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Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2021 13:18:49 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_MOBILE_SA <sa.mobile@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <FPmoCGSSRTSmxAV4Oc1CQQ@geopod-ismtpd-5-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - BALKH: ANSF Withdrawal Leaves Four Districts
 Under OAG Control
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Balkh Province, <a=
 href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/cL2i6TPGBqode7Wk8">Balkh</a> District, <a href=
=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/JbNobUwvHB3CyMWXA">Chahar Bolak</a> District, <a hr=
ef=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/B5KQ1cTJSquMhW1t9">Dawlatabad</a> District,<a hre=
f=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/Dzww7f9d6aXBYbW97"> Sholgara</a> District</div>			=
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Change in Territorial Control								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								21/06/2021 16:15								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 20 June, at 1030 hrs, after =
a brief exchange of fire with OAG members, ANSF personnel at Chahar Bolak D=
AC surrendered to OAG members.<br /><br />On 21 June, at 0200 hrs, ANSF mem=
bers withdrew from Dawlatabad DAC with their weapons and vehicles.&nbsp;<br=
 /><br />On 21 June, at 0730 hrs, ANSF personnel withdrew from Sholgara DAC=
 after a series of exchanges of fire with OAG members.&nbsp;<br /><br />On =
21 June, at 1400 hrs, ANSF personnel withdrew from Balkh DAC and relocated =
to Mazar-e Sharif City.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">OAG members are now in control of Balkh=
, Chahar Bolak, Dawlatabad, and Sholgara DACs.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">ANSF members' withdrawal from B=
alkh, Chahar Bolak, Dawlatabad, and Sholgara DACs to Mazar-e Sharif City le=
aves a minimal ANSF presence in the districts to the west of the provincial=
 capital, allowing OAG members to move closer to the security checkpoint co=
ntrolling entry and exit to Mazar-e Sharif City from the west.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />OAG members also now control all =
movements on the Mazar-e Sharif-Shibirghan Road through Balkh and Chahar Bo=
lak districts, although at the time of writing there were no OAG checkpoint=
s in operation on the highway between Mazar-e Sharif and Chahar Bolak.&nbsp=
;<br /><br />The ANSF withdrawals point to a strategy of falling back to de=
fend major cities in response to increased pressure from OAG members on ANS=
F forces across the Northern Region in the past two weeks. ANSF personnel l=
eft each DAC after brief exchanges of fire or without any armed clashes, an=
d none of the DACs were overwhelmed by large-scale OAG attacks. This illust=
rates the deliberate nature of the withdrawals, in contrast to a previous a=
ssault on Dawlatabad DAC in December 2020 when ANSF personnel engaged in a =
prolonged clash with OAG members that killed two ANA soldiers and wounded f=
ive more to defend the DAC.&nbsp;<br /><br />OAG members are therefore like=
ly to remain in control of the districts over the short and medium-term, wi=
th no ANSF clearing operations expected in the coming seven days.&nbsp;<br =
/><br />The withdrawal strategy also indicates ANSF intent to prioritise de=
fending&nbsp; Mazar-e Sharif City. ANSF maintain a very strong presence in =
Mazar-e Sharif City, with ANP, ANBP, and NDS headquarters located in the ci=
ty in addition to the 209<sup>th</sup> Corps base in Dehdadi District appro=
ximately 10 km from the city centre. At the time of writing, there were app=
roximately 500-700 OAG members in Balkh, Chahar Bolak, and Sholgara distric=
ts, indicating that the OAG would not have sufficient manpower to attack an=
d overrun the city. OAG members reportedly plan to focus on the smaller pro=
vincial capitals of Sar-e Pul and Maymana, which are currently encircled by=
 OAG members, rather than to make any attempt to capture Mazar-e Sharif.&nb=
sp;</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs are advised to minimise tr=
avel to Sholgara, Balkh, Dawlatabad, and Chahar Bolak in the short term. Th=
e shift in territorial control means that existing access arrangements may =
need to be reinforced, though there is no indication that OAG members will =
place additional restrictions on access. NGOs are therefore advised to reac=
h out to local contacts to ensure previous access arrangements are still va=
lid before travelling to these areas.&nbsp;<br /><br />NGO staff travelling=
 on the Mazar-e Sharif-Shibirghan Highway should be prepared to encounter O=
AG checkpoints on the route. NGOs are advised to ensure that staff travelli=
ng on this route are prepared to explain their programming to conflict acto=
rs, emphasizing the neutral, impartial, and independent nature of their wor=
k.&nbsp;<br /><br />NGOs are advised to maintain close contact with local n=
etworks and community members for up-to-date information on the evolving se=
curity situation in the districts discussed above.&nbsp;</div>								</div=
>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Mobile, Letty Phillips</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:%20sa.mobile@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.mobile@afg.ngosafety.o=
rg</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTH/R/21062021/#001								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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