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Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2021 06:44:39 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Subject: INSO UPDATE 2: REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= DAYKUNDI:
 Heightened OAG Presence
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:15.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;
									UPDATE 2: 									</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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g=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0">
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Daykundi Province, Pato District,&nbsp; <a href=3D"htt=
ps://goo.gl/maps/6LKVazkRfEYEjkqF8">Pato DAC</a> and <a href=3D"https://goo=
.gl/maps/1UfXersedsHkBbGYA">Tamzan Valley</a> Areas								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Heightened OAG Presence 								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								10/06/2021 02:00								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
INFORMATION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 20 June, 1000 hrs=
:</strong>&nbsp; OAG members are continuing their siege of Pato DAC. ANSF r=
emain in control of the DAC, with the community supporting ANSF with suppli=
es.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Meanwhile, in the Tamzan Valley, OAG me=
mbers and ANSF remain in their positions. ANSF retain control of the outpos=
ts within the valley. Both sides continue to exchange sporadic SAF.&nbsp;<b=
r /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">ANSF forces continue to occupy position=
s in the Kotal Tamzan area &ndash; an area of high ground overlooking the T=
amzan Valley. However, the deployment of IEDs has blocked numerous ANSF adv=
ances south towards the Tamzan Valley and Pato DAC.</div>								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
ADVICE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Due to the increased IED contam=
ination and continued exchange of the SAF, NGOs are advised to avoid moveme=
nts in the Tamzan Valley and the areas surrounding Pato DAC. In addition, N=
GOs based in Nili City are advised not to move south towards Pato District.=
<br /><br />INSO Central will continue to monitor the situation and provide=
 email updates as required.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INITIAL =
REPORT</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 11 June, 1500 hrs=
:</strong> ANSF and OAGs continue to remain static in both areas. That said=
, OAGs and ANSF continue to exchange periodic SAF from their positions in t=
he Tamzan Valley.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At approximately 1800 hrs on 10 June, A=
AF conducted a heavy rocket airstrike against OAG positions in the Tamzan V=
alley, killing 12 OAG members.&nbsp;<br /><br />The previous advisory remai=
ns in place.</div>
<br />
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 10 June, at 0200 hrs:</st=
rong> Two senior IEA leaders and a force of approximately 100 OAG members l=
eft Gizab District in Uruzgan Province and crossed into neighbouring Pato D=
istrict. At the time of writing, OAGs have split into two forces. The first=
 group of OAGs have occupied positions around ANSF CPs located in the Tamza=
n Valley. Meanwhile, the second group has occupied positions surrounding Pa=
to DAC. Reportedly, OAGs have laid siege to the CPs in the Tamzan Valley an=
d Pato DAC by encircling them with IEDs. OAGs are attempting to negotiate -=
 through community elders - an ANSF withdrawal from both areas. At the time=
 of writing, the ANSF garrison - of approximately 60 personnel - in Pato DA=
C and ANSF members in Tamzan Valley CPs have remained in their positions. I=
n response to OAG activity in Pato District, at approximately 1000 hrs, ANS=
F deployed a combined task group of 250 ANSF members to the Kotal Tamzan ar=
ea &ndash; an area of high ground overlooking the Tamzan Valley. At the tim=
e of writing, no side has launched a coordinated attack. That said, both si=
des have exchanged sporadic SAF in the Tamzan Valley.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong><em>Analysis<br /></em></strong=
><br />The mission of ANSF in Kotal Tamzan is to block any OAG advance to t=
he provincial capital of Nili City. ANSF hold an advantage in terms of both=
 size and terrain over the OAGs in the Tamzan Valley. As such, there is cur=
rently no threat to Nili City.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The disposition of OAGs and their conta=
ct with ANSF in Pato DAC suggest that the mission of OAGs is to capture Pat=
o DAC and not Nili City. OAGs are most likely focussing on Pato DAC as a pa=
rt of a broader effort to develop an additional supply route that links the=
 provinces of Ghor, Uruzgan and Ghazni. If OAGs capture Pato DAC, they are =
unlikely to move towards ANSF strongholds in Nili City but rather move thei=
r focus west towards the districts of Kiti and Nawmish.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Currently, the objective of OAG forces =
in the Tamzan Valley is to prevent ANSF reinforcements from reaching the Pa=
to DAC. OAGs have tactically sited RCIEDs on key roads entering Pato Distri=
ct to compensate for their numerical disadvantage. The tactic appears to be=
 successful, with ANSF adopting a defensive posture overlooking the valley.=
 Meanwhile, the objective of the second force is to lay siege to the DAC un=
til the surrender of ANSF members. In the next 24 hours, OAGs will most lik=
ely commence harassing SAF attacks against the DAC and outposts in the peri=
phery, forcing ANSF members to deplete their limited supply of ammunition a=
nd surrender.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">OAGs have used this tactic to great eff=
ect in the capture of Jalrez DAC and Nerkh DAC in Wardak Province. That sai=
d, OAGs face a unique set of challenges in Pato District. Unlike in Wardak =
Province, OAGs do not have strong levels of community support in areas surr=
ounding the DAC. The communities in the DAC and surrounding areas also main=
tain a well-armed militia who will most likely supplement the ANSF garrison=
 in Pato DAC. In addition, a force of approximately 100 OAG members spread =
across the DAC and Tamzan Valley may not have the supplies and equipment to=
 sustain a prolonged siege in both locations.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>Advice<br /><br /></strong></di=
v>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Due to the increased risk of armed clas=
hes, NGOs operating in Pato District are advised to suspend activities in a=
nd around Pato DAC and Tamzan Valley. NGOs based in Nili City are advised n=
ot to move south towards Pato District. NGOs should also account for staff =
who reside in the title areas and advise them to take shelter away from hig=
h-profile targets (such as ANSF positions).</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Central, Philip Murphy</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.or=
g</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/10062021/#001-U2								</div>
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rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
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hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
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ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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