JezK

Edit File: 1616391077.M354907P3712197.mocha3025.mochahost.com,S=25759,W=26201:2,S

Envelope-to: faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo
Delivery-date: Mon, 22 Mar 2021 01:31:17 -0400
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2021 05:30:30 +0000 (UTC)
From: INSO_AFG_CENTRAL_SA <sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org>
Mime-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <OHpAcCGpT6ClqjE0fjfOtg@geopod-ismtpd-6-0>
Subject: INSO UPDATE 2: REPORT - AFG - WARDAK: Armed Clash and an ANSF
 Withdrawal From a DAC
To: Faisal Ahmadzai <faisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo>

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC '-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN' 'http://www.w3.org=
/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd'><html><body><head><meta name=3D'viewport'=
 content=3D'initial-scale=3D1.0'><title>Alert Update</title></head><body><c=
enter><table width=3D"580" style=3D"width: 580px; border:1px solid #C1C2C4;=
 background: #fff; text-align: center; border-collapse: collapse;">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td style=3D"width: 100%; height: 27px; background-color: #5376b6; font-=
size: 7.5pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; color: white; vertical-align=
: middle; text-align: center;">
				This report is for the exclusive use of INSO partners and must not be s=
hared outside your organisation			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style=3D"text-align: left;">
				<table style=3D"width: 100%;" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0">
					<tbody>
						<tr>
							<td style=3D"width: 38%;">
								<img src=3D"https://partners.ngosafety.org/assets/img/report.png"/>
							</td>
							<td style=3D"width: 62%">
								<div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:15.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;
									UPDATE 2: 									</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:24.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#5376b6">&nbsp;&nbsp;R=
EPORT</span></div>
									<div><span style=3D"font-size:10.0pt; font-weight: bold; margin: 0=
; padding: 0; font-family:'Arial', sans-serif; color:#182748">&nbsp;&nbsp;&=
nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;ATTENTION RECOMMENDED</span></div>
								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
					</tbody>
				</table>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style=3D"text-align: justify;">
				<table style=3D"width: 100%; border-top: 1px solid #C1C2C4;" cellpaddin=
g=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0">
					<tbody>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">LOCATION=
</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Afghanistan, Wardak Province, <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/PLJsZ3=
yZJRuLh2RHA">Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud</a> and <a href=3D"https://goo.gl/maps/Uw=
QoQuhMCo8r8QrS9">Markaz-e Behsud</a> Districts, DAC areas								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INCIDENT=
 TYPE</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								Armed Clash and an ANSF Withdrawal From a DAC 								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">DATE & T=
IME</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								29/01/2021 17:00								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
INFORMATION</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 22 March, 0900 hr=
s:</strong> On 21 March, ANSF deployed additional forces to Hesa-e Awal-e B=
ehsud District. At the time of writing, an estimated 750 ANSF members occup=
ied positions in the ANP HQ vicinity in Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud DAC. Currently=
, ANSF members are fixed in their positions. That said, they are expected t=
o conduct a clearing operation targeting fighters loyal to Alipur and even =
arrest Alipur himself. That said, anecdotal reporting indicates that Alipur=
 fled Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud before the ANSF deployment.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The increased ANSF presence in the area=
 is in response to the downing of an AAF transport helicopter in the DAC on=
 17 March. Alipur fighters shot down the AAF helicopter, killing nine ANA m=
embers and wounding two others. Anecdotal reporting suggest that Alipur fig=
hters targeted the helicopter, fearing it was a part of an operation to arr=
est Alipur. That said, the above report could not be confirmed. However, th=
e helicopter was most likely conducting a resupply mission and a troop rota=
tion. Based on the distance between the firing point and the helicopter, fi=
ghters loyal to Alipur did not use a rocket-propelled grenade to attack the=
 helicopter. The perpetrators most likely used either a man-portable surfac=
