previously established protocols and best practices with regards to staff=
, site, and operational security, despite the end of countrywide hostilitie=
s in mid-August. These protocols should seek to avoid proximity to and limi=
t time spent at common targets for high-impact attacks, maintaining operati=
onal awareness on developing threats emanating from OAGs and other actors, =
and conducting security drills on a regular basis.<br /><br />INSO Central =
will continue to monitor the situation and issue separate updates as and wh=
en appropriate.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/04112021/#001								</div>
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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