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Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2021 17:47:02 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL, NANGARHAR & KUNAR:
 Possible Heightened Threat of Expatriate Abductions
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
4; margin: 0 auto; background: #fff; text-align: center; border-collapse: c=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul, Nangarhar &=
amp; Kunar Province, Provincewide</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Possible Heightened Threat of Expatriate Abductions								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								12/10/2021 22:15								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">INSO has received information, which it d=
eems credible, regarding a possibly heightened risk of expatriate abduction=
s within Kabul, Nangarhar and Kunar provinces for an indeterminate time per=
iod. <br /><br />Concrete details regarding potential locations, perpetrato=
rs and motives for these abductions are currently largely unclear. While Ka=
bul City itself is assessed to be the primary focal point for this threat, =
related incidents may also take place in population centres in Nangahar and=
 Kunar Province as well as during road travel between these locations.<br /=
><br />Both politically-motivated OAGs and financially-motivated OCGs may c=
urrently be involved in precursory operations, in particular surveillance a=
ttempts of frequented locations and movements of potential targets.<br /><b=
r />The latest threat warning follows shortly after previous advisories iss=
ued by the US and UK governments issued on 11 October warned of imminent th=
reats to hotels in Kabul City. It remains unclear whether both threat warni=
ngs are causally connected.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">While abductions of expatriates have sign=
ificantly dropped in frequency since their last peak in 2015-2016, the inte=
nt of both OAGs and OCGs to conduct abductions is assessed to have remained=
 unchanged during this time period. However, since 15 August, overall secur=
ity provisions in the form of barriers, patrols, and vehicle checkpoints ha=
ve visibly reduced in population centres, opening up potential operational =
spaces for threat actors.<br /><br />Incentive structures for both OAGs and=
 OCGs specialising in abductions have also been significantly affected by t=
he changed operating environment. OAGs may seek to conduct high-profile abd=
uctions of expatriates as a means to gain international media attention. By=
 targeting expatriates, OAGs may also seek to highlight shortcomings in the=
 capabilities of the incumbent administration and underline their primacy o=
ver rival groups. <br /><br />At the current time, IS-KP affiliated cells a=
re assessed to be the OAGs most capable of conducting expatriate abductions=
 in areas where they have an established foothold, such as Kabul, Kunar and=
 Nangarhar provinces. However, other OAGs with similarly proven capabilitie=
s, intent and motives also continue to operate in Afghanistan and the broad=
er region.<br /><br />OCGs previously focused on more risk-averse operation=
s may assess a need to shift towards more high-risk, high-reward abductions=
 for ransom as a result of the overall deterioration of economic conditions=
. While IEA forces have conducted a total of 68 operations targeting crimin=
al elements in Kabul Province since 15 August, only nine targeted OCGs, ins=
tead of opportunistic criminals. Meanwhile, OCGs executed at least five abd=
uctions targeting Afghan nationals over this time period across the provinc=
e.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to exercise additional c=
aution in the period to come and to reduce unnecessary movements as possibl=
e in the indication provinces, at least until more information is available=
. <br /><br />In addition, NGOs are advised to review, retrain, and strictl=
y enforce existing protocols for movement and counter-surveillance with all=
 staff. These should include, but not necessarily be limited to, the follow=
ing:&nbsp;<br /><br />Counter-surveillance:<br /><br />* Guards should moni=
tor CCTV cameras, if they exist, at all times, and report any suspicious ac=
tivity, such as an individual standing in front of the compound for no appa=
rent reason, or a vehicle with persons inside that is seen parked in front =
of the compound for several days in a row. If they feel comfortable doing s=
o, guards can engage the individual(s), as this may deter further surveilla=
nce.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br /><br />* When CCTV cameras do not exist, NGO guards sh=
ould be encouraged to exit the compound at irregular intervals, and particu=
larly around the times when expatriate staff are moving, and monitor the su=
rroundings, similarly noting down, reporting, and, if feasible, engaging, a=
ny suspicious individual(s).&nbsp;<br /><br />* NGO guards should engage in=
 frequent conversations and build good relations and trust with neighbours,=
 as they can also serve as a source of information on unusual developments =
or movements.&nbsp;<br /><br />* All staff, while in transit, should mainta=
in situational awareness (avoid sleeping or using the phone unnecessarily) =
and report any vehicle suspected of tracking theirs. When entering or exiti=
ng the compound, all staff should mentally note down what they see, and rep=
ort any recurrence.&nbsp;<br /><br />* Staff should report, in particular, =
any individuals seen to take photographs, videos, or notes.&nbsp;&nbsp;<br =
/><br />* NGOs should furthermore remind staff of what constitutes sensitiv=
e information that must not be shared with anyone outside the organisation,=
 including names of staff, movement patterns, vehicle details, and any comp=
ound or movement security protocols. A dedicated training with staff on thi=
s matter is recommended.&nbsp;<br /><br />* NGOs should also remind staff t=
o report to their managers if under external pressure to disclose sensitive=
 information, or if they have already disclosed it, assuring them that the =
NGO will do the utmost to protect them.&nbsp;<br /><br />Nonetheless, NGOs =
are reminded that more sophisticated forms of surveillance will be harder t=
o detect - potential abductors may make use of different vehicles, for exam=
ple, or have different people conduct surveillance on different days.&nbsp;=
&nbsp;<br /><br /><br />Movement protocols and limiting vulnerability in tr=
ansit:<br /><br />* NGOs should seek to avoid routine, as much as possible.=
 Varying office hours and working outside the office (e.g. from home), as f=
easible and in balance with operational impacts, is recommended for expatri=
ate staff who live in a different location from the office. Similarly, NGO =
staff are strongly encouraged to vary days of the week and times of day for=
 all movements.&nbsp;<br /><br />* NGO staff are further encouraged to trav=
el with several people in the vehicle. While COVID-19-related mitigation me=
asures remain essential and should be followed, two or three people in addi=
tion to the driver inside the vehicle may make potential abductors deem tho=
se in the vehicle to be a harder target. If available, bringing a guard or =
other Afghan staff member along, particularly at night, may also deter pote=
ntial abductors.&nbsp;<br /><br />* When returning to their compound, NGO s=
taff members are advised to call ahead, for the guards to be prepared to op=
en the gates, so as to shorten the waiting time in front of the compound.&n=
bsp;<br /><br />* When visiting another compound, NGO staff are similarly a=
dvised to call ahead and ask the host to notify the guards to open the door=
 as soon as the NGO staff member has arrived. NGOs are further encouraged t=
o allow expatriate staff to enter the compound (in an airlock if it exists)=
 for ID and bag check, rather than performing these checks outside.&nbsp;<b=
r /><br /><br /><br />For additional risk mitigation measures and analysis =
regarding expatriate abductions in Kabul City, NGOs can consult the INSO Sp=
ecial Report on Expatriate Abduction, published in June 2017, which can be =
shared on request.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/12102021/#002								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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