e to air missile or an anti-tank missile system. The circumstances surround=
ing how Alipur acquired such weapons will be covered in a separate report. =
That said, anecdotal reporting indicates that, whilst rare, armed oppositio=
n groups have employed or attempted to use the above types of missiles agai=
nst aircraft in Afghanistan. At the time of writing, the above reports coul=
d not be confirmed.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The downing of the AAF helicopter on 17=
 March further increased tensions between communities loyal to Alipur and t=
he government. A clash on 29 January between ANSF and community members in =
the Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud DAC was the catalyst of the current tension. Two A=
NSF members were wounded, 18 civilians were killed, and another 14 civilian=
s were wounded in the clash.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">In response to the above clash, ANSF de=
ployed an investigation team to the area. On 08 February, the Ministry of I=
nterior Affairs (MOI) announced the suspension of the PCoP for Wardak Provi=
nce, Allah Dad Fedaee, and referred him to the Attorney General's (AGs) Off=
ice for prosecution concerning the 29 January clash. MOI alleges that the f=
ormer PCoP ordered ANSF members to open fire on the assembled crowd after t=
hey had turned violent. At the time of writing, the AGs office has not anno=
unced an investigation into the incident.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Alipur forces continued to target ANSF =
members between 30 January and 16 March, authoring six incidents across the=
 districts of Markaz-e Beshud and Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud. As previously menti=
oned below, on 02 February, Alipur fighters occupied the Markaz-e Beshud DA=
C. In addition, on 16 March, in the Toghi Moshi area of Markaz-e Beshud Dis=
trict, Alipur fighters kidnapped three off-duty ANP members from a private =
passenger bus. Meanwhile, in Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud DAC, fighters loyal to Al=
ipur launched three attacks on the ANP HQ, wounding a total of two ANP memb=
ers.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The ANA helicopter's downing marks a si=
gnificant escalation in activity in the title areas, with prominent governm=
ent and military leaders demanding and promising retaliatory action. On 19 =
March, AAF conducted airstrikes against multiple Alipur controlled outposts=
 in the areas of Khar Zar and Janam in Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud District, killi=
ng four Alipur fighters and wounding three others.</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The increased ANSF presence in Hesa-e A=
wal-e Behsud District and the rhetoric of senior ANSF/government representa=
tives indicate that an armed clash in the area is likely. Concerningly, the=
 implications of any armed clash will reverberate throughout the Central Re=
gion and in areas with significant Hazara populations. As previously mentio=
ned below, ANSF actions against Alipur and his fighters have historically l=
ed to violent protests in Bamyan and Nili cities and the Puli Sukhta area o=
f PD 13 in Kabul City.</div>								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  background: #dcdcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">UPDATED =
ADVICE</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  background: #dc=
dcde;">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisory remains i=
n place.<br /><br /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">INSO Central will issue separate alerts=
 in the event of an armed clash or clearing operation.</div>								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INITIAL =
REPORT</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p style=3D"text-align: justify;"><strong>As of 07 February, at 123=
0 hrs: </strong>A part of the investigation team appointed by Kabul and dep=
loyed to Behsud District last week were still in the title district at the =
time of writing, in an effort to deescalate the situation and resolve the i=
ssue through the involvement of community members in the district. Meanwhil=
e, the Ministry of Interior summoned the Wardak Provincial Chief of Police =
to Kabul to present a detailed report of the situation in person and to dis=
cuss possible solutions.<br /><br />There are approximately 250 ANSF member=
s currently positioned in Behsud District, awaiting instructions based on t=
he outcome of the investigation. The community in the district demands the =
withdrawal of these ANSF troops and the reasons behind the civilian casualt=
ies that occurred in the 29 January incident be clarified.<br /><br />Furth=
ermore, on 04 February at 2100 hrs, the armed members of the community posi=
tioned around the title area discharged SAF without any casualties reported=
. Reports indicate that the armed community members were still in position =
