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Date: Thu, 29 Apr 2021 09:34:48 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_MOBILE2_SA <sa.mobile2@afg.ngosafety.org>
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Message-ID: <OgA_TK9gSGyIZo17gcHo2w@geopod-ismtpd-4-0>
Subject: INSO REPORT - AFG - KABUL AND COUNTRY-WIDE: The Implications for NGOs
 of the Missed 01 May 2021 Deadline for Troop Withdrawal
To: Reza Jamal <logistic.manager@jack.ngo>

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									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
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EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
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								Afghanistan, Kabul and Country-wide								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								The Implications for NGOs of the Missed 01 May 2021 Deadline for Tr=
oop Withdrawal								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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								01/05/2021 00:00								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INFORMAT=
ION</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">On 14 April, US President Joe B=
iden announced that the US would, unconditionally, withdraw all troops from=
 Afghanistan by 11 September 2021. The US announcement was followed by a si=
milar commitment from NATO's Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg. Shortly a=
fter the US and NATO announcements, IEA released a statement saying that th=
ey interpreted the new withdrawal date as a violation of the February 2020 =
US-IEA agreement, which stated 01 May as the deadline for full troop withdr=
awal, despite US and NATO attempts to portray the new September deadline as=
 being in accordance with the agreement. Furthermore, IEA stated that failu=
re to comply with the US-IEA agreement and its 01 May deadline would justif=
y the group to take any measures towards the occupying forces without blame=
, implying that resuming attacks towards IMF would be justified.&nbsp;<br /=
><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">During his announcement on 14 April, Pr=
esident Biden highlighted that any assault on withdrawing forces would be a=
cted upon with all necessary means, warning IEA not to resume attacks on wi=
thdrawing IMF troops. On 24 April, the Pentagon announced that in order to =
provide options to secure withdrawing troops, two US Air Force B-52H Strato=
fortress aircraft had arrived in the region, the deployment of an aircraft =
carrier in the Arabian Sea had been extended, and more US special forces we=
re expected to be deployed to the country.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In recent days, multiple foreign embass=
ies and consulates have advised respective national citizens currently loca=
ted in Afghanistan to leave the country before 01 May. Furthermore, several=
 foreign embassies and consulates have reduced the number of expatriate sta=
ff in the country, with the expectation that the security environment will =
deteriorate significantly on 01 May. However, per the information available=
 to INSO as of the time of writing, most NGOs have retained partial or full=
 international presence inside Afghanistan, including in locations outside =
of Kabul.</div>								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ANALYSIS=
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								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In September 2019, the US Presi=
dent at the time, Donald Trump, halted talks with the IEA just days before =
an agreement, which included an initial plan for troop withdrawal, was to b=
e signed between the group and the US Government. Officially, the talks wer=
e cancelled in response to an IEA authored attack in Kabul on 05 September =
2019, which killed two IMF members, among 26 others. The attack was conduct=
ed using an SVBIED targeting a convoy waiting to access an NDS checkpoint i=
n PD 9 of Kabul City. This attack occurred just days after a complex attack=
 targeting the Green Village Compound on 02 September 2019, which also resu=
lted in a high number of casualties, including 12 foreign nationals.&nbsp;<=
br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">After the US ceased talks with the IEA =
in September 2019, IEA issued a statement condemning the US decision and th=
reatening to conduct retaliation attacks. Despite the IEA communicating an =
intent, it did not materialise into complex or high-profile attacks on US t=
argets, but predominantly into more symbolic low-impact attacks, such as ro=
cket attacks on IMF bases. While the current situation regarding the postpo=
ned withdrawal deadline and the abrupt decision to withdraw from US-IEA tal=
ks in 2019 differs in many ways, they share some similarities that might be=
 indicative of some of the IEA's current considerations on how to respond o=
n 01 May 2021, when the original US-IEA agreement deadline passes. For inst=
ance, in 2019, IEA communicated no willingness to compromise, instead, thre=
atening retaliatory attacks on US targets. However, the threats were not ac=
ted upon: there were no high impact attacks on IMF targets. A possible cont=
ributing factor to this was that IEA was not willing to jeopardise a possib=
