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Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2021 18:01:45 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <aKrDtULcR_mY1eRCn1frCQ@geopod-ismtpd-2-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - PANJSHIR: Shift in Territorial Control
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Panjshir Province,=
 <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/R2ZSvmXEQFsSfXSy9">Paryan</a> DAC and&nbsp;=
<a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/HUYGVDenbTagxZ4d7">Shutul</a> DAC</div>					=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Shift in Territorial Control 								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								03/09/2021 21:30								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IEA members captured Paryan DAC=
 and Shutul DAC, after sections of anti-IEA militia forces from the area su=
rrendered to the IEA, while the remaining sections withdrew towards Bazarak=
 District. IEA members are stated to be in control of both districts at the=
 time of writing.<br /><br />IEA members are reportedly preparing for a fur=
ther advance on anti-IEA militia positions in <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/map=
s/TFq7jhsvzvYm5qPq8">Bazarak</a> DAC at an unconfirmed later date.</div>			=
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The capture of Paryan and Shutu=
l districts came after a concentration of IEA members in multiple areas adj=
acent to the Panjshir Valley was reported over the past two weeks. The main=
 flash points for ensuing armed clashes with anti-IEA militia members were =
located in Pul-E Hesar and Andarab District, southern Baghlan Province; <a>=
Hisa-E Awal-E Kohestan and Kohband District, northern Kapisa Province; and =
</a><a>Jabalussaraj District, northern Parwan Province. Anti-IEA militia me=
mbers had concurrently raised claims of reciprocal captures of settlements =
and attacks on IEA positions in these areas, which could not be independent=
ly verified.<br /><br />With the IEA strengthening its foothold within the =
Panjshir Valley from both the north, through Paryan District, and the south=
west, through Shutul District, the advance towards the provincial capital B=
azarak, where the leadership of the anti-IEA forces is believed to be locat=
ed, may be initiated in the next 24-48 hours. In addition, resupply operati=
ons to anti-IEA forces have likely been further curtailed by the additional=
 encirclement of their remaining stronghold, which would weaken their posit=
ion. <br /><br />In case of further advances on Bazarak DAC, the likelihood=
 of a surrender of remaining resistance forces to the IEA under a negotiate=
d settlement is assessed to further increase, despite the failure of previo=
us attempts through the mediation of local elders. If negotiations are unsu=
ccessful, clashes are likely to be of a high intensity, given the concentra=
tion of anti-IEA forces and the urbanised character of the provincial capit=
al. With Panjshir Province remaining the last province outside of the IEA c=
ontrol, the IEA is expected to expend additional--and significant-- resourc=
es in case of a prolonged siege of the remaining districts held by anti-IEA=
 militia members.<br /></a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to avoid both =
districts in the short term due to the possibility of further clashes withi=
n the next 24-48 hours, as frontlines between IEA members and anti-IEA mili=
tias continue to shift.<br /><br />NGOs are also advised to engage with loc=
al elders and community representatives once safe to do so, in order to ide=
ntify and resolve any access impediments arising from the exchange of terri=
torial control.<br /><br />INSO Central will monitor the situation and prov=
ide updates by email as required.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">SA Central, Dennis Ikas<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosaf=
ety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a></div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/03092021/#002								</div>
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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