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Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2021 17:37:32 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <vERT86STR42dB6ZF_ligFQ@geopod-ismtpd-5-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: IEA Operations
 Targeting Suspected IS-KP Affiliates
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Sh=
akardara District, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/v1SFaXGEkpLTRw4u6">Karaiz=
 Mir</a> Area; Kabul City, PD 5, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/ZFFEXs72isy=
xysL76">Company</a> Area</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								IEA Operations Targeting Suspected IS-KP Affiliates								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								05/10/2021 22:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">IEA forces conducted two separate operati=
ons targeting suspected OAG members affiliated with IS-KP in Kabul Province=
 over the course of eight hours on 03 and 04 October.<br /><br />On 03 Octo=
ber at approximately 2100 hrs, IEA forces conducted an operation against a =
suspected safe house of OAG members on a secondary road in the <a href=3D"h=
ttps://goo.gl/maps/v1SFaXGEkpLTRw4u6">Karaiz Mir</a> area of Shakardara Dis=
trict. During the operation, extended armed clashes erupted between IEA for=
ces and armed individuals, who exchanged SAF and heavy weapons fire.<br /><=
br />The clashes resulted in three fatalities among the suspected OAG membe=
rs and two among the IEA, while the targeted residence and adjacent buildin=
gs reportedly sustained structural damages. Following the incident, IEA for=
ces furthermore arrested four other individuals suspected of having links w=
ith IS-KP in the area.<br /><br />At approximately 0500 hrs the following d=
ay, IEA forces conducted a second operation targeting a private residence i=
n the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/ZFFEXs72isyxysL76">Company</a> area of=
 PD 5 in western Kabul City. A total of 11 suspected OAG members alleged to=
 be IS-KP affiliates were arrested at the scene during the operation.<br />=
<br />The two operations closely followed a BBIED attack outside the <a hre=
f=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/oVZx5cxoQSduWdyN6">Eid Gah Mosque</a> in PD 1 at a=
pproximately 1530 hrs on 03 October, which killed at least eight individual=
s and injured 20 others. On 04 October, IS-KP claimed responsibility for th=
e attack in a standard online statement.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">The two IEA operations are assessed to ha=
ve been a direct response to the 03 October BBIED attack in PD 1, which mar=
ked the first high-profile attack conducted in Kabul City since the BBIED a=
ttack on an HKIA gate in PD 15 on 26 August. <br /><br />The coordinated IE=
A operations on 03 and 04 October are assessed to be an effort to dismantle=
 the IS-KP attack cells active in Kabul City, rather than being limited to =
mitigating reputational damage from the 03 October attack by demonstrating =
the capabilities to disrupt threat actors&rsquo; operations in the capital.=
 Nonetheless, IEA officials have also publicly stressed the success of thes=
e operations in their aftermath, likely in a bid to improve their public pe=
rception to both domestic and foreign audiences.<br /><br />The 03 October =
BBIED attack demonstrated the intent of IS-KP cells in Kabul to target IEA =
members and facilities using the same tactics as they previously did agains=
t GOA and civilian targets. This intent and targeting preferences also reso=
nate with the OAG's recently escalated campaign against IEA forces in the e=
astern provinces.<br /><br />IEA facilities and personnel will likely prese=
nt a more attractive target for the IS-KP cells in Kabul than any civilian =
target in the near term. The removal of physical defences and the general r=
eduction in the visible footprint of security forces in the capital offers =
OAG members more exploitable access to government officials and security pe=
rsonnel and facilities than under the former GOA, offering higher chances o=
f a successful attack against military and government targets and reducing =
the value of civilian ones as being the best available alternative.</p>
<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">That said, attacking major political, rel=
igious, or other social events can also present IS-KP with an opportunity t=
o damage the IEA's public perception as a capable and committed counterterr=
orism actor, which is likely to generate similar negative global media atte=
ntion.<br /><br />IS-KP remains a major threat source, albeit irregular, in=
 the current threat environment in Kabul, with some of the autonomous cells=
 perpetrating attacks based on their operational cycles resulting in appare=
ntly random attacks but others having the capability to carry out attacks t=
imed with specific events, as the 26 August attack at HKIA demonstrated. Th=
e degree to which activities of these cells in the capital province are dir=
ected by an IS-KP leadership is likely to be very limited, if such a direct=
ion is at all present in the first place, despite frequent claims of an exi=
sting direct operational link coming from both the IS-KP and the IEA securi=
ty officials.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs in Kabul City are advised to=
 maintain previously established security protocols, despite the end of cou=
ntrywide hostilities in mid-August. These protocols should include limiting=
 exposure of staff members to security and government personnel, avoiding p=
roximity to potential targets, and conducting security drills on a regular =
basis.<br /><br />IEA operations targeting IS-KP cells in Kabul have the po=
tential to extend beyond direct suspected members and feature broader count=
erterrorism measures. NGOs should anticipate larger cordon-and-search opera=
tions, neighbourhood sweeps, and intensified controls at vehicle checkpoint=
s if IS-KP activity escalates.</p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/05102021/#002								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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