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Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2021 08:46:48 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <SN67BZogTK-Gsf9HugqTuw@geopod-ismtpd-2-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: Tenth of Muharram
 (Ashura) Observance
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Ka=
bul City, Multiple Areas</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Tenth of Muharram (Ashura) Observance								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								19/08/2021 07:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The 10th of Muharram, or Ashura=
 Day, will likely be commemorated on 19 August, but the date could change, =
as it is determined according to the Islamic lunar calendar. Ceremonies wil=
l commence as early as the morning of 19 August.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Several Shia mosques and shrines across=
 the city, as per the attached map, are expected to host gatherings and pra=
yers, as well as self-flagellation ceremonies. They reportedly will have th=
eir own unarmed guard surrounding the mosques.&nbsp;<br /><br />The IEA hav=
e provided assurances that the commemorations can take place.&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The 10th of Muharram is a date =
of key importance in the Shia religious calendar, marking the death of Imam=
 Hussein, the grandson of Prophet Mohammad, in Karbala (present-day Iraq) i=
n 680 A.D. The date is also significant for Sunni Muslims. However, Sunni M=
uslims do not usually commemorate the day.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Shia mosques and shrines will host mass=
 gatherings, though in comparison to previous years, where mass intra-city =
religious processions took place, the degree to which commemorations will t=
ake place outside of mosques this year is unclear.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><em>Traffic</em></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Most religious leaders of Shia mosques =
and members of their local community will be organising their own religious=
 ceremonies with limited coordination with neighbouring communities. Lack o=
f coordination between communities may result in unplanned road closures, t=
hough with traffic levels in Kabul City remaining reduced, the impact on mo=
vements throughout the city is unclear.&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><em>Threat of Attacks</em></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">There were no attacks targeting partici=
pants of Ashura observance in 2018, 2019, and 2020, and the IEA has provide=
d assurances that the commemorations can take place this year unhindered. H=
owever, IS-KP has previously targeted civilians gathered to commemorate Shi=
a religious events, including Ashura. It is possible that the group may tak=
e advantage of the transition of power to launch attacks.&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In 2016, on 11 October, five alleged IS=
-KP members entered the Kart-e Sakhi shrine and opened fire on worshippers =
during prayers on the evening before Ashura. ANSF responded, killing two of=
 the attackers, while two others detonated their explosive vests, and anoth=
er escaped the area. The attack killed 18 people and wounded 65 others. In =
2017, on 29 September, the day before Ashura, a BBIED operative detonated h=
is device as prayer participants were exiting Hussainia Mosque on Street 7,=
 Qala-e Fatullah area of PD 10. The blast killed six people and wounded 28 =
others.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />So far in 2021, 17 attacks likely=
 authored by IS-KP took place in Kabul City, of which 16 were IED-type atta=
cks (including 13 MIED attacks) and one was a rocket strike. At least eight=
 of these attacks demonstrate a clear sectarian dimension, intended to crea=
te divisions within Afghan society. Most recently, on 12 June, an MIED deto=
nated against a passenger van-type vehicle in the Golayee Mahtab Qala area =
of PD6. A member of the Hazara community owned the vehicle, and the vehicle=
 was transporting members from the same community. The blast killed six civ=
ilians (including two women) and wounded two others civilians, all of whom =
were members of the Hazara community. IS-KP claimed responsibility for the =
attack.<br /><br />In contrast to previous years, however, IS-KP IED attack=
s in 2021 have generally employed low-yield devices. That said, on 12 Novem=
ber 2020, IS-KP members initiated an IDF attack against the official reside=
nces and offices of foreign governments, as well as GOA facilities located =
in the Green Zone using two vehicles rigged as improvised mobile launching =
pads on secondary roads. As a result, 10 civilians were killed and 51 other=
s were wounded. The attack originated from Badam Bagh area of PD 17, and Gu=
l Surkh area of PD 4.&nbsp;<br /><br />Given that IS-KP remains a spoiler a=
ctor within the current political transition, it is possible that the group=
 will attempt to launch symbolic attacks against the Ashura ceremonies.&nbs=
p;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><em>Criminality</em></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Criminal activity, including petty crim=
e in crowded areas, continues to be an element of the Kabul security enviro=
nment and is unlikely to ebb over Ashura.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to restrict no=
n-essential movement from 1600 hrs on 18 August and until the 2100 hrs on 1=
9 August. If movement is necessary, it is recommended to allow ample time f=
or travel, and to seek information about possible road closures.<br /><br /=
></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGO staff members are advised to avoid =
large gatherings, and to choose, to the extent possible, lower-profile area=
s to observe Ashura.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">If moving in crowded areas is necessary=
, NGO staff should remain aware of the risk of crime and continue to mainta=
in a low profile by avoiding the display of cash and valuable items.<br /><=
br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">INSO will issue separate alerts in the =
event of an incident, as required.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Central, Philip Murphy</p>
<a title=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org" href=3D"mailto:sa.central@=
afg.ngosafety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/18082021/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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