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Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2021 09:07:37 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <vvr4-zMIRXKTViyhunGFQg@geopod-ismtpd-1-1>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= PARWAN/KAPISA: Suspected NRF
 Affiliates Threaten Civilian Residents
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
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; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Parwan Province, J=
abalussaraj &amp; Salang Districts; Kapisa Province, Hisa-e Awal-e Kohestan=
 &amp; Hisa-e Awal-e Kohestan Districts</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Suspected NRF Affiliates Threaten Civilian Residents								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								21/10/2021 13:30								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">In the early morning hours of 20 October,=
 unknown individuals posted threat letters on trees and structures in north=
ern Kapisa and northern Parwan Province, warning residents against cooperat=
ing with IEA forces and the new administration. <br /><br />Residents found=
 to continue their collaboration would be deemed &ldquo;traitors&rdquo; and=
 punished in an unspecified manner. The letters were discovered in multiple=
 locations in the title areas, in relative proximity to the respective DAC =
areas.<br /><br />The letters, written in Dari, are addressed to &ldquo;Mus=
lim compatriots&rdquo; and signed by the respective Parwan and Kapisa chapt=
ers of a group that self-identifies as the &ldquo;Islamic Resistance Front&=
rdquo;. The group claims to be led by &ldquo;Amir Sahib Ahmad Massoud&rdquo=
;, presumably referring to the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, who serves as a s=
enior leader within the Panjshir-based NRF. <br /><br />In the letters, the=
 group states that it had reacted to the presence of IEA &ldquo;aggressors&=
rdquo; and claims to have been betrayed to unspecified Pakistani interests =
by US forces. While it is not further elaborated, this is most likely a ref=
erence to the 2020 Doha Agreement between the US and the IEA, and the subse=
quent withdrawal of all IMF personnel in 2021.<br /><br />The day before, a=
 video was shared by NRF-affiliated social media channels showing a group o=
f armed individuals that self-identified as a new branch of the NRF, which =
announced the start of operations in Kapisa Province. Similar to the threat=
 letters, the individuals in the video threatened that the group would puni=
sh any individuals found to cooperate with the IEA in their area of operati=
ons.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">While they espouse similar rhetoric as NR=
F-affiliated media outputs, the authorship of the letters still remains som=
ewhat unclear. Several smaller details&mdash;such as the explicit reference=
 to a &ldquo;betrayal&rdquo; by US forces&mdash;have thus far not been stre=
ssed in official communications from the NRF. Furthermore, NRF affiliates p=
reviously have not used explicit threats of violence against suspected IEA =
supporters in northern Kapisa and Parwan provinces in the past, which would=
 demonstrate a significant escalation in the strategy of the OAG.<br /><br =
/>The similarities between the rhetoric used in the threat letters and the =
previous video purportedly showing members of a similar NRF-affiliated OAG =
in Kapisa Province could suggest that both threats were issued by the same =
group. However, the minor difference in the name used by the individuals th=
at issued the threat letters&mdash;"Islamic" Resistance Front, as opposed t=
o "National" Resistance Front (NRF)&mdash;raises questions regarding their =
connection to the group that released the video message, as well as the bro=
ader NRF. <br /><br />It also remains unclear to which degree any of the ne=
wly-announced affiliates are connected to or sanctioned by the leadership o=
f the Panjshir-based NRF. To date, no similar explicit threats to civilian =
residents by NRF affiliates have been reported in Panjshir Province.<br /><=
br />At least 15 attacks against IEA targets that have been attributed to s=
uspected NRF members, and four IEA operations against suspected NRF support=
ers have been recorded in northern Kapisa and Parwan Province since 25 Augu=
st. This indicates that OAGs acting under the broader NRF umbrella have alr=
eady maintained operations in the area for an extended period of time prior=
 to the video circulated on 19 October. The four districts where the threat=
 letters were distributed coincide&mdash;Salang, Jabalussaraj, Hisa-e Awal-=
e Kohestan, and Hisa-e Awal-e Kohestan&mdash;coincide with previously-ident=
ified hotspots for NRF activity.<br /><br />It remains unclear whether thes=
e new affiliates are the same groups who have already conducted attacks in =
the two provinces, whether they are a new faction, and whether they maintai=
n any operational ties to the broader Panjshir-based leadership of the NRF.=
 However, for a new, largely autonomous OAG loosely claiming NRF affiliatio=
n only a purely political level, a more severe shift of strategy from asymm=
etric attacks against IEA military targets towards attacks against perceive=
d civilian supporters of the IEA would be more likely than for a more group=
 that is more closely affiliated with the strategy of the Panjshir-based NR=
F.<br /><br />Should more concrete threats against civilian residents in th=
e four affected districts emerge, the likelihood of NGO personnel being ina=
dvertently affected by conflict activity would likely increase. An increasi=
ng inclusion of civilian residents in conflict activity is likely to shift =
the focus of operations by both NRF affiliates and IEA forces further towar=
ds population centres, where NGO personnel and assets may be located.<br />=
<br />In addition, the possibility of NGO staff being deliberately targeted=
 by OAGs cannot be dismissed. Witnessing basic coordination and access nego=
tiation between NGOs and local IEA officials, OAGs that are hostile to the =
IEA, willing to attack civilian targets, and uninformed about the humanitar=
ian nature of NGOs may misconstrue normal NGO activity as direct support to=
 the IEA, rather than the civilian community.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to encourage s=
taff members to confidentially share any threats made against their person =
or their employer in order to situational awareness. NGOs are further encou=
raged to report any potential threats to INSO and other independent organis=
ations, should these be a concern for the broader humanitarian community.<b=
r /><br />NGOs should review their local profile, including with regards to=
 vehicles used and the aspect of their compounds, to avoid being mistaken f=
or an IEA-affiliated entity. To mitigate the risk of collateral damage or c=
asualties, NGOs are advised to review their locations in relation to the pr=
esence of likely targets for attacks, including nearby IEA facilities and l=
ocal government compounds.<br /><br />NGOs are further advised to maintain =
their distance from IEA or high-profile vehicles during movements, and avoi=
d spending extended periods of time near IEA positions and facilities, incl=
uding checkpoints, if possible. If meetings with IEA officials are necessar=
y (such as for coordinating humanitarian responses), NGOs are advised to av=
oid peak hours when IEA officials begin and end the workday.<br /><br />NGO=
 staff should be able to confidently explain the nature of their programmin=
g in any situation, emphasising its neutral, impartial, and independent cha=
racter and of their employer.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><br =
/><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.=
org</a></p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/21102021/#001								</div>
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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