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Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2021 06:30:51 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KABUL: Eid al-Adha Religious
 Observance
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								<p>Afghanistan, Kabul Province, Kabul City, Multiple Locations</p>	=
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Eid al-Adha Religious Observance								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								20/07/2021 08:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The three days of Eid al-Adha w=
ill be officially observed beginning on 20 July, with public and private ob=
servances anticipated throughout the city.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On the first day of Eid al-Adha, religi=
ous observances are expected to begin at either 0800 or 0900 hrs at most mo=
sques in the capital, lasting for approximately one hour. VIP participation=
 is scheduled at the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/qztMrJF9ZVMajTQu5">Pres=
idential Palace</a> in PD 2,<a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/poNEpAeRLZrRRaHF=
7"> Eid Gah Mosque</a> in PD 1, the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/T8u2GJ6H=
4oy6K7K49">Abdul Rahman Mosque</a> in PD 2, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/=
Y4WaRXgrSk6aY5EZ6">Puli Kheshti Mosque</a> in PD1,&nbsp; and the <a href=3D=
"https://goo.gl/maps/v9yhiCEDxbkANA1o8">Wazir Akbar Khan Mosque</a> in PD 1=
0. This is likely to result in temporary road closures on the morning of 20=
 July, even as ANSF plans could not be confirmed at the time of writing.<br=
 /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">ANSF posture will increase across the c=
ity during the duration of the Eid al-Adha period.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Throughout the religious observance, pe=
riodic celebratory SAF is expected in multiple city areas in the evening ho=
urs and into the night.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">High-profile attacks have histo=
rically not been witnessed during the Eid-al Adha period. During the Eid al=
-Adha religious observance period in 2020, criminals were the sole actor au=
thoring four robberies.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Conflict and criminal actors authored n=
ine security incidents during the Eid al-Adha religious observance period i=
n 2019, none directly targeting civilians observing the religious events. A=
NSF were the most active over this period arresting suspected OCG members a=
nd OAG supporters. Criminals were the second most active and only other act=
or during this period, authoring three incidents. OAG members authored no i=
ncidents in Kabul during the Eid al-Adha religious observance in 2019.<br /=
><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">There, however, remains a limited possi=
bility that certain OAGs may attempt to conduct high-profile attacks during=
 the period of religious observance. Since 2015, there has been one OAG-aut=
hored incident on the official days of Eid al-Adha. &nbsp;On 21 August 2018=
, the first day of Eid-al-Adha, OAG members fired a large volley of mortar =
rounds towards the Presidential Palace. OAG members fired up to 31 light an=
d heavy mortars, all of which impacted inside the Green Zone, but none resu=
lted in casualties. Shortly after the attack commenced, ANSF attacked the l=
aunch site in the <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/F82qjwbiKMa55TYk9">Bagh Al=
i Mardan area</a>, killing the OAG members. OAG members wounded two ANP mem=
bers during the clash. In addition, six civilians were also wounded by shra=
pnel. IS-KP claimed responsibility for the mortar attack, which coincided w=
ith a live television address by President Ashraf Ghani commemorating the f=
irst day of Eid al-Adha.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Anecdotal reporting suggests that IEA a=
nd the GOA have entered a five-day ceasefire from 19 July. That said, at th=
e time of writing, this report has not been confirmed. The risk of OAG atta=
cks on ANSF and the government personnel and facilities remains extant in K=
abul City during Eid al-Adha.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Furthermore, the targeting of public ga=
therings in 2020 indicates that such attacks cannot be ruled out over this =
period of religious observance. The first of these incidents occurred on 06=
 March 2021 when two OAG members attacked a ceremony of over 1,000 people o=
n the 25th anniversary of the death of Abdul Ali Mazari (also known as &lsq=
uo;Baba Mazari&rsquo;). The second incident occurred 19 days later, on 25 M=
arch 2020, when an OAG member attacked a Ddharamshala (Sikh place of worshi=
p). These pair of incidents resulted in 149 civilian casualties.<br /><br /=
></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs and their staff will likely experi=
ence significant traffic delays as ANSF close roads for VIP movements and a=
round the religious observance sites. Traffic is expected to be heavier on =
the morning of 20 July as residents attend prayers and shop but will likely=
 subside for the rest of the religious observance period.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Criminal activity, including petty crim=
e in crowded areas, continues to be an element of the Kabul security enviro=
nment and is unlikely to ebb over the religious observance period.</div>			=
					</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs managers should ensure tha=
t NGO movements on the morning of 20 July avoid venues where VIPs participa=
te in prayers as part of the religious observance period.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Furthermore, NGO staff members are advi=
sed to avoid large gatherings and to choose, to the extent possible, lower-=
profile areas to observe Eid al-Adha.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">If moving in crowded areas is necessary=
, NGO staff should remain aware of the risk of crime and maintain a low pro=
file by avoiding the display of cash and valuable items.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Should celebratory fire occur close to =
their locations, NGO staff are advised to stay indoors and clear of windows=
. NGO staff are also strongly encouraged to avoid participating in celebrat=
ory firing. &nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">INSO will issue separate alerts in the =
event of an incident, as required. &nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Central, Philip Murphy</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.or=
g</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/19072021/#001 								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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