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Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2021 15:15:08 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_MOBILE_SA <sa.mobile@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <p2pfFLXJRfmC6Y83QvQYXA@geopod-ismtpd-2-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - BAGHLAN: Shift in Territorial Control
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Baghlan Province, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/9YNSW=
dhqYFCcdSfn7">Bano</a>, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/QKWDRVWZMBHcyyRv8">D=
eh Saleh</a>, and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/RYKWwJi3eVXMjjxv7">Pul-e H=
esar&nbsp;</a>Districts								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Shift in Territorial Control 								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								20/08/2021 14:45								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 20 August, at approximately =
1200 hrs, a series of armed clashes broke out in the Andarab area of Deh Sa=
leh District. Clashes began in Qasan village during a house search by IEA m=
embers. A firefight began after IEA members attempted to confiscate firearm=
s and ammunition belonging to community members.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">A group of approximately 50 community m=
embers, former militia members, and former ANSF members led by a former Muj=
ahideen commander and a former ANP commander came together into an informal=
 militia and forced the IEA members to withdraw from the village.<br /><br =
/></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The firefight continued as the militia =
group moved into Deh Saleh DAC, pushing IEA members out of the DAC Compound=
. IEA members then withdrew from Pul-e Hesar and Bano districts, moving int=
o Khenjan District at approximately 1700 hrs.&nbsp;<br /><br />The clashes =
killed approximately 25 IEA members, while seven were captured by the milit=
ia group. Two members of the militia group were killed and one wounded.<br =
/><br />At the time of writing, the militia group was in control of the DAC=
s in all three districts, with members present in each of the DAC compounds=
.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IEA members maintained a very l=
imited presence in Bano, Deh Saleh, and Pul-e Hesar districts under the for=
mer GOA. Levels of local support were low and IEA members had little freedo=
m of movement across the three districts. <br /><br />In contrast, well-arm=
ed militias made up of local residents enjoyed a high degree of control in =
the area. While nominally affiliated with the former GOA, militias in the a=
rea retained operational independence due to their strength in numbers and =
their ability to generate revenue: militia commanders were allegedly involv=
ed in smuggling and narcotics trading. <br /><br />Resistance to the IEA ta=
keover of the area is therefore unsurprising considering the strength of th=
e militias and high numbers of armed residents, and the high-value narcotic=
s and smuggling networks that exist in the area.&nbsp;<br /><br />Further c=
onflict in the area between militias and IEA members is likely in the short=
 term (24-72 hrs) as IEA members seek to regain the three districts in the =
coming days. IEA members described the renewed conflict as a betrayal of th=
e amnesty agreements struck with former ANSF and PGM members in the three d=
istricts and reportedly plan to move back into all three districts. Some re=
ports suggested a group of IEA members departed Kunduz City for Deh Saleh o=
n 21 August to begin an operation.&nbsp;<br /><br />Conflict is also likely=
 to occur repeatedly in the long term. Members of the militia group gave in=
terviews to the media on 21 August, stating their intent to continue fighti=
ng IEA members and encouraging other groups across Afghanistan to do the sa=
me. If IEA members regain control of the three districts, powerful local mi=
litia commanders and local residents are unlikely to agree to hand over fir=
earms and any negotiated ceasefire between the groups will be fragile, with=
 competition for power and resources likely to continue sporadically at the=
 local level.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to avoid the a=
rea in the short term due to the possibility of further clashes within the =
next 24-48 hours.&nbsp;<br /><br />To secure access and acceptance in the l=
onger term NGOs are advised to maintain contacts with all groups operating =
in the Andarab area, understanding that the situation is fluid and there ma=
y be repeated shifts in control in the coming 12 months.&nbsp;<br /><br />I=
NSO Northeast will monitor the situation and provide updates by email as re=
quired.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA Mobile, Letty Phillips<br /><br /><a href=3D"mailto:sa.mobile@af=
g.ngosafety.org">sa.mobile@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/21082021/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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