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Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2021 05:32:21 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <fdJPuj_lT1y3HKTuFmLarQ@geopod-ismtpd-4-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJMgS0FCVUw6IE1hcnR5cnPigJk=?= Day
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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				=09
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, Multiple Locations; Panjshir Province, Multiple Locations</div>		=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								Martyrs=E2=80=99 Day								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								09/09/2021 08:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 09 September, the twentieth anniversar=
y of the death of Ahmad Shah Massoud will be commemorated on Martyrs' Day. =
The occasion of Martyrs&rsquo; Day has previously been marked with a public=
 holiday and official ceremonies and festivities, organised by both governm=
ent officials and civil society organisations in different locations within=
 Kabul City. Further events commemorating Martyrs&rsquo; Day have also hist=
orically taken place in other population centres.<br /><br />In previous ye=
ars, official events in Kabul have centred on <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/map=
s/cqszP22cJHzmHTRs7">Massoud Square</a>, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/Svk=
MMuGXg8MaW1pC8">Wazir Akhbar Khan Hill</a>, the grave of Marshal Fahim in&n=
bsp;<a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/4QzuW4hUBXZUz9JJ8">Sarai Shamali</a> and=
 the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/8M8VHgD9BameGwYA6">Loya Jirga Tent</a>,=
 while private and community-organised events usually involved convoys of p=
rivate vehicles moving throughout the city. Participants in these convoys a=
re oftentimes armed, and participate in celebratory SAF.<br /><br />At the =
time of writing, no information has been received on whether similar Martyr=
s&rsquo; Day events will be organised by the IEA administration or communit=
ies in Kabul or beyond, and whether a public holiday will be observed.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
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<p style=3D"text-align: justify;">Following the change in government on 15 =
August, a reiteration of similar festivities for Martyrs' Day is currently =
assessed to be unlikely due to the currently elevated tensions within the p=
rimary stronghold of supporters of Ahmad Shah Massoud in Panjshir Province.=
<br /><br />With the primary focus of the IEA resting on preparing the form=
ulation of its government cabinet and its inaugural meeting, it is currentl=
y unclear whether community-based or privately-organised events to commemor=
ate Martyrs&rsquo; Day will be allowed to take place, or whether celebratio=
ns will be banned by the IEA. However, in addition to the ongoing conflict =
in Panjshir Province, the recent increase in incidents of civil unrest with=
in Kabul further decrease the likelihood of large public Martyrs&rsquo; Day=
 gatherings being authorised in the capital. <br /><br />In response to the=
 recent string of protests, the IEA have officially banned all unauthorised=
 gatherings. Despite this ban, supporters of Ahmad Shah Massoud have called=
 for gatherings to commemorate Martyrs' Day to go ahead on 09 September. In=
 case such gatherings materialise, a heavily-reinforced, visible presence o=
f IEA members is anticipated in public spaces, especially in areas commonly=
 associated with the yearly event, such as Massoud Square and the Sarai-e S=
hamali Cemetery.<br /><br />Escalations of violence in the form of warning =
SAF fired by IEA members attempting to disperse crowds as well as isolated =
clashes with gathered individuals are anticipated in case of unauthorised e=
vents taking place, in particular, if no express ban on these gatherings is=
 issued. Instead, in the absence of official communications on the matter, =
events may only be implicitly forbidden to take place, in order to avoid ge=
nerating further public animosity. Furthermore, individual commanders on th=
e district or neighbourhood level may independently decide to intervene in =
local gatherings. Sporadic celebratory SAF to mark Martyrs' Day is anticipa=
ted to occur within Kabul Province irrespective of whether or not festiviti=
es are officially endorsed by the IEA, with IEA members likely to respond f=
orcefully to any such incidents, following recent public statements condemn=
ing the practice issued by the IEA leadership.<br /><br />In addition to th=
e possibility of civil unrest, Martyrs&rsquo; Day also presents a renewed o=
pportunity for IS-KP cells in Kabul to conduct high-profile attacks. Simila=
r to the 26 August BBIED attack at Kabul Airport, the group may seek to cap=
italise on both the dispersed IEA resources towards maintaining public orde=
r and the continued elevated international media attention. Community-centr=
ed Martyrs&rsquo; Day celebrations have been sporadically targeted by OAG m=
embers in the past, most recently in 2019.<br /><br />Outside of Kabul, the=
 Martyrs' Day celebrations are likely to lead to overall increased levels o=
f activity within Panjshir Province, due to its native connection to Ahmad =
Shah Massoud. Given the IEA's recent military successes against the anti-IE=
A militia, the latter will likely attempt to utilise the increased public f=
ocus on the Panjshir Valley, and the historical significance of Martyrs' Da=
y, to signal the continuation of their armed activities while soliciting fu=
rther support from domestic and foreign sources. As such, in the context of=
 the ongoing hostilities, an escalation of armed attacks on positions recen=
tly captured by the IEA and IEA convoys in Bazarak, Khenj, Paryan, and Onab=
a Anawa districts remains highly likely over the course of Martyrs' Day. <b=
r /><br />While the remaining capabilities of the anti-IEA militias in the =
province are largely unclear after the latest territorial gains made by the=
 IEA (see AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/03092021/#002-U2), the militias are assesse=
d to remain capable of launching asymmetrical attacks on IEA forces, both a=
long the Panjshir River and in secondary valleys.</p>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to suspend non=
-essential movements within Kabul City, starting on the afternoon of 08 Sep=
tember, and avoid abovementioned areas that have historically been associat=
ed with Martyrs' Day celebrations. For necessary movements, it is recommend=
ed to allow ample time for travel and avoid areas immediately surrounding t=
he sites listed above and other common assembly points for public gathering=
s. In addition, when travelling throughout Kabul City, NGO staff should mai=
ntain, where possible, a safe distance from celebratory convoys.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />NGOs are also advised to avoid th=
e abovementioned districts in Panjshir Province in the short term due to th=
e possibility of further clashes within the next 24-48 hours, as frontlines=
 between IEA members and anti-IEA militias may continue to shift.<br /><br =
/></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Furthermore, NGO staff members are advi=
sed to avoid large gatherings, and to choose lower-profile areas to commemo=
rate Martyrs' Day, if authorisation to do so is granted by IEA officials.<b=
r /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Should celebratory fire take place clos=
e to their locations, NGO staff are advised to stay indoors and clear of wi=
ndows. NGO staff are also strongly encouraged to avoid participating in cel=
ebratory firing.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/08092021/#001								</div>
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										=09
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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