le IMF troop withdrawal, finally in sight after so many years of conflict. =
While this was possibly one consideration, other factors did almost certain=
ly also affect the outcome. At the time, negotiations for high-profile pris=
oner releases were underway, the US desire to actually withdraw troops was =
not as strong as it is in the current situation and internal consultations =
were ongoing, as is also the case now. All these factors likely contributed=
 to the IEA decision. However, the above indicates that IEA likely does inc=
lude the risk of jeopardising troop withdrawal as a consideration when deci=
ding how to react. The same consideration is also likely to impact the scal=
e and impact of possible IEA attacks on 01 May 2021.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div=
>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Indeed, IEA will most likely conduct at=
tacks on 01 May to display discontent of the US not keeping their promises =
on the deadline for troop withdrawal. However, IEA will also be considering=
 the risk of disrupting the withdrawal, among other factors.&nbsp; The curr=
ent unconditioned withdrawal plan leaves the IEA in a position to display t=
he end of the 20-year long conflict as a victory both within its organisati=
on and externally, despite attempts by the US and NATO to control the narra=
tive. Conducting attacks that will force the US to act upon threats to reta=
liate and defend with all measures at their disposal could potentially jeop=
ardise that narrative, another consideration that will possibly affect the =
outcome. IEA will, however, also be considering internal cohesion, with ele=
ments within the IEA demanding consequences for the US breach of the agreed=
 deadline. Moreover, maintaining public credibility is likely a critical co=
nsideration for IEA. Therefore, IEA will likely seek to conduct attacks tha=
t display clear dissatisfaction with the decision while still considering t=
he risks outlined above.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is uncertain how the IEA's dissatisf=
action will materialise. One factor contributing to the uncertainty is the =
unknown content of the secret annexes to the US-IEA agreement and the uncer=
tainty of the US's continuation to adhere to them. It is unknown whether th=
e hidden annexes included any agreements beneficial to the IEA that the US =
has now abandoned as the withdrawal is no longer conditions-based. Abandonm=
ent of such agreements could drive dissatisfied IEA members to advocate for=
 retaliation despite the potential risks. However, if such agreements in th=
e annexes do not exist, if US abandonment of such agreements does not have =
significant consequences to the IEA, or if the cohesion in the IEA is stron=
g enough, IEA would arguably gain a strategic advantage in potential diplom=
atic negotiations and the later conflict, by waiting to fully escalate the =
conflict to after the withdrawal of IMF.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The ability of IEA to conduct attacks o=
n US targets, showing discontent towards breaches of the US-IEA agreement b=
ut not jeopardising plans to withdraw, was shown in late March, when IEA co=
nducted multiple rocket attacks on US Camp Chapman, and again in early Apri=
l when IEA conducted a rocket attack on Kandahar Airfield. In all cases, IE=
A officially claimed responsibility for the attacks and in the case of the =
Camp Chapman attacks, they justified it as retaliation for perceived breach=
es to the US-IEA agreement. However, while these attacks served the purpose=
 for IEA to display discontent towards the US, the impact was minimal and a=
llowed the US to deliberately downplay the attacks not to let it affect the=
ir objective of proceeding towards a troop withdrawal.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IEA will most likely conduct attacks on=
 01 May to show discontent with the international forces still in-country. =
However, the group will likely seek to conduct attacks that are more symbol=
ic in nature, minimizing international casualties. This objective could be =
reached through rocket attacks on the military zone of the airport in Kabul=
, as well as the Green Zone, and other IMF camps throughout the country.<br=
 /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Furthermore, IEA may seek to conduct hi=
gh-profile attacks in urban population centres on 01 May to send a signal i=
nternally and externally. Such high-profile attacks have historically prove=
n most effective in Kabul. However, attacks in other larger cities througho=
ut the country can not be ruled out. High-profile attacks can take the form=
 of a variety of IEDs, including BBIEDs, MIEDs and possibly, to a lower ext=
ent, high-yield IEDs such as SVBIEDs. Such attacks will most likely target =
ANSF and the GOA but symbolic attempts towards IMF targets can not be ruled=
 out. That said, considering the physical security around IMF installations=
 and the fact that IMF will likely be on high alert (including not be condu=
cting road movements) on 01 May, the impact of these attacks may be limited=
. The abovementioned targets will likely be perceived to have a lesser impa=
ct on eventual IMF troop withdrawal while still sending a clear signal of d=
