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Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2021 13:58:11 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <afAPoQi6RMayxTnjVVTk7A@geopod-ismtpd-5-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= NORTHEAST: Kocha-e Sayed
 Abad Mosque attack and IS-KP in the Northeast Region
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
4; margin: 0 auto; background: #fff; text-align: center; border-collapse: c=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kunduz Province, K=
unduz City, PD 4, <a href=3D"https://www.google.com/search?q=3D36.7278760%2=
C+68.8767849&amp;rlz=3D1C5CHFA_enRO894RO894&amp;oq=3D36.7278760%2C+68.87678=
49&amp;aqs=3Dchrome..69i57.1125j0j7&amp;sourceid=3Dchrome&amp;ie=3DUTF-8">K=
ocha-e Sayed Abad</a> Area</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Threat of IS-KP in the Northeastern Region								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								28/10/2021 18:30								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 08 October, one suicide oper=
ative launched an attack targeting the Friday prayer at the Gozar-e Sayed A=
bad Masjid, a well-known Shia mosque located in the Kocha-e Sayed Abad area=
 of Kunduz City PD 4. The attacker detonated his vest&rsquo;s explosives in=
side the mosque while the prayer was ongoing. At least 46 people were kille=
d in the explosion, and more than 143 were injured.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Later the same day, IS-KP claimed the a=
ttack through known IS-KP channels, circulating supposed pictures of the at=
tacker. The 08 October incident was followed by a similar attack targeting =
Shia worshipers at a mosque in Kandahar City on 15 October, in which at lea=
st 65 people were killed and over 80 wounded.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><span style=3D"font-family: -ap=
ple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantare=
ll, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">Recently, several incidents=
 alleged to be IS-KP related were reported, including the discovery of an I=
S-KP flag in Baghlan-E Jadid District's Fabrika Qand area and an MIED attac=
k in Kunduz City PD 1. However, t</span>he 08 October Gozar-e Sayed Abad mo=
sque attack was the first attack of its type in Kunduz City and the second =
in the Northeastern Region, on INSO record to be claimed on known IS-KP cha=
nnels.<br /><br />With IEA assuming the administration of the country, seve=
ral opposition actors may attempt to resist and potentially benefit from op=
erating under the IS-KP banner. <span style=3D"background-color: #ffffff;">=
At the time of writing, no OAG is known to have the resources and capacity =
to challenge IEA territorial control or pose an existential threat to the I=
EA.</span> However, the IS-KP "brand" carries significant weight nationally=
 and internationally and could be used as a means to an end, by any group o=
r individual, in an attempt to undermine the IEA and ultimately destabilise=
 its structures.<br /><br /><span style=3D"font-family: -apple-system, Blin=
kMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans',=
 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">In the Northeastern Region, despite IEA's h=
eavy footprint in the main urban areas, the group's capacity to secure the =
main roads between provinces has been limited. The removal of conflict-rela=
ted physical security infrastructure, in addition to the limited manpower, =
has the potential of increasing the freedom of movement of opposition OAGs,=
 particularly in remote and geographically challenging areas.</span>
<p class=3D"p1"><br /><span style=3D"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSy=
stemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helv=
etica Neue', sans-serif;">The IEA's current armed force depends on the grou=
p's ability to manage a heterogeneous group of fighters,</span><span style=
=3D"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxy=
gen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">&nbsp;w=
ho now face similar economic challenges as the Afghan civilians, struggling=
 to make ends meet financially. Additionally, in Takhar, Baghlan, and Badak=
hshan provinces, the IEA, historically, did not benefit from popular suppor=
t, even in the Pashtun communities.</span></p>
</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In the absence of a public political ag=
enda or claimed territory, individuals claiming IS-KP affiliation are likel=
y to use the financial incentives as drivers for recruitment. <span style=
=3D"background-color: #ffffff;">In Afghanistan's current economic climate, =
recruitment via pecuniary incentives could be relatively successful.</span>=
 This is particularly the case for the Kunduz Province, where the drought r=
uined the fall harvests. The majority of farmers lost their crops due to a =
lack of irrigation systems, and the price of food increased drastically. <b=
r /><br />The effects of the rapidly deteriorating economy are likely to im=
pact the members of the new de facto administration, mainly their cohesion =
&ndash; on one instance, on 23 October, two groups of IEA members were invo=
lved in a dispute over tax collection rights in Juma Bazar, Chahardara Dist=
rict. In the coming months, financial incentives and not ideological ones a=
re more likely to shift members' allegiance.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Future attacks in line with the IS-KP t=
argeting profile are likely in the Northeastern Region as the group is expe=
cted to attempt to increase its profile in an area with only very limited h=
istorical activity. Due to their perceived propaganda value, Shia gathering=
s and places of worship remain a potential target for such attacks. However=
, high-profile IEA officials, IEA members, checkpoints, and vehicles are ve=
ry likely to remain the prime targets, a trend also observed elsewhere in t=
he country.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In an attempt to exert enhanced control=
 over the Kunduz and Takhar provinces, the local IEA administration announc=
ed the formation of new units in the Kunduz and Taluqan districts. The newl=
y formed units are meant to increase the general security in and around the=
ir respective districts. IEA's perception of an increasing IS-KP threat res=
ulted in an increased number of arrests and the re-occurrence of the <span =
style=3D"background-color: #ffffff;">use of force.</span> In all instances,=
 the new authorities stated the suspects' membership to the IS-KP; however,=
 such claims are difficult to substantiate.<br /><br />In the Northeast Reg=
ion, although several unattributed incidents, with IS-KP resembling modus o=
perandi, involved IEA members, including a mid-level commander and a senior=
 member of the local administration, the attacks claimed by IS-KP so far, t=
argeted civilian targets only. Despite the fact that NGO staff have previou=
sly been targeted by an IS-KP claimed attack in Baghlan Province (See INSO =
REPORT AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/13062021/#001), NGOs are less likely to be a=
t risk due to the potentially-higher propaganda value of IEA targets.</div>=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff is advised to reduce th=
e time spent near high-profile areas that constitute likely targets for ISK=
P attacks, including IEA checkpoints and large public gatherings.<br /><br =
/>NGOs are further advised to keep a six-seven car-length distance to IEA v=
ehicles and convoys in traffic, when possible, and limit time spent in IEA =
checkpoints, as these most likely constitute attractive targets for armed o=
pposition groups.<br /><br />NGOs are advised to maintain close contact wit=
h local sources and interlocutors in all areas where programming occurs. NG=
O staff should always follow basic safety and security protocols when condu=
cting movements by road, including checking road conditions before travel, =
conducting movements during daylight hours, and ensuring offices and guesth=
ouses have appropriate physical security measures in place.&nbsp;</p>						=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Northeast, Eliade Al-Hamdouni</p>
<a title=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org" href=3D"mailto:sa.northe=
ast@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/28102021/#001								</div>
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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