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Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2021 15:21:03 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <9S_BikcoQSOHjnic6aaW1Q@geopod-ismtpd-1-2>
Subject: INSO REPORT =?UTF-8?B?4oCTIEFGRyDigJM=?= DAYKUNDI: Heightened OAG
 Presence
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Daykundi Province, Pato District,&nbsp; <a href=3D"htt=
ps://goo.gl/maps/6LKVazkRfEYEjkqF8">Pato DAC</a> and <a href=3D"https://goo=
.gl/maps/1UfXersedsHkBbGYA">Tamzan Valley</a> Areas								</div>
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3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Heightened OAG Presence 								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								10/06/2021 02:00								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">At approximately 0200 hrs, two =
senior IEA leaders and a force of approximately 100 OAG members left Gizab =
District in Uruzgan Province and crossed into neighbouring Pato District. A=
t the time of writing, OAGs have split into two forces. The first group of =
OAGs have occupied positions around ANSF CPs located in the Tamzan Valley. =
Meanwhile, the second group has occupied positions surrounding Pato DAC. Re=
portedly, OAGs have laid siege to the CPs in the Tamzan Valley and Pato DAC=
 by encircling them with IEDs. OAGs are attempting to negotiate - through c=
ommunity elders - an ANSF withdrawal from both areas. At the time of writin=
g, the ANSF garrison - of approximately 60 personnel - in Pato DAC and ANSF=
 members in Tamzan Valley CPs have remained in their positions. In response=
 to OAG activity in Pato District, at approximately 1000 hrs, ANSF deployed=
 a combined task group of 250 ANSF members to the Kotal Tamzan area &ndash;=
 an area of high ground overlooking the Tamzan Valley. At the time of writi=
ng, no side has launched a coordinated attack. That said, both sides have e=
xchanged sporadic SAF in the Tamzan Valley.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The mission of ANSF in Kotal Ta=
mzan is to block any OAG advance to the provincial capital of Nili City. AN=
SF hold an advantage in terms of both size and terrain over the OAGs in the=
 Tamzan Valley. As such, there is currently no threat to Nili City.<br /><b=
r /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The disposition of OAGs and their conta=
ct with ANSF in Pato DAC suggest that the mission of OAGs is to capture Pat=
o DAC and not Nili City. OAGs are most likely focussing on Pato DAC as a pa=
rt of a broader effort to develop an additional supply route that links the=
 provinces of Ghor, Uruzgan and Ghazni. If OAGs capture Pato DAC, they are =
unlikely to move towards ANSF strongholds in Nili City but rather move thei=
r focus west towards the districts of Kiti and Nawmish.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Currently, the objective of OAG forces =
in the Tamzan Valley is to prevent ANSF reinforcements from reaching the Pa=
to DAC. OAGs have tactically sited RCIEDs on key roads entering Pato Distri=
ct to compensate for their numerical disadvantage. The tactic appears to be=
 successful, with ANSF adopting a defensive posture overlooking the valley.=
 Meanwhile, the objective of the second force is to lay siege to the DAC un=
til the surrender of ANSF members. In the next 24 hours, OAGs will most lik=
ely commence harassing SAF attacks against the DAC and outposts in the peri=
phery, forcing ANSF members to deplete their limited supply of ammunition a=
nd surrender.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">OAGs have used this tactic to great eff=
ect in the capture of Jalrez DAC and Nerkh DAC in Wardak Province. That sai=
d, OAGs face a unique set of challenges in Pato District. Unlike in Wardak =
Province, OAGs do not have strong levels of community support in areas surr=
ounding the DAC. The communities in the DAC and surrounding areas also main=
tain a well-armed militia who will most likely supplement the ANSF garrison=
 in Pato DAC. In addition, a force of approximately 100 OAG members spread =
across the DAC and Tamzan Valley may not have the supplies and equipment to=
 sustain a prolonged siege in both locations.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Due to the increased risk of ar=
med clashes, NGOs operating in Pato District are advised to suspend activit=
ies in and around Pato DAC and Tamzan Valley. NGOs based in Nili City are a=
dvised not to move south towards Pato District. NGOs should also account fo=
r staff who reside in the title areas and advise them to take shelter away =
from high-profile targets (such as ANSF positions).<br /><br />INSO Central=
 will continue to monitor the situation and provide email updates as requir=
ed.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Central, Philip Murphy</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.or=
g</a>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/10062021/#001 								</div>
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				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
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