iscontent. Furthermore, such attacks will demonstrate IEA capacity and will=
 seek to undermine, once again, the security perception of ANSF and, thus, =
the ability of ANF/GOA to protect the population.&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">IEA-initiated offensives in multiple pr=
ovinces &ndash; on, for example, provincial capitals &ndash; around the cou=
ntry are less likely on 01 May, but cannot be ruled out. High impact offens=
ives towards important provinces could provide the US with an excuse to con=
duct attacks that will cause IEA significant loss of assets critical to the=
 fight after the withdrawal. Offensives would serve the purpose of undermin=
ing the GOA while demonstrating IEA capability. However, it is assessed tha=
t the IEA are fully aware that such offensives are expensive in terms of lo=
ss of human resources, especially if the IMF interferes. While IEA likely h=
as the capability to overrun provincial capitals, in most instances they ar=
e not able to hold them for an extended period of time, making it more cost=
-effective and less risky to initiate such offensives after an IMF troop wi=
thdrawal. That said, possible preparations for an attack on Ghazni have alr=
eady been observed (see INSO REPORT: AFGHANISTAN/SOUTHEAST/R/23042021/#001)=
, and an attempt to do so around 01 May can not be ruled out. <br /><br />A=
n announcement of a spring offensive dedicated to the US breach of the US-I=
EA agreement around 01 May can also not be ruled out. However, again, initi=
ating large scale offensives are more likely after the withdrawal, also con=
sidering that IEA likely wishes to project a preference of diplomacy over c=
onflict and with the Turkey conference not yet completely off the table an =
announcement of a spring offensive would likely be postponed to after Eid.&=
nbsp;&nbsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">It is assessed that the direct threat t=
owards NGOs will not increase on 01 May. However, the risk of collateral ca=
sualties and damage will increase throughout the country on 01 May, possibl=
y to a similar level witnessed prior to the US-IEA agreement. The risk will=
 most likely be highest during movements and conducting activities at or ne=
ar perceived IMF, ANSF or GOA targets, including the military airport or Gr=
een Zone in Kabul.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">ANSF have previously implemented securi=
ty plans to mitigate risks in Kabul on key dates. Measures for such plans o=
ften include blocking roads, increasing ANSF presence, and limiting movemen=
t in the city. However, at the time of writing, there are no indications th=
at such measures will be implemented on 01 May. ANSF is on heightened alert=
, and the recent period has seen targeted operations around Kabul, indicati=
ng a more intelligence-led disruption approach than the historical protecti=
on strategy. However, increased security generally starts the night prior t=
o a key date, and it is still possible that such physical measures will fol=
low the more targeted approach in the capital.&nbsp;</div>								</div>
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								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ADVICE</=
div>
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Based on the above assessment, =
NGOs are advised to undertake the following precautions in the lead up to a=
nd on 01 May:<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Consider preparedness measures, includi=
ng; 1) ensuring that safe-rooms and other physical security measures are in=
 place and functional, 2) ensuring that procedures on how to react in case =
of an attack, including rocket attacks and complex attacks, are in place an=
d rehearsed so that staff are familiar with them, and 3) ensuring that crit=
ical supplies such as food, water, and fuel for generators are available fo=
r at least three days.<br /><br />Ensure awareness by; 1) keeping continuou=
s contact with staff members, 2) keeping updated on developments through lo=
cal media and other sources throughout the day, and 3) monitoring INSO aler=
ts and advisory and consult INSO as needed throughout the day.&nbsp;&nbsp;<=
/div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><br />Limit exposure by; 1) only conduc=
ting critical movements within Kabul and other cities in the country, 2) av=
oiding movements outside cities, 3) avoiding activity close to IMF, ANSF, a=
nd GOA facilities and personnel, where possible, and 4) be prepared to adju=
st behaviour and activities throughout the day as the situation develops.&n=
bsp;<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">INSO Afghanistan will continue to monit=
or the situation and provide email updates as required.</div>								</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								SA Mobile, Martin Hansen<br /><br />sa.mobile2@afg.ngosafety.org			=
					</div>
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lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
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2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
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ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/COUNTRY/R/27042021/#001								</div>
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