in the title area at the time of writing. <br />Elsewhere in Bamyan City, o=
n 06 February at 1430 hrs, approximately 100 people gathered to demand just=
ice and a thorough investigation regarding the killing of civilians in an a=
rmed clash between ANSF members and armed community members in the Hesa-e A=
wal-e Behsud DAC area of Wardak Province on 29 January.<strong><br /></stro=
ng></p>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">The previous advisories remain in place=
.&nbsp;<br /><strong><br />As of 03 February, at 1000 hrs:</strong> In the =
afternoon of 29 January, the Wardak Provincial Chief of Police (PCoP) met w=
ith community leaders in the Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud DAC, having arrived in th=
e DAC with an entourage of approximately 200 ANSF members. The PCoP arrange=
d the meeting to introduce the new District CoP. At the time of writing, th=
e course of the discussions are unclear. However, after the meeting, at app=
roximately 1700 hrs, an armed clash erupted between ANSF and armed members =
of the community. The clash resulted in the wounding of two ANSF members, a=
s well as 18 civilians killed, and 14 other civilians wounded. The civilian=
 casualties were all supporters of Hazara Commander Alipur. In response, Al=
ipur deployed approximately 100 fighters to the area surrounding the Hesa-e=
 Awal-e Behsud DAC. At the time of writing, ANSF members and Alipur forces =
remain in their positions but have not exchanged further fire. That said, b=
oth parties are on heightened alert as they await the outcome of an investi=
gation into the incident.<br /><br />In the 72 hours following the above in=
cident, Alipur supporters from Bamyan and Daykundi provinces converged on t=
he areas surrounding both Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud and Markaz-e Behsud DACs. In=
 the evening of 02 February, the ANSF garrison and District Administration =
withdrew from the Markaz-e Behsud DAC towards the Naqshin area of Daymirdad=
 District. Following the ANSF withdrawal, fighters loyal to Alipur seized M=
arkaz-e Behsud DAC, at approximately 0000 hrs on 03 February, without any S=
AF exchanged. That said, militia members set fire to at least four abandone=
d ANSF outposts in the DAC<br /><br /><em><strong>Analysis<br /></strong></=
em><br />The exact trigger for the armed clash on 29 January in Hesa-e Awal=
-e Behsud DAC is currently unknown and subject to an ongoing ANSF and GOA i=
nvestigation. Anecdotal reporting suggests that tensions between the commun=
ity and ANSF were elevated before the confrontation, with community members=
 sceptical of the motives of the PCoP, considering he had entered the DAC w=
ith a large ANSF contingent. Conflicting reports have circulated since the =
initial incident. In one report, the ANSF members' presence led to rumours =
within the community that ANSF members intended to arrest Alipur. In anothe=
r report, community members were angered by the dismissal of their former D=
istrict CoP. Therefore, it is possible that armed community members, fearin=
g a pending arrest of Alipur or angered by the appointment of the new Distr=
ict CoP, initiated the armed clash.<br /><br />In another hypothesis, ANSF =
members were startled by the growing crowd and fired into the area. Based o=
n the large number of civilian casualties and the drawn-out investigation, =
the above hypothesis is assessed as the most likely cause of the armed clas=
h. That said, the armed clash's exact cause or causes cannot be confirmed w=
ith multiple and conflicting reports still circulating.<br /><br />As the i=
nvestigation continues, both armed actors will likely remain in place. Cons=
idering the heightened tension and increased security posture in the Hesa-e=
 Awal-e Behsud DAC, an armed clash could occur with little notice. In addit=
ion, an armed clash could commence if Alipur, deems the outcome of the inve=
stigation into the 29 January incident as unsatisfactory.<br /><br />ANSF m=
ost likely decided to withdraw from Markaz-e Behsud DAC on 02 February to d=
efuse the growing tension and avoid an armed confrontation with Alipur supp=
orters. Presumably, ANSF decided to withdraw to the Naqshin area of norther=
n Daymirdad District to avoid further inflaming tensions in Hesa-e Awal-e B=
ehsud DAC.<br /><br />The seizing of Markaz-e Behsud DAC by Alipur forces i=
s the first recorded incident, since 2011, of Alipur and his fighters conte=
sting a DAC. Following the seizure of the DAC, Alipur can claim restitution=
 for the incident on 29 January. In addition, by surrendering the Markaz-e =
Behsud DAC, ANSF may have, by some degree, defused tension in Hesa-e Awal-e=
 Behsud DAC without withdrawing from the latter DAC. It is therefore plausi=
ble, that both parties agreed to exchange Markaz-e Behsud DAC to defuse ten=
sions and avoid further clashes. As such, it is unlikely that Alipur intend=
