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Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2021 18:21:00 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_NORTHEAST_SA <sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= BAGHLAN: Change in
 Territorial Control
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
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enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D" width: 580px;  border:1px solid #C1C2C=
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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Afghanistan, Baghlan Province, =
Jelga District, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/segptD2y7ozt6E5R7">DAC</a> A=
rea</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Change in Territorial Control								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								20/06/2021 19:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At the time noted above, OAG me=
mbers took control of the Jelga DAC area, in Baghlan Province. Local ANSF/P=
GM members and GOA representatives, including the District Governor (DG), h=
ad left the district centre to neighbouring Khost District roughly two hour=
s before, at around 1700 hrs.<br /><br />Over the past months, OAG members =
have taken control of Jelga DAC, Burka DAC, Dahana-e Ghori DAC, and Doshi D=
AC areas.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Local ANSF and PGM members with=
drew from the district centre to avoid confrontation with the armed opposit=
ion, likely anticipating OAG capacity to overrun the area if pro-government=
 forces from elsewhere did not provide support. With this tactical move, AN=
SF/PGMs avoided having casualties and prevented OAG members from seizing we=
apons, ammunition, vehicles, and other assets.<br /><br />The recent takeov=
er&nbsp;has occurred amidst a series of coordinated OAG attacks on district=
 centres and main roads across the Northeastern Region and other parts of t=
he country.&nbsp;Indeed, earlier this month, on 05 June, OAG members attack=
ed the Jelga DAC area, probably testing the ANSF response for a potential f=
uture larger assault (see AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/A/05062021/#001-U3). Furthe=
rmore, the armed opposition has recently taken control of the Doshi DAC (se=
e AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/A/20062021/#007-U1), Dahana-e Ghori DAC (see AFGHAN=
ISTAN/NORTHEAST/A/18062021/#001-U1), and Burka DAC areas (see AFGHANISTAN/N=
ORTHEAST/R/05052021/#001). In addition, OAG members have exerted further pr=
essure on the Baghlan-e Jadid DAC area (see AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/A/1405202=
1/#001-U5 and AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/A/15062021/#001-U2). Pro-government for=
ces have often withdrawn tactically and local actors have mediated to avoid=
 further violence on other occasions.<br /><br />As of the time of writing,=
 it is unclear whether OAG members will attempt to retain control of the Je=
lga DAC and other areas taken recently or, on the contrary, will withdraw s=
oon anticipating an ANSF response. Government forces, on their side, are pr=
ioritizing their positions in different parts of the Northeastern Region an=
d elsewhere, rather than trying to immediately retake control of all areas =
lost recently. Whether ANSF/PGM members will launch clearing operations in =
Baghlan Province soon also remains unclear.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">NGOs operating districts witnes=
sing conflict activity recently are advised to limit non-essential movement=
s for the time being, considering the risk of collateral damage and the pos=
sibility of escalation. In this sense, NGO staff should consider, particula=
rly, the risk of IED contamination along primary and secondary roads and ai=
rstrikes targeting positions of warring parties. In the event of armed clas=
hes, NGO staff are recommended to remain indoors, away from windows, and co=
nsider to seek shelter inside safe rooms or hardened structures.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />Furthermore, NGOs are advised to =
consider changes in territorial control, with the staff prepared to explain=
 their programming, emphasizing the neutral, impartial, and independent nat=
ure of their work.<br /><br />In addition, humanitarian agencies are recomm=
ended to closely monitor conflict activity in Baghlan and neighbouring prov=
inces. NGOs should maintain close contact with local networks and interlocu=
tors for up-to-date information on the evolving security situation.<br /><b=
r />Lastly, NGOs are further recommended to ensure that communication and r=
eporting channels with their staff remain operational.<br /><br />INSO Nort=
heast will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates by email a=
s required.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Northeast, Rub&eacute;n Rivero</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.northeast@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.northeast@afg.ngosafet=
y.org</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/NORTHEAST/R/20062021/#002								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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