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Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2021 16:51:11 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <PrEKgoKyTrGiVzhsU_D27w@geopod-ismtpd-1-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= KAPISA: Increased OAG
 Activity
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
4; margin: 0 auto; background: #fff; text-align: center; border-collapse: c=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Kapisa Province, Tagab District, <a href=3D"https://go=
o.gl/maps/8GCQw3LtnWDHamkk9">DAC Area</a>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Increased OAG Activity								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								22/06/2021 10:30								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 21 June, approximately 100 A=
NSF members tactically withdrew from an ANA base in the Jalow Khail area of=
 Tagab District to the DAC area. ANSF withdrew before OAG members, numberin=
g approximately 150 fighters, could lay siege to the base. Further details =
are available in INSO Alert: AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/A/20062021/#002-U1.<br /><=
br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At approximately 1030 hrs today, 50 OAG=
 members attacked two ANP outposts in the Omer Khail (1) Area, an area no m=
ore than 4 km from the centre of Tagab DAC. Further details are available a=
t INSO Alert: AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/A/22062021/#001-U1.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"margin: 12pt 0in; text-align: justify;">Despite the pro=
ximity of this morning&rsquo;s attack, NGO operations within the DAC remain=
 unchanged. That said, the ANSF attack earlier today is assessed as the fir=
st attempt on the DAC. Based on similar attacks across the Central Region, =
OAGs are expected to besiege the DAC and attack outposts on the periphery w=
ith SAF. The objective of this morning&rsquo;s attack was to cut ANSF suppl=
y routes from Nejrab District. In the coming days, OAG members are expected=
 to draw ANSF positions into SAF clashes. OAG members will use these clashe=
s to deplete ANSF ammunition supplies. Concurrently, OAGs will send local e=
lders to negotiate a surrender of the DAC. At the time of writing, local el=
ders have approached the ANSF garrison in the DAC to start negotiations, th=
ough ANSF is yet to respond.<br /><br />OAG members already exercise effect=
ive control of the route from Tagab DAC south towards Surobi District of Ka=
bul Province. As such, the OAG attack this morning will increase pressure o=
n the already strained ANSF supply chain into the DAC. That said, OAGs have=
 opened the road between Surobi District and Tagab DAC to civilian traffic.=
<br /><br />OAGs hastily planned today&rsquo;s attack. The attack was likel=
y due to the ANSF decision to withdraw from indefensible positions and conc=
entrate in the DAC. The decision led to ANSF abandoning one major base in t=
he Jalow Khail area and ten CPs across Tagab District thus far in June. OAG=
 members, buoyed by the fall of the CPs and ANA base, decided to seize the =
initiative and apply pressure to the DAC. At the time of writing, the numbe=
r of OAG attacks remains below the 12-month average, with only 30 OAG autho=
red attacks in Tagab District thus far in June compared to an average of 32=
 OAG attacks per month. As such, OAG members were likely drawn into attacki=
ng the DAC by ANSF withdrawals.<br /><br />ANSF likely chose to withdraw fr=
om the CPs and the ANA base to focus combat power within the DAC. At the ti=
me of writing, up to 400 ANSF members are defending Tagab DAC. Over the pas=
t few days, ANSF have established multiple defensive rings around the centr=
e of the DAC. ANSF appear to be preparing for a prolonged siege.<br /><br /=
>Historically ANSF have viewed Tagab District as strategically important. T=
he district shares a southern border with Surobi District of Kabul Province=
, which is less than 5 km from the Kabul &ndash; Jalalabad Highway. As such=
, OAGs could use Tagab District to support operations along the highway. Fo=
r this reason, ANSF launched an offensive in June 2020 to clear the area of=
 OAGs in the face of increasing OAG activity in the two months prior. As su=
ch, ANSF will deploy resources to prevent the fall of the DAC or retake it =
if required.</p>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs operating in the DAC are a=
lso advised to conduct an audit of their hibernation plans and stores.<br /=
><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs intending to travel from Kabul Cit=
y to Nejrab District are advised to avoid travel via Tagab District. Instea=
d, NGOs are advised to travel through Parwan Province to reach Nejrab Distr=
ict of Kapisa Province.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Central, Philip Murphy</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"no=
opener noreferrer" data-auth=3D"NotApplicable" data-linkindex=3D"1">sa.cent=
ral@afg.ngosafety.org&nbsp;</a>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/22062021/#001								</div>
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76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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