s to seize further DACs with large Hazara populations.<br /><br />The impli=
cations of the 29 January armed clash and the ANSF withdrawal and the subse=
quent militia seizure of Markaz-e Behsud DAC will reverberate throughout th=
e Central Region and in areas with significant Hazara populations. This was=
 demonstrated on 31 January, when approximately 200 protesters peacefully g=
athered in PD 1 of Bamyan City to condemn the civilian killings in the abov=
e armed clash. In addition, the protesters called for ANSF to withdraw from=
 the in Hesa-e Awal-e Behsud DAC. The above protest ended peacefully after =
a provincial government representative assured the protest leaders that the=
 Provincial Governor would raise the protesters' concerns at the national l=
evel. That said, in the past protests stemming from tensions between the Ha=
zara community and the GOA have turned violent.<br /><br />In late November=
 2018, this was illustrated when nearly 5000 protesters gathered in three s=
eparate protests in Bamyan and Nili cities and in the Puli Sukhta area of P=
D 13 in Kabul City. The protesters gathered to demand the release of Alipur=
, who was arrested on 25 November 2018. The above protests turned violent, =
resulting in a combined casualty count of five killed and 63 wounded. There=
fore, demonstrations in areas with large Hazara populations can be expected=
 if Alipur deems the outcome of the investigation into the 29 January incid=
ent as unsatisfactory, and there is a possibility of them turning violent.<=
br /><br /><em><strong>Advice</strong></em><br /><br />NGOs are advised to =
reconsider non-essential movement and services in the title areas.<br /><br=
 /></div>
<div style=3D"text-align: justify;">Furthermore, NGOs operating in the prov=
incial capitals of Bamyan and Daykundi provinces are advised protests conde=
mning the 29 January incident or against the outcome of the ongoing investi=
gation are likely. In addition, NGOs operating in Kabul City can expect sim=
ilar protests within PD 13. These protests could be planned or spontaneous =
and may turn violent. NGOs are advised to inform staff that any participati=
on in political gatherings has an inherent risk of injury, given that they =
may turn violent.</div>								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">ISSUED B=
Y</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								<p>SA Central, Philip Murphy</p>
<a href=3D"mailto:sa.central@afg.ngosafety.org">sa.central@afg.ngosafety.or=
g</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
												<tr>
							<td width=3D"23%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-weight: bold; width:2=
3.52%; border:none; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; co=
lor:#15274B;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 12.5px 0 0;">INSO SER=
IAL #</div>
							</td>
							<td width=3D"63%" valign=3D"top" style=3D"width:63.58%; font-size: 1=
2.0pt; font-family: 'Arial', sans-serif; line-height:115%;  ">
								<div style=3D"margin: 12.5px 25px; padding: 0 0 12.5px 0; border-bo=
ttom:1px solid #C1C2C4;">
								AFGHANISTAN/CENTRAL/R/03022021/#001-U2								</div>
							</td>
						</tr>
											</tbody>
				</table>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td style=3D"width: 100%; border:1px solid #C1C2C4; background-color:#53=
76b6; padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; height:63px; font-size:7.5pt; font-family:'A=
rial', sans-serif; color:white; text-align: center; vertical-align: middle;=
">
				INSO exists to provide dedicated security services to the NGO community=
. As a free service, INSO and its donors or partners, accept no liability w=
hatsoever for claims as may result from the provision or utilisation of the=
se free services. Whilst every effort is made to the verify data, INSO cann=
ot guarantee the accuracy of information provided. Reproduction of INSO inf=
ormation is prohibited.									<br>
					<a style=3D"color: #ddd; margin-top: 2px;" href=3D"https://partners.ng=
osafety.org//tasks/unsubscribe?email=3Dfaisal.ahmadzai@jack.ngo&list=3DAFG_=
CENTRAL">UNSUBSCRIBE</a>
							</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table></center><img src=3D"http://url2410.afg.ngosafety.org/wf/open?upn=
=3D1xPMNaAb5hQbWbtJAaodVRjep-2F2ikqxeVesJGNK9fSV7eKc6xVzEea6-2B3Vgf-2BC95ws=
P23lt8Z-2Bd-2FnC-2BPHxdz74i6rb8zMGzUB9rxhz5ANdd9fWjFhludq-2FVREfShhOqCxx76s=
KcSNkBvK4FhEo0HL0AORYawyVRPtDBJ9Kp3AtKPHMkVpJxzXERBPbgFulCluoQm1YbO6h9PqmqT=
GFdGXhTIU6IhkT2PZ-2FZDKf6-2BjQQ1iqYCnJqx-2FCQ8z5j5LeRt" alt=3D"" width=3D"1=
" height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1px !important;width:1px !impor=
tant;border-width:0 !important;margin-top:0 !important;margin-bottom:0 !imp=
ortant;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !important;padding-top:0 !im=
portant;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-right:0 !important;padding-left=
:0 !important;"/